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Rebuilding plan: Atlantic Cod, Gadus morhua - NAFO Subdivision 3Pn and Divisions 4RS

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Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador Regions:

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Foreword

In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) developed A Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (PA Policy) under the guidance of the Sustainable Fisheries Framework. It outlines the departmental methodology for applying the PA to Canadian fisheries. A key component of the PA Policy requires that when a stock has declined to or below its limit reference point (LRP), a rebuilding plan must be put in place with the aim of having a high probability of the stock growing above the LRP within a reasonable timeframe.

In addition, under section 6.2 of the Fish Stocks provisions (FSP) in the amended Fisheries Act (2019), rebuilding plans must be developed and implemented for prescribed major fish stocks that have declined to or below their LRP. This legislated requirement is supported by section 70 of the Fishery (General) Regulations (FGR), which set out the required contents of those rebuilding plans and establishes a timeline for the development of each rebuilding plan.

The purpose of this plan is to identify the main rebuilding objectives for Atlantic cod the in northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS), as well as the management measures that will be used to achieve these objectives. This plan provides a common understanding of the basic “rules” for rebuilding the stock. This stock is prescribed in the FGR (section 69) and thus is subject to section 6.2 of the Fisheries Act and regulatory requirements.

The objectives and measures outlined in this plan are applicable until the stock has reached its rebuilding target. Once the stock is determined to be at the target, the stock will be managed through the standard Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) or other fishery management process to fulfill the requirements of the FSP. The management measures outlined in this rebuilding plan are mandatory and may be modified or further measures may be added if they fail to result in stock rebuilding.

This rebuilding plan is not a legally binding instrument that can form the basis of a legal challenge. The plan can be modified at any time and does not fetter the Minister’s discretionary powers set out in the Fisheries Act. The Minister can—for reasons of conservation or for any other valid reasons—modify any provision of the rebuilding plan in accordance with the powers granted pursuant to the Fisheries Act.

Decisions flowing from the application of this rebuilding plan must respect the rights of Indigenous Peoples of Canada recognized and affirmed by section 35 of the Constitution Act (1982), including the rights set out in modern treaties. Where DFO is responsible for implementing a rebuilding plan in an area subject to a modern treaty, the rebuilding plan will be implemented in a manner consistent with that agreement. The plan should also be guided by the Supreme Court of Canada’s 1990 Sparrow decision, which found that where an Aboriginal group has a right to fish for food, social and ceremonial purposes, it takes priority—after conservation—over other uses of the resource.

Signed,

The Honourable Diane Lebouthillier
Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard
June 27, 2024

List of figures

List of tables

1 Introduction and context

1.1 Stock distribution

Atlantic cod (hereafter called cod), Gadus morhua, is a groundfish species in the order Gadiformes. The northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (nGSL) population of cod is found in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Pn and Divisions 4R and 4S. This cod population is hereafter referred to as the 3Pn4RS stock (Figure 1).

The cod in NAFO divisions and subdivisions 3Pn4RS undertake annual migrations. In winter, large concentrations are found in the deep waters of subdivision 3Pn and in spring, they move northward and begin spawning off the Port au Port Peninsula (4R) in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). In summer, the cod disperse along the west coast of NL (4R) and the Middle and Lower North Shore of Quebec (4S).

According to numerous tagging studies, the 3Pn4RS stock is fairly isolated from other neighbouring stocks, except for the stock in subdivision 3Ps (southern NL), where recaptures of 3Pn4RS tagged cod are relatively frequent. Recaptures elsewhere outside 3Pn4RS are rare (Bérubé and Fréchet 2001). Movements of the stock towards 3Ps in winter were also observed in the early 1990s (Fréchet and Gagnon 1993; Fréchet et al. 1994).

Figure 1: Different stocks of Atlantic cod from the northwest Atlantic surrounding the 3Pn4RS stock. NAFO unit areas for the 3Pn4RS stock are provided.

1.2 Biological and ecosystem factors affecting the stock

Cod are generalist predators. During the 2015-2017 period, the diet of cod varied depending on their size, with cod less than 30 cm in length feeding on small prey including zooplankton, shrimp (Pandalus borealis) and fish (mainly capelin [Mallotus villosus]), and larger cod consuming a predominance of fish (particularly redfish [Sebastes mentella and S. fasciatus]) (Ouellette-Plante et al. 2020). A number of studies have shown that cod eat very little in winter (Turuk 1968; Tyler 1971; Fordham and Trippel 1999; Schwalme and Chouinard 1999).

Cod are preyed upon by a number of species. Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus harengus) and Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) eat cod larvae, while others predators feed on larger cod. These predators include:

Cannibalism is also occasionally observed in cod (Fréchet et al. 2003; Ouellette-Plante et al. 2020).

An expansion of the grey seal population and a range shift in the nGSL associated with reduced winter ice cover could increase the presence these grey seals in the 3Pn4RS cod ecosystem. The Canadian population of grey seals in the Northwest Atlantic increased from 15,000 animals in the early 1960s to 363,600 individuals in 2021 (Hammill et al. 2023). As the sea-ice cover decreases, however, harp seals will probably be less present in the Gulf, despite the increase in their abundance (Stenson and Hammill 2014; DFO 2020).

On Canada’s east coast, cod reach maturity between ages 4 and 5 (at a size ranging from 45 cm to 55 cm) (DFO 2021; DFO 2022c; Canada-Quebec Cod Recovery Committee 2005). Most spawning takes place below the cold intermediate layer, at depths of over 150 m (Dutil et al. 2005).

The Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem has undergone major changes in recent decades. Since 2009, the deep waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence have been undergoing warming, which has resulted in a decrease in the oxygen concentration. Hypoxic conditions can alter spatial distribution, recruitment, stock abundance and biomass, and can affect ecological relationships. Further details can be found in the "probable causes for the stock’s decline" section.

1.3 Overview of the commercial cod fishery

Since the 1994-1996 moratorium, the 3Pn4RS directed cod commercial fishery has been conducted almost exclusively by inshore fixed gear fleets less than 65 ft (19.81 m) from Quebec (QC) and NL. Directed fishing using:

was authorized until 2021.

When a directed commercial fishery for 3Pn4RS cod is authorized, fishing is conducted in Quebec under a competitive regime on the Upper and Middle North Shore and, an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system is in place for Lower North Shore fleets and for Gaspésie–Lower St. Lawrence fleets using vessels over 45 ft (13.71 m) fleet. In NL, the fishery is managed under a competitive regime with weekly catch limits.

Since 1977, fishing mortality on this stock has been controlled mainly by means of an annual total allowable catch (TAC). TACs are established taking into account the status of the stock. The TAC is distributed in accordance with an established sharing arrangement (see "allocations and governance" section).

Management measures for Canadian commercial groundfish fisheries, including 3Pn4RS cod, are consistent with the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP)for Gulf of St. Lawrence groundfish (NAFO Subdivisions 3Pn and 4Vn and Divisions 4RST), which was established in 2017 and is available online. This IFMP is currently being updated and the measures set out in this rebuilding plan take precedence in the event that any conflicting measures exist with respect to 3Pn4RS cod. Guided by the IFMP and the rebuilding plan, fleet-specific management measures for the 3Pn4RS cod commercial fishery are identified in Conservation Harvesting Plans (CHPs) and licence conditions. Until 1998, the management year corresponded to the calendar year. Since 1999, the management year has been set to begin on May 15 of 1 year and end on May 14 of the following year.

1.4 Other sources of removals

Both in QC and NL, a recreational groundfish fishery that primarily targets cod is authorized annually in Divisions 3Pn4RS. There is no licence requirement for the recreational groundfish fishery and landings are not recorded. However, this fishery is regulated through the length of the fishing season, daily possession limits and authorized gear types (angling gear and handlines). It is monitored through routine patrols, dockside and at-sea inspections, and aerial surveillance to promote compliance with the applicable regulations and management measures. More details on the management of this groundfish fishery are available on the DFO recreational fishing website.

Since 2000, 5 Innu First Nations of the North Shore region of QC have held food, social and ceremonial (FSC) allocations for 3Pn4RS cod under Aboriginal Fisheries Strategy (AFS) agreements. The AFS provides a framework for managing FSC fisheries effectively, in accordance with the Supreme Court of Canada's 1990 Sparrow decision, which confirmed that Indigenous People have the right to fish for FSC purposes under section 35 (1) of the Constitution Act, 1982. Innu First Nation carry out FSC fishing for 3Pn4RS cod using gillnets.

A sentinel fisheries program has been carried out since 1995 through a partnership between DFO and the fishing industry. Sentinel fisheries are conducted within a well-defined framework and provide abundance indices of the resource. Sentinel fishing is conducted with fixed gear (gillnets and longlines) and mobile gear (bottom trawls) under a scientific fishing licence and according to standardized procedures.

The 3Pn4RS cod resource is also caught as bycatch in other directed fisheries, primarily in the Atlantic halibut fishery but also in the:

With the re-opening of the Unit 1 Redfish fishery in 2024, a significant increase in cod bycatch is anticipated in 3Pn4RS.

1.5 Allocations and governance

Cod in 3Pn4RS is managed by Canada and 2.6% of the TAC set by Canada is allocated to Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon in accordance with the Agreement between Canada and France on their Mutual Fishing Relations signed in 1972. This agreement governs the way in which Canada and France cooperate to share different fish stocks including the 3Pn4RS cod stock.

The Canadian quota for 3Pn4RS cod includes fixed allocations for the FSC fisheries, the scientific fisheries and recreational fisheries. Over the past number of years, the allocation for the FSC fisheries has been 53 t. The FSC allocation could be adjusted in the coming years through the agreement negotiation process. During the same period, the allocation for the scientific fisheries has been 200 t, with a smaller quantity 80 t, allocated to the recreational fishery. In 2024, based on best available data, fixed allocations for both the scientific and recreational fisheries have been revised to 150 t. These allocations may be modified in future years if quantitative estimates warrant a revision.

When a commercial fishery is authorized, the remaining quota for the Canadian commercial fishery is allocated in accordance with the established percentage that each fleet shares, as shown in the table below (Table 1). The NL inshore fixed-gear fleet holds 72% of the inshore fixed-gear sector quota, with the remainder held by the QC inshore fixed-gear fleet. The resulting commercial fleet allocations account for both cod caught in the directed commercial fishery and cod taken as bycatch in commercial fisheries for other species. The management plan for the commercial 3Pn4RS cod fishery includes a mobile-gear re-entry strategy, established in 2005 to allow the re-entry of the mobile-gear sector in the commercial 3Pn4RS cod fishery at TAC levels above 9,000 t.

Table 1: Fleet shares.

1.6 History of the fishery

Cod has been harvested for thousands of years in North America by many Indigenous groups. The following Europeans began fishing off Newfoundland in the early 15th century (COSEWIC 2010; IFMP 2017; Mimault 1997):

In the 20th century, the modernization of fishing equipment and vessels led to a significant increase in fishing effort and catches made by a multitude of foreign fleets. In the 1970s, overfishing caused the collapse of some offshore stocks. This led to the establishment of Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in 1977.

After peaking at 106,080 t in 1983 (under a TAC of 100,000 t), landings of 3Pn4RS cod gradually declined to 18,452 t in 1993 (under a revised TAC of 18,000 t) (Figure 2), the year before the first commercial fishing moratorium was implemented (from 1994 to 1996). Most of the cod caught from the mid-1950s until the closure of the fishery in 1993 were caught using mobile gear, including bottom trawls. After the moratorium was lifted in 1997, directed cod fishing was almost exclusively carried out with fixed gear (i.e., mainly gillnets and longlines).

Between the reopening of the fishery (in 1997) and 2002, annual landings of 3Pn4RS cod remained below 7,000 t. A second moratorium on commercial fishing was imposed for a year in 2003 and the recreational fishery for this stock was closed from 2003 to 2005. The TAC for 3Pn4RS cod was set at 3,500 t for the 2004-2005 management period, and was gradually increased to 7,000 t from 2007-2008 to 2009-2010 and then reduced in subsequent years, notably to 1,500 t from 2012-2013 to 2014-2015. A rebuilding plan was established for 4RS3Pn cod in 2015, and the TACs for 2015-2016 to 2018-2019 were set in accordance with the plan’s harvest control rule (HCR), increasing from 1,500 t in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 to 3,185 t in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019. Based on scientific information indicating that stock had declined to a low level, the TAC for 3Pn4RS cod was reduced to 1,000 t for 2019-2020 and maintained at this level until 2021-2022. In July 2022, DFO announced the closure of the directed commercial fishery for 1 year (DFO 2023a). FSC, recreational and sentinel fisheries, as well as bycatches in other commercial fisheries, remained authorized. This management approach was maintained in 2023-2024.

Figure 2: Annual landings of 3Pn4RS cod and total allowable catches (TAC, black line) by management year. The complete series is presented in a) and the 1994–2022 period in b). Moratorium years are shaded pink. Figure taken from DFO (2023b).
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Figure 2

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1.7 Socio-economic profile

While cod and other groundfish were the main drivers of Atlantic Canada’s fishing industry for many years, by the late 1980s (DFO 2002a) the industry was dominated by catches of crustaceans (lobster, snow crab and shrimp).

Following the first moratorium (1994-1996), the federal government introduced a number of programs that resulted in a reduction in the number of active cod fishing enterprises, and a shift in the focus of many harvesters’ activities towards crustaceans. In parallel, a number of cod fishers redirected their efforts towards other groundfish species such as Atlantic halibut and Greenland halibut.

The decline in cod fishing activities continued through the 2000s and 2010s. In Canada as a whole, cod landings as a share of total landed value declined from 29% in 1987 to less than 1% in 2020. The value of 3Pn4RS cod landings was just over $1.1M in 2021. Of this total, approximately $670,000 came from NL harvesters and $427,000 from QC harvesters. Harvesters from other provinces accounted for only $7,000 (Figure 3).

Figure 3: 3Pn4RS cod landings in value by province of residence, 2001 to 2021.
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Figure 3

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It should be noted that over the last 15 years, the number of active fishing enterprises in the directed cod fishery has declined by 73% (from 991 in 2006 to 264 in 2021), while the number of enterprises taking cod solely as bycatch has increased by 330% (from 40 in 2006 to 172 in 2021) (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Number of harvesters that caught 3Pn4RS cod, by target species, 2001 to 2021.
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Of the $1.1 M in cod landed in 2021, approximately $883,000 came from the directed cod fishery, while $221,000 came from bycatch in other fisheries (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Value of 3Pn4RS cod landings in the directed cod fishery and bycatches, by the harvesters’ province of residence, 2001 to 2021.
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Figure 5

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After experiencing a steady upward trend since 2013, the price of cod reached a record high of $1.69/kg in 2019. This is 61% higher than in 2013 and 94% higher than in 1997. However, when inflation is taken into account, the increase is much less pronounced, 36% and 40% respectively (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Landed price of 3Pn4RS cod (round weight), 1982 to 2021 prices adjusted for inflation.
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For the 41 QC harvesters who participated in the directed cod fishery in 3Pn4RS, the fishery accounted for 6.5% of their total landings on average in 2021 (Figure 7), for an average revenue of $6,682. For the 226 NL harvesters who participated in the directed cod fishery, the fishery accounted for an average revenue of $2,740, which represents 3.1% of their total landings (Figure 8).

Nevertheless, from 2017 to 2021, between 34 and 109 harvesters from NL and QC (depending on the year) were dependent on directed fishing for 3Pn4RS cod for more than 30% of their income (Figures 9 and 10). This corresponds to 12% to 22% of active harvesters.

Figure 7: Value of landings made by QC harvesters participating in the directed cod fishery in 3Pn4RS and relative percentage of the value of all their landings, 2017 to 2021.
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Figure 8: Value of landings made by NL harvesters participating in the directed cod fishery in 3Pn4RS and relative percentage of the value of all their landings, 2017 to 2021.
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Figure 9: Number of harvesters who participated in the 3Pn4RS directed cod fishery, based on income earned from this fishery as a proportion of their total fishing activities, 2017 to 2021.
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Figure 10: Value of average landings from the directed 3Pn4RS cod fishery, according to the proportion that this fishery represents of the total fishing activities of the participating harvesters, 2017 to 2021.
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Recreational fishery

Recreational landings of 3Pn4RS cod are not recorded. Over the years, a number of methods have been used to estimate the quantity of cod caught in the recreational fishery. However, these estimation methods provide extremely varied results. For example, estimated 3Pn4RS cod catches over the period 2011-2020 range from 150 t to 900 t, depending on the method used.

1.8 Stakeholder participation in development of the rebuilding plan

A working group was established to bring together representatives from DFO, Indigenous groups, provincial governments, and fishing industry stakeholders to seek their views on the elements to be included in the rebuilding plan for 3Pn4RS cod. The members of the Gulf Groundfish Advisory Committee (GGAC) were invited to participate in this process. The proposed rebuilding plan elements developed though the working group process were submitted to the GGAC for information and then to the Minister of DFO for decision.

The GGAC is DFO's primary consultation forum for discussing issues related to the management of groundfish, including 3Pn4RS cod, with stakeholders. The committee meets every 2 years to discuss groundfish management issues and measures, and holds other meetings as necessary. The Minister of DFO’s decision regarding management measures for 3Pn4RS cod is informed by the most recent scientific information, the perspectives of the GGAC, and socio-economic considerations.

2 Stock status and stock trends

COSEWIC status

In 2010, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assessed the Laurentian North Designatable Unit of Atlantic cod, which includes cod in NAFO Divisions 3Pn4RS, as Endangered, based primarily on the magnitude of the decline (78% to 89% decrease) in adult abundance over three generations (i.e., 30 years) (COSEWIC 2010). To date, the 3Pn4RS cod stock has not been added to Schedule 1 of the Species at Risk Act and the stock continues to be managed under the Fisheries Act.

2.1 Precautionary approach

In 2009, DFO introduced A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach (PA Policy), which applies to key harvested stocks managed by DFO. This includes stocks that are the specific and intended targets of a commercial, recreational or subsistence fishery. In accordance with the PA Policy, all removal from these stocks by all types of fishing must be taken into account. For each stock, a PA Framework is established and includes:

In the case of 3Pn4RS cod, a limit reference point (LRP) was first established in 2002 (DFO 2002b), and it was recognized that the spawning stock biomass (SSB) had been in the critical zone since the 1990s (DFO 2003). The LRP was last updated in 2023 using a new assessment model approved in 2022 (Table 2, DFO 2023b). DFO Science has proposed an upper stock reference point (USR), a target reference point (TRP), and a removal reference (RR) point for 3Pn4RS cod, but these values have not yet been adopted for the stock. They will be considered when the stock reaches its rebuilding target and the rebuilding plan transitions to an IFMP (see "measurable objectives aimed at rebuilding the stock" section).

Table 2: Summary of reference points in the PA Framework for 3Pn4RS cod based on long-term trends in spawning stock biomass (SSB).

The review of the cod stock assessment framework conducted in 2021 and 2022 (DFO 2022b, DFO 2023c) provided abundance indices for the pre-collapse period (1990s) and improved current productivity and stock size estimates.

Estimates of the SSB decreased drastically around 1993 (Figure 11). The SSB estimate for 2022 was in the critical zone and corresponded to 60% of the LRP (DFO 2023b).

Figure 11: Estimated spawning stock biomass (SSB; black line) with 95% confidence intervals (grey polygon) and the limit reference point (horizontal red line).
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Figure 11

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Figure 11 presents estimates from 1973 to 2022 for spawning stock biomass (SSB) and the stock-specific value of the limit reference point (LRP), which is fixed at 71,970 t and is represented by the horizontal red line. The grey area around the SSB black line shows the 95 per cent confidence interval. The LRP represent the boundary between the Critical zone of DFO’s precautionary approach framework, under the red line and the Cautious zone and eventually at higher SSB values, the Healthy zone of DFO’s precautionary approach framework, above the red line, although the level of SSB that delineates these latter two zones has yet to be formally established.

Spawning stock biomass increased between 1976 and the early 1980s. However, beginning in the mid-1980s, spawning stock biomass declined sharply until the mid-1990s, dropping from around 225,000 t to around 25,000 t and crossing the limit reference point of 71.970 t around 1990. Since then, spawning stock biomass has therefore been in the critical zone, below the limit reference point. Subsequently, spawning stock biomass increased to around 50,000 t by the 2000s and has fluctuated around that level ever since.

Fishing mortality (F), which is estimated based on reported and inferred catches, was low in 2021 and even lower in 2022, when this metric reached the lowest level since the 2003 moratorium. According to model-derived estimates, the contribution of fishing mortality to total mortality (Z) has decreased over the decades (Figure 12). However, natural mortality (M) has been at high levels for at least a decade. The variation in estimates of natural mortality suggests that unaccounted fishing mortality is contributing to the natural mortality index (DFO 2023b).

Based on 3-year projections and a 0-tonne harvest scenario (recorded captures only), there is only a modest prospect for growth over the next 3 years, despite the increased contribution to the SSB from the 2018 cohort (DFO 2023b). The cod stock is at a low abundance level (60% of LRP) and, although fishing has declined and the fishery was closed in 2022, there is no sign of population rebuilding. The high rate of natural mortality explains this modest outlook.

Figure 12: Trends in natural (M), fishing (F) and total (Z) mortality rates, by age (individual panels), estimated by the assessment model. For ages 2 and 3, M values are considered fixed in the model and estimated F rates are very small; therefore, trends for these ages are not shown in the graph. The panel for age 11 represents fish age 11 and older.
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Figure 12

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Figure 12 is divided into 8 panels, one for each age group between 4 and 11 years inclusive, where the bottom right panel is for ages 11 and above. In each of these panels, the trend in natural mortality (black curve), fishing mortality (blue curve) and total mortality (red curve) are represented over a period of time from 1973 to 2022. The Y-axis, representing mortality, is graduated from 0.0 to 2.0.

For the 4-year-old panel, the fishing mortality curve is almost horizontal near 0.0. The natural and total mortality curves are almost on top of each other. From the beginning of the graph to around 1984, these mortalities are stable at 0.5, decreasing slightly around 1985 to around 0.4, then rising almost constantly to 1.5 around 1993. From 1993 to 2022, natural and total mortality vary together, reaching lows of 0.7 around 1997, 2006 and 2015, alternating with highs of 1.5 in 2001, 1.25 in 2010 and 1.8 in 2017.

For the 5-year-old panel, the fishing mortality curve is almost horizontal at 0.25 between the early 1970s and 1985. From 1985 onwards, the fishing mortality curve rises to 0.5 in 1994, then falls back to near 0 in 1995 and remains there until 2022. The natural mortality curve follows the same pattern as the fishing curve until 1994, but remains high at between 0.25 and 0.5 until 2022. The total mortality curve is higher than the other two up to 1994, since it represents the sum of the other two, then follows the natural mortality curve from 1995 to 2022.

For the panel representing age 6, from the early 70s until 1986, the three curves are almost horizontal, with natural mortality at 0.1, fishing mortality at 0.4, and total mortality at 0.5. From 1987 to 1994, natural and fishing mortality rise to near 0.75 and total mortality to about 1.25. From 1994 to 1995, the fishing mortality curve drops to near 0, and those of natural and total mortality to around 0.5. After this decline, up until 2022, fishing mortality remains close to 0 with a slight peak around the year 2000 where fishing mortality increases to 0.12, and natural and total mortality follow each other and vary around 0.5.

The panels for age groups 7, 8, and 9 present a pattern very similar to that of age 6, with a few variations and amplifications. For the age 7 panel, the peak of fishing and total mortality in 1994 increases to 1.0 and 1.5 respectively. From 1995, fishing mortality approaches 0 until 2022, with a slight increase to 0.25 around the year 2000 while natural and total mortality follow each other and vary around 0.5.

For the age 8 panel, the peak of fishing and total mortality in 1994 increases to 1.0 and 1.5 respectively. From 1995, fishing mortality approaches 0 until 2022, with slight increases to 0.25 around the years 2000 and 2007 while natural and total mortality follow each other and vary around 0.5, but with total mortality slightly higher than natural mortality around 2000 and 2007.

For the age 9 panel, the peak of fishing and total mortality in 1994 exceeds 1.0 and 1.5 respectively. From 1995, fishing mortality approaches 0 until 2022, with an increase near 0.5 around the year 2000 and another increase to 0.25 around 2007. Natural and total mortality follow each other and vary around 0.75, but with total mortality higher than natural mortality around 2000 and 2007.

The panels for ages 10 and 11 are very similar. The three curves are almost horizontal from the start of the graph until 1986. Natural mortality is near 0.25, fishing mortality is near 0.5, and total mortality is near 0.75. Then, the three curves increase to reach a peak at 1.0 in 1995 for natural mortality, a peak at 1.12 in 1994 for fishing mortality, and a peak at nearly 2.0 in 1994 for total mortality. From 1995, fishing mortality drops to near 0, rises again to 0.5 around the year 2000, drops back to near 0 around 2004, then rises again to 0.25 around 2008 and stabilizes near 0 until 2022. Natural and total mortality follow each other and drop to 0.5 around 2004. Then, both increase to near 1.75 in 2008, drop to 0.75 in 2015, increase to 1.25 in 2017, decrease to 0.5 in 2020, and rise again to 0.85 in 2022.

3 Probable causes of the stock’s decline

Like a number of other stocks, the 3Pn4RS cod population collapsed as a result of intensive fishing which began in the late 1950s and 1960s, and rose sharply beginning in the mid-1980s. Total mortality peaked in the early 1990s, primarily because of the record high level of fishing mortality, and was estimated at >1.5 when the stock collapsed. The collapse of the stock is largely attributable to this increase in mortality. Following the implementation of the moratorium, the total mortality rate declined to around 0.7 in 1994-1996, which represents estimated natural mortality at that time (Brassard et al. 2020). As was the case for the nearby NAFO 4TVn cod stock (Swain et al. 2019), natural mortality appears to have increased beginning in the mid-1980s, reaching a (first) peak in the mid-1990s. This increase in natural mortality coincided with a period of abnormally cold temperatures in the waters occupied by cod (Gilbert and Pettitgrew 1997; Galbraith et al. 2022) and is attributed, in the case of the 3Pn4RS stock, to a decrease in cod physiological condition (Lambert and Dutil 1997; Dutil and Lambert 2000). In subsequent years, total mortality increased, reaching approximately 0.85 in 2000, and then declined to between 0.2 and 0.4 in 2003, during the second moratorium. In 2004, after the moratorium was lifted, natural mortality increased as fishing activity increased, rising from 0.4 to 0.5 in 2004-2008, to 0.5 in 2009-2013, and to 0.7 in 2014-2018 (Brassard et al. 2020).

The physical condition of the fish is generally considered to be the main factor that has affected the level of natural mortality of 3Pn4RS cod and other Canadian cod stocks for several decades (Regular et al. 2022; Varkey et al. 2022; Lambert and Dutil 1997; Dutil and Lambert 2000). However, since the 1990s, the condition of 3Pn4RS cod has generally been at average levels, which are not associated with increased mortality (Dutil and Lambert 2000), and there is no evidence of a significant impact on natural mortality. Nevertheless, the poor condition of cod observed in 2022 has raised several questions about the likely causes and, above all, the consequences for the stock (DFO 2023b).

Despite ongoing restrictions and management measures that are based on the PA, the 3Pn4RS cod stock has shown little or no sign of rebuilding. A surplus production analysis carried out during the 2023 assessment (DFO 2023b) showed that, in the absence of fishing, surplus production would have been generated in most years since 2000 and the abundance of the stock would have increased. The surplus production analysis confirmed the conclusions of a previous study, which reported that fishing, even if reduced, was an important factor in the failure of this and other Canadian cod stocks to rebuild (Shelton et al. 2006).

Recruitment to this stock has fluctuated around a low level over the past 3 decades, mainly due to the low spawning biomass. This low recruitment, combined with increased mortality, has limited population growth (DFO 2011; DFO 2023b).

This cod population could, in future, experience an Allee effect (described below), as observed for the neighboring southern Gulf of St. Lawrence stock (4TVn) (DFO 2019a); however, there is no evidence of such an effect at present (Ouellette-Plante et al. in press). An Allee effect occurs when the population growth rate per individual decreases as the size of the population decreases. This is the opposite of what is expected, which is that the productivity of a low-abundance population should increase as a result of reduced intraspecific competition. For the 4TVn stock, the Allee effect was associated with an increase in natural mortality with decreasing stock abundance, and appears to be attributable to grey seal predation (Swain et al. 2019). A shift in the grey seal range towards the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence, combined with low 3Pn4RS cod abundance, could generate an Allee effect (Benoît and Ouellette-Plante 2023).

The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) ecosystem has undergone significant changes in recent decades. Both the surface layer and deep waters are warming and becoming depleted of oxygen, particularly at the heads of channels (DFO 2019b). Laboratory studies on cod have shown that a saturation of 28 to 30% is the lethal threshold for hypoxia (DFO 2011; Plante et al. 1998). The observed changes occur mainly in the deep waters of the GSL, which cod do not occupy most of the year. Although cod are found there in winter, they are relatively inactive and feed little, hence the consequences of warming and hypoxia could be less significant for them. For other species, particularly those that are present there year-round and for which major bioenergetic impacts can be anticipated (Lavaud et al. 2019).

In the northern Gulf, there has been a significant decline in zooplankton biomass since 2010, with a more pronounced decline observed since 2015 (DFO 2019b). These changes could affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels (DFO 2019b). Recruitment could be affected; however, there is no indication of such an effect for this stock, especially since, at age 2, the cohort born in 2018 was, the largest cohort in 3 decades.

Although predation by grey seals is not considered significant in the nGSL at present, an increase in this predator's population or a decrease in food availability could have a negative effect on the northern Gulf cod stock (DFO 2019b) in the future. As mentioned previously, a potential range shift in the nGSL due to reduced winter ice extent could increase the presence of grey seals in the 3Pn4RS ecosystem. On the other hand, harp seals, which prey mainly on young cod but are a less significant predator, are expected to be less present in the nGSL with the decrease in winter ice cover, because they whelp on the ice (Bousquet et al. 2014; Buren et al. 2014).

Based on current understanding of the best available evidence, it is unlikely that habitat loss or degradation has contributed to the stock’s decline.

4 Measurable objectives aimed at rebuilding the stock

As outlined in the PA Policy, the primary objective of a rebuilding plan is to promote stock growth out of the Critical zone (i.e., grow the stock above the LRP with a high to very high likelihood).

The rebuilding target, the rebuilding plan short-term objectives and the associated timelines are outlined below. When the rebuilding target is reached, the rebuilding plan will end and the 3Pn4RS cod fisheries will be subject to an IFMP, which will contain objectives to promote sustainable management and further growth of the stock.

4.1 Rebuilding target and timeline

In keeping with the Guidelines for writing rebuilding plans per the Fish Stocks Provisions and a Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach, the rebuilding target is set at a biomass level above the LRP such that there is a very low to low likelihood that the stock will be below its LRP (<5% to 25% probability). The target for 3Pn4RS has been set at a spawning stock biomass (SSB) level of 81,961 t, representing a 75% probability of being above the LRP (Benoît and Ouellette-Plante 2023). The rebuilding target is reached when there is at least a 50% probability that the SSB will be equal to or greater than the LRP.

To establish the rebuilding plan timeline and develop management measures aimed at achieving the rebuilding target, long-term SSB growth projections were conducted for 3Pn4RS cod to assess the time it would take the stock to reach the rebuilding target in the absence of fishing, under current productivity conditions (Tmin).

The assessment of 3Pn4RS cod revealed an incomplete stock-recruitment relationship characterized by low recruitment at low stock levels (SSB generally < 55,000 t) and increased recruitment at higher stock levels (SSB > 125,000 t), with only a few estimates of recruitment at intermediate stock sizes. Adding to the uncertainty, several factors are not fully addressed in this relationship, including the physiological condition of adult cod, their ages, older adults will produce more eggs and better quality eggs, often larger than in younger cod depending on their body mass. Predators of cod eggs and larvae and the physical conditions of the environment (e.g., temperature) could also affect recruitment. Overall, however, stock and recruitment dynamics are such that recruitment appears to be characterized by fluctuations around mean levels for each of the following 2 periods:

For the Tmin projections for this rebuilding plan, 2 recruitment scenarios were simulated:

Considering that recruitment has been fluctuating for 30+ years around the average for the period 1991-2022 as presented in the first scenario, it is reasonable to assume that this period corresponds to current productivity conditions. It was therefore used to establish the Tmin. However, this scenario does not take into account the potential increase in recruitment as the SSB of the stock increases.

Two natural mortality (M) scenarios were also considered in the projections. The first corresponds to the M value for 2003, a time when all directed fishing (commercial and recreational) was under moratorium. The second scenario corresponds to the average M value from 2019 to 2021, which is a recent period, but could include an unknown fraction of fishing mortality resulting from unaccounted fishing (recreational fishing, discards, unreported commercial fishing and depredation Footnote 1).

The average M scenario for 2019-2021 could provide pessimistic projections, as it includes unaccounted fishing mortality. On the contrary, the 2003 M scenario could be optimistic, because it assumes that current mortality which is attributable solely to natural factors has remained unchanged since then. The natural mortality rate corresponding to that of 2003 was selected to establish the Tmin, and the simulation results indicate that recovery is possible in 8 years under (Tmin) regardless of the recruitment scenario. The simulation results under the 2019-2021 M scenario showed no possible rebuilding.

Based on the guidelines for writing rebuilding plans per the Fish Stocks Provisions and a Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach, the timeline to reach the rebuilding target must be between Tmin and a maximum of 2 to 3 times Tmin. Even though long term population projections based on the management measures in place (see “Management measures aimed at achieving the objectives” section) indicate that the stock will reach the target in 10 years, a longer timeline of 16 years was selected, with 2024 (the effective date of the rebuilding plan) considered year 1. This timeline, which corresponds to 2 times Tmin, takes into account the uncertainty associated with long-term SSB projections and the unpredictability of future ecosystem conditions and 3Pn4RS cod stock productivity. The anticipated increase in seal predation is also taken into account.

4.2 Additional measurable objectives and timelines

To promote the growth of the 3Pn4RS cod stock to its rebuilding target, secondary objectives have been established for this stock (Table 3). An interim measurable objective has been established and reflects the nearest-term growth objective to grow the stock to 80% of the LRP, which means the SSB would reach 57,576 t, with a probability of 75%. Although projections based on the proposed management measures indicate that this objective could be achieved in 6 years, an 8-year timeline has been selected, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the above-mentioned SSB projections and the unpredictability associated with future ecosystem conditions for the 3Pn4RS cod stock.

The rebuilding plan also includes 2 non-measurable objectives aimed at promoting growth of the stock to the rebuilding target:

  1. Continue to keep the 3Pn4RS cod bycatch rates in other fisheries at the lowest possible level. In 2021, 87.1 t of the 3Pn4RS cod bycatch came from the Atlantic halibut fishery out of a total of 96.4 t. Further analysis of the cod bycatch in the Atlantic halibut fishery will make it possible to determine whether additional management measures could help reduce the cod bycatch level and contribute to the growth of the 3Pn4RS cod stock. With the re-opening of the Unit 1 Redfish fishery in 2024, a significant increase in cod bycatch from this fishery is anticipated in 3Pn4RS. The situation will be followed as part of regular monitoring and along other analysis within the objective of this rebuilding plan.
  2. Develop reliable estimates of 3Pn4RS cod removals in the recreational fishery. Given the absence of recorded landings, there is little information on catches in the recreational groundfish fishery, including cod. Hence, it is not possible to have an in-depth understanding of the impact of recreational fishing on the 3Pn4RS cod stock. Better estimates would provide a better understanding of stock dynamics and help to ensure more sustainable management of the stock.

Table 3: Objectives and timelines.

5 Management measures aimed at achieving the objectives

5.1 Main management measures

A harvest control rule (HCR) has been implemented as part of this rebuilding plan to support the growth of the 3Pn4RS cod stock towards the rebuilding target. The HCR recommends the total level of 3Pn4RS cod removals from all fishery-related sources, based on the SSB level (Table 4). Under this HCR, prescribed total removals are set to a fixed level of 500 t when the SSB is below 80% of the LRP. Removals would then be increased progressively as the stock approaches the cautious zone.

The fishery-related sources considered in the HCR’s prescribed total removals include the following activities:

Table 4: SSB range for 3Pn4RS cod stock and total removals prescribed by the HCR. The rebuilding target corresponds to 113% of the LRP.

Long-term projections of stock growth were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the HCR in rebuilding the stock. Two recruitment scenarios and two natural mortality (M) scenarios were evaluated (see "rebuilding target and timeline" section). The scenarios best aligned with current productivity conditions were selected, i.e., the 2003 M scenario and the steady recruitment scenario. The projections show that the HCR would allow stock growth to reach the rebuilding target in 10 years and the interim objective in 6 years (see Figure 13). The projection results represent a 50% probability of reaching the target. The projections show that the SSB could reach an equilibrium at 90,591 t, which is higher than the rebuilding target. Cumulative total removals over the 10-years period are estimated at 11,000 t.

However, natural mortality may have increased since 2003 due to biological and ecological factors, hence the projection results may be overly optimistic in this regard. During the implementation of the rebuilding plan, the effectiveness of the HCR will be monitored on an ongoing basis, and adjustments will be made as necessary (see "periodic review of the rebuilding plan" section).

It should also be noted that the simulated removals represent the total removals from all sources (landings from directed and non-directed commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries, FSC fisheries and scientific fisheries) as well as an unknown fraction of mortality associated with discards, gear depredation and unreported catches.

Figure 13: Results of simulations based on average recruitment over 32 years and 2003 M. Black line shows the projected median SSB, along with the rebuilding target (horizontal blue line) based on a 75% probability of being above the LRP, and the number of years until the interim objective (vertical dashed green line) and the rebuilding target (vertical dashed blue line) will be achieved.
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Figure 13

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Figure 13 is composed of the spawning stock biomass on the y-axis, ranging from 0 to 120 in 1000 tons, and the years from 0 to 100 on the x-axis. A horizontal blue line is placed on the graph slightly above 80 (1000 t) SSB. This line represents the rebuilding target based on a 75% probability of being above the LRP, and the number of years until the interim objective (represented by a vertical dashed green line at year 6) and the rebuilding target (represented by a vertical dashed blue line at year 10) will be achieved. The vertical dashed blue line at year 10, as the rebuilding target, intersects the horizontal blue line at the coordinates (10, just above 80). The projected median spawning stock biomass is represented by a black line that starts at 40 at year 0, intersects the horizontal blue line slightly above 80 at year 10, and then reaches an equilibrium of 90,591 t until the end of the projected years.

The management measures that will be put in place to achieve the objectives outlined in the previous section are presented in Table 5.

Table 5: Summary of objectives associated with their main management measures and expected results for achieving the rebuilding plan objectives.

5.2 Additional management measures

The groundfish fishery in Canada is governed by the Fisheries Act and regulations, as well as by DFO policies. A number of management measures that are already in place ensure the long-term protection and sustainability of marine resources and therefore support the objectives of this rebuilding plan.

These measures and programs are presented below.

5.2.1 Season dates and fishing area

Fishing seasons and areas are detailed in the license conditions, CHPs, Notice to Fish Harvesters and Variation Orders. The management cycle for groundfish stocks in the Gulf of St. Lawrence extends from May 15 to May 14 of the following year. Opening dates may vary according to particular circumstances and fishery management considerations, including industry requests and TAC announcements. Closing dates may be advanced, notably when quotas have been reached or are likely to be exceeded.

Fishing for cod or other groundfish species is prohibited in certain areas to protect fish during the spawning season, as well as in areas where cod concentrates, in order to promote the rebuilding of cod stocks in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. These areas include:

In addition to the above closures, the directed cod fishery in NAFO Sub-division 3Ps units (d) and (e) is closed to all fleets from November 15 to mid-May of each year to protect 3Pn4RS cod that are mixing with 3Ps cod.

5.2.2 Coral and sponge conservation measures in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence

Since December 15, 2017, management measures have been in place in 11 coral and sponge conservation areas in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence. The overall objective is to conserve biodiversity through the protection of key species and habitats, as well as the structure and function of ecosystems. All fishing activities that use bottom-contact fishing gear or gear designed to come in contact with the seabed are prohibited in these conservation areas, including:

For more information, please visit the coral and sponge conservation zoneswebsite. The coordinates of all zones are detailed in the licence conditions and in the QC region variation order 2017-Q-104.

5.2.3 Management measures related to fishing gear restrictions

The use of mobile gear to fish for 3Pn4RS cod has been prohibited since 1994. When directed commercial fishing for 3Pn4RS cod is authorized, fixed-gear (gillnets, longlines, handlines, and cod pots) may be used, with additional restrictions on the number of nets and mesh size and the number of hooks, and pots authorized. The authorized gear type and quantity are outlined in CHPs and fleet-specific licence conditions.

The recreational groundfish fishery is restricted to the use of handlines and angling gear, and the FSC fishery for 3Pn4RS cod is carried out with gillnets.

5.2.4 Fishery monitoring policy

DFO has developed a Sustainable Fisheries Framework which includes several policies for the conservation and sustainable use of resources. The Fishery Monitoring Policy is part of this framework and has 3 objectives:

The implementation of this policy is a priority for DFO, and 3Pn4RS cod is a stock that is prioritized.

DFO's commitments and results in relation to the implementation of this policy for 3Pn4RS cod stock are presented in the Sustainable Fisheries Framework Work Plan.

5.2.5 Monitoring programs

The Conservation and Protection (C and P) program promotes and ensures compliance with laws, regulations and management measures implemented to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of Canada’s aquatic resources and the protection of species at risk, fish habitat and oceans. In addition to conducting patrols, C and P implements 3 major catch monitoring programs to monitor and control catches as well as enforce fishery-specific laws and regulations and management measures. The 3 programs are as follows:

5.2.5.1 At-Sea Observer Program

The At-Sea Observer Program provides for verification of fishing activities by an independent third party. The program collects timely catch information and scientific data. The targeted at-sea observer coverage (percentage) of fishing activities is specified in the CHP for each fishery. In general, for groundfish fishing (cod bycatch monitoring), the targeted coverage is between 5% and 25% of activities with 5% coverage for directed cod fishing. The achieved coverage levels for 3Pn4RS cod are currently lower than the target levels due to the challenges caused by the shortages of at-sea observers, an issue that is national in scope. As part of rebuilding efforts, C and P works with at-sea observer companies to coordinate deployments in an effort to increase coverage levels within the 3Pn4RS cod fishery where required.

5.2.5.2 Dockside Monitoring Program

The Dockside Monitoring Program (DMP) ensures accurate, timely third-party verification of fish landings. It is the main source and, in some regions, the only source of information on landings that Fisheries and Oceans Canada uses for fisheries management. The fishing industry and the department are therefore dependent on the accurate verification of landings by dockside monitoring companies. The program is also a valuable management tool used by DFO to monitor the fisheries concerned. DMP is mandatory for 100% of groundfish landings.

5.2.5.3 Vessel Monitoring System

The Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) periodically transmits information on the position of a particular vessel to Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The VMS improves the DFO's ability to monitor vessel positions and compliance of fishing activities with current fisheries regulations (such as closed areas). The requirement to have a VMS varies depending on the fleet, the target species and the gear used and is specified in the CHP and/or licence conditions for each fishery.

5.2.6 Management of bycatch

5.2.6.1 Bycatch limits

Bycatch management is carried out in accordance with policy on managing bycatch. Cod bycatch limits are imposed on fisheries directed at other groundfish species. These limits vary depending on the target species, the fleet, the gear used and the region. They may consist of a weight limit or a number per day, per week or per trip, depending on the fleet and the directed fishery concerned. If the limits are exceeded, a temporary closure of a fishery or a fishing area may be implemented. Bycatch limits are specified in the CHPs and/or the licence conditions for each fishery.

5.2.6.2 Small Fish Protocol

Protocols are in place in order to minimize the impact of capturing of small fish. Areas may be temporarily closed to fishing if the number of under-sized fish caught exceeds 15% of the total quantity of the target species. Cod are considered small if they are less than 43 cm long.

5.2.7 Quota reconciliation

In the 3Pn4RS cod fisheries, quota reconciliation is applied on an annual basis. Quota reconciliation provides that any quota overrun harvest in a given year, whether under an individual Quota, an enterprise allocation or a competitive fishery, will be deducted on a one-for-one basis from the quota established for the following fishing season. This measure is designed to ensure that removals respect established quotas over time.

6 Current and future projects that will help reduce uncertainty

Current projects being carried out by DFO Science could help to reduce uncertainties related to the 3Pn4RS cod stock.

Several research projects were undertaken in the early 1990s to address concerns about overwintering of 3Pn4RS and 3Ps cod stocks. A major tagging program was launched in the fall of 1995 in the nGSL and is still being carried out today. In the near future, this program may seek to provide updated information on the extent of mixing between the 2 cod stocks. A winter bottom trawl survey conducted from 2022 to 2024 will also help address this question, as well as provide information on the current winter distribution of 3Pn4RS cod in the absence of a commercial fishery.

New tagging approaches were introduced a few years ago for the 3Pn4RS cod stock. The tags used, unlike traditional spaghetti-type tags, are equipped with acoustic transmitters that transmit their unique identifiers to acoustic receivers as the fish swim by them. Since tagged cod are rarely caught during a moratorium, the data collected with acoustic transmitters can be used to track the movements of individual fish. These data will be particularly useful for documenting the movements of cod in the Blanc-Sablon sector as they leave the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence via the Strait of Belle Isle.

A study on the distribution of grey seal throughout the Northwest Atlantic will be completed in 2024. The result will provide a better understanding of grey seal predation on 3Pn4RS cod, in both the past and the present.

In addition, environmental changes observed in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence need to be considered to a greater extent in the analytical assessment of the stock.

7 Socio-economic analysis

This section provides an analysis of the socio-economic impacts that could be generated by the implementation of the 3Pn4RS cod recovery plan, namely:

These scenarios are presented for illustrative purposes only, and could be considered if a decline in biomass were to be observed. To assess the potential impact of additional measures, a calculation was made on the basis of 1 tonne caught per type of harvesting activity. This estimate, based on working hypotheses, makes it possible to quantify the impact of potential reductions.

7.1 Bycatches

Figure 14 illustrates the average annual quantities of cod caught as bycatch in different directed fisheries between 2017 and 2021. The directed Atlantic halibut fishery generates the most bycatch of 3Pn4RS cod (93.3 t), followed by:

With the re-opening of the Unit 1 Redfish fishery in 2024, a significant increase in cod bycatch from this fishery is anticipated in 3Pn4RS. It is difficult to estimate the amount of bycatch of cod that could be caught in the Unit 1 Redfish fishery at this time, since there has been no commercial fishery since 1995. However, it is likely that without restriction, bycatch of 3Pn4RS cod from all commercial groundfish fisheries, including Unit 1 Redfish, would exceed 150 t.

Figure 14: Average annual bycatch of 3Pn4RS cod and average annual landings in the directed fishery, by species, 2017-2021.
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Figure 14

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Assuming that 3Pn4RS cod bycatch rates in these fisheries remain unchanged, the quantities of Atlantic halibut caught in the directed fishery would need to be reduced by 8.2 kg to allow a 1 kg reduction in cod bycatch. For the other directed fisheries, which have lower cod bycatch rates, a much greater reduction of the quantities caught would be needed to achieve a 1 kg decrease in the 3Pn4RS cod bycatch:

Figure 15: Average ratio of landings in the directed fishery/3Pn4RS cod bycatch in quantity and value, by species, 2017-2021.
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Figure 15

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A 1-tonne reduction in cod bycatch would have a greater impact on directed fisheries with a small amount of cod bycatch, since the reduction in the quantity of landings of the target species would be greater than for fisheries with a large amount of bycatch. For a 1-tonne reduction in cod bycatch, the decrease in revenues for commercial harvesters and processing plants would be $96,193 Footnote 2 in the directed Atlantic halibut fishery and $376,186 for Greenland halibut (Figure 16).

Figure 16: Impact of a 1-tonne reduction in cod bycatch in the commercial and recreational fisheries (food value), by target species, on harvesters' income and the added value for processing plants, 2017-2021.
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Figure 16

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Since the total revenues from 3Pn4RS cod caught as bycatch are significantly higher in the directed Atlantic halibut fishery, the potential impact would be greater for this fishery. On average, 93.3 t of 3Pn4RS cod were caught incidentally in the directed Atlantic halibut fishery between 2017 and 2021. If all of this bycatch were to be removed, the total impact on Atlantic halibut harvesters and processors would be $8.97 million (93.3 t * $96,193). Similarly, if the 15.6 tonnes of 3Pn4RS cod caught incidentally in the Greenland halibut fishery (2017-2021 average) were no longer authorized, the impact on Greenland halibut harvesters and processors would be $5.87 million (15.6 t * $376,186).

7.2 Recreational fishing

For recreational anglers, the 3Pn4RS cod fishery has social and recreational value, and, the cod that are caught have a substitute food value. The market price of whole cod can serve as a suitable proxy for the food value of cod caught by recreational anglers. Between 2017-2021, the market price was $1.95/kg. A 1-tonne reduction of cod catches in the recreational fishery would amount to a $1,950 decrease in food value for recreational anglers.

According to the best estimates, the quantities of 3Pn4RS cod caught by recreational harvesters ranged from 42.4 t to 908.7 t in 2020. Therefore, the total food value associated with recreational fishing would be between $82,860 and $1.8 million. Note, however, that these amounts do not necessarily include the full social and recreational value associated with this activity.

7.3 Directed cod fishery in 3Pn4RS

The 3Pn4RS directed cod fishery has been closed since July 2022. However, in 2021, the last year in which this directed fishery was authorized, the participating harvesters landed 574.2 t of cod, 11.5 t of halibut and 6.2 t of other species. The total value of their landings was $1.0 million, including $883,236 for 3Pn4RS cod (Figure 17). It can therefore be assumed that this impact will persist if the directed fishery remains closed as part of the implementation of the rebuilding plan.

Figure 17: Value of landings for harvesters participating in the 3Pn4RS directed cod fishery, by species caught and landed value of cod (%) relative to that of other species landed in this fishery, 2017 to 2021.
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Figure 17

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Furthermore, based on the data for the 2017-2021 period, it is estimated that a 1-tonne reduction in 3Pn4RS cod in the directed fishery would reduce revenues for harvesters and processors by $3,147.

7.4 Socio-economic benefits

The socio-economic benefits of rebuilding the 3Pn4RS cod stock cannot be quantified economically due to a lack of data. On the other hand, the rebuilding of this stock has long-term benefits that can be evaluated. Canadians value the conservation and protection of the species,recognizing its value for future generations. With restrictive measures, the spawning stock biomass could reach a higher equilibrium level, which could allow harvesters to have access to higher quotas in the long term. The rebuilding of the 3Pn4RS cod stock could also contribute to Canada's good reputation in terms of fisheries management and could facilitate access to markets.

8 Method to track progress towards achieving the objectives

Performance metrics provide DFO with a means of assessing the progress of the rebuilding plan towards the plan’s objectives. Table 6 below outlines how and when progress towards each objective will be measured.

The main stock status metric for 3Pn4RS cod is the SSB estimated from the full analytical stock assessment performed during the comprehensive stock assessment. The next comprehensive assessment is scheduled for winter 2025. In interim years (the years between comprehensive assessments) an approximation of the SSB obtained from the assessment model will be used. During the February 2023 assessment, it was shown that the biomass of cod measuring ≥ 43 cm, estimated using annual multi-species survey data and smoothed using a Loess smoother, provided a reasonable approximation of the SSB as estimated in the analytical assessment. This indicator will enable annual monitoring of stock status and recovery. These two indicators will be part of the elements considered in relation to the application of the HCR according to the 2-year management cycle for the stock.If, due to exceptional circumstances, these indicators are not available, other indicators or a combination of indicators and information deemed relevant by experts could be used to monitor stock status and apply the HCR.

Bycatch monitoring is carried out by tracking landings from each directed and non-directed 3Pn4RS cod fishery using a number of monitoring tools, and the results are recorded in the quota monitoring system. An analysis of bycatch-specific scientific information will be carried out and peer-reviewed during the regular comprehensive stock assessment process.

As part of the implementation of the Fishery Monitoring Policy (see "additional management measures" section) for the 3Pn4RS cod stock, the department will establish methods for estimating recreational cod catches.

Table 6: Summary of the performance metrics and frequency of measurement associated with each rebuilding plan objective.

9 Periodic review of the rebuilding plan

The rebuilding plan will be reviewed every 5 years to assess progress towards achieving its objectives, and to determine whether any adjustments are necessary. A 5-year period was deemed appropriate to evaluate the stock’s performance and the effectiveness of the management measures stemming from the rebuilding plan. Since a comprehensive stock assessments will be carried out every 4 years, a review of the rebuilding plan every 5 years will ensure that the most up-to-date data are available to facilitate a full review. At the end of the review process, a report will be published on the DFO’s website.

The first comprehensive review of the plan is scheduled for 2029. It is anticipated that this review will be used to inform the management decision for the 2030-2031 fishing season. An analysis of additional data that become available over the next few years (including estimates of natural mortality) could improve knowledge of the stock's current productivity and could help determine whether the scientific assumptions used to assess timelines and develop the HCR strategy remain appropriate. The participation of stakeholders and Indigenous groups in the review as part of a working group will be evaluated based on review needs. It is anticipated that the GGAC will be consulted to seek its comments and perspectives during the review of the rebuilding plan.

The rebuilding plan will be reviewed before the 5-year interval if scientific information is obtained that significantly changes understanding of the stock and/or a indicates a sustained decline in the stock. In addition, a review will be conducted as required in the event of exceptional circumstances (e.g. the loss of essential data used to measure the plan’s performance).

Stock rebuilding is not always a slow and steady, or even predictable process. Stocks may fluctuate and/or persist at low levels for years until conditions promote surplus production, resulting in rapid growth of the population. Therefore, lack of progress towards rebuilding may not be an indication that the rebuilding plan’s objectives or management measures are insufficient or ineffective.

10 References

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Bérubé, M., and Fréchet, A. 2001. “Summary of the northern Gulf sentinel tagging program with emphasis on recaptures from adjacent management units.” DFO Canadian Science Advisory Secr. Research Doc. 2001/002: 23 p.

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