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Rebuilding plan: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)NAFO Divisions 4T and 4Vn

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Gulf Region

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Summary

Atlantic cod stock of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL), NAFO Divisions 4T and 4Vn has remained in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) framework since 2005. Overfishing was the cause for the rapid decline in abundance during the early 1990s. Although commercial fishing effort was reduced in 1993, increased natural mortality and continued small catches have led to a continuing decline. Extremely high natural mortality of cod 5 years and older is now the reason for the lack of recovery of this stock. Recruit abundance has also been declining since the mid-1980s due to declining Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB), despite above average recruitment rates for most recent year classes.

Over the past decade, evidence has accumulated in support of the hypothesis that the elevated natural mortality of sGSL cod is due to predation by grey seals. It is anticipated that at the current abundance level of grey seals, further decline of the sGSL cod SSB is expected. Under the current ecosystem productivity, the population is expected to be commercially extinct (i.e., SSB < 1,000 t) by mid-century, even with no catch. Given the low productivity and high natural mortality of the stock, and the lack of response to reduced fishing to date, rebuilding of this stock is not expected unless natural mortality is reduced significantly and/or stock productivity improves.

As outlined in the PA framework, the primary objective of this rebuilding plan is to promote growth of the sGSL Atlantic cod stock out of the critical zone, ensuring that removals from all fishing sources are kept to the lowest possible level until the stock has cleared this zone. The rebuilding target for the plan will be to grow the stock so that it is above the Limit Reference Point (LRP) of 210,000 t with a high likelihood (≥75%). If the rebuilding target can be reached, the long-term management objective under the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) will be to continue the stock’s growth toward the healthy zone and then maintain the stock’s Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) in that zone. Achieving and maintaining the SSB in the healthy zone would be to the benefit of all Canadians, including:

Unfortunately, rebuilding of the Atlantic cod population seems unlikely at the current level of natural mortality, even without fishing. These conditions are such that a rebuilding timeline to the rebuilding target cannot be calculated at this time. During each periodic review of the plan, the factors limiting this stock potential for growth will be reassessed to determine if they are still influencing the stock and whether a rebuilding timeline can be calculated. In the meantime, this rebuilding plan aims at minimizing, to the extent possible, further declines of the stock. This is to preserve the stock such that, should the prevailing conditions limiting its’ recovery change, the stock retains the potential to rebuild.

Guided by the PA framework, management actions set out in this rebuilding plan maintain low fishing mortality to support rebuilding while continuing to monitor and assess the stock. This will be done through:

Acronyms used in this document

Forward

In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) developed a fisheries decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach (PA Policy)Footnote 1 under the auspices of the Sustainable Fisheries Framework Footnote 2 . It outlines the departmental methodology for applying the precautionary approach (PA) to Canadian fisheries. A key component of the PA Policy requires that when a stock has declined to or below its limit reference point (LRP), a rebuilding plan must be in place with the aim of having a high probability of the stock growing above the LRP within a reasonable timeframe.

In addition, under section 6.2 of the fish stocks provisions (FSP) in the amended Fisheries Act(2019), rebuilding plans must be developed and implemented for prescribed major fish stocks that have declined to or below their LRP. This legislated requirement is supported by section 70 of the Fishery (General) Regulations(FGR), which set out the required contents of those rebuilding plans and establishes a timeline for each rebuilding plan’s development.

The purpose of this plan is to identify the main rebuilding objectives for Atlantic cod in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 4T and 4Vn, as well as the management measures that will be used to achieve these objectives. This plan provides a common understanding of the basic “rules” for rebuilding the stock(s). This stock is prescribed in the Fishery (General) Regulations(section 69) and thus is subject to section 6.2 of the Fisheries Act and regulatory requirements.

The objectives and measures outlined in this plan are applicable until the stock has reached its rebuilding target. Once the stock is determined to be at the target, the stock will be managed through the standard Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) or other fishery management processes in order to fulfill the requirements of the FSP. Management measures outlined in this rebuilding plan are mandatory, and may be modified or further measures added if they fail to result in stock rebuilding.

This rebuilding plan is not a legally binding instrument which can form the basis of a legal challenge. The plan can be modified at any time and does not fetter the Minister's discretionary powers set out in the Fisheries Act. The Minister can, for reasons of conservation or for any other valid reasons, modify any provision of the rebuilding plan in accordance with the powers granted pursuant to the Fisheries Act.

Decisions flowing from the application of this rebuilding plan must respect the rights of Indigenous peoples of Canada recognized and affirmed by section 35 of the Constitution Act (1982), including those through modern treaties. Where DFO is responsible for implementing a rebuilding plan in an area subject to a modern treaty, the rebuilding plan will be implemented in a manner consistent with that agreement. The plan should also be guided by the 1990

Sparrow decision of the Supreme Court of Canada, which found that where an Aboriginal group has a right to fish for food, social and ceremonial purposes, it takes priority, after conservation, over other uses of the resource.

The Honourable Diane Lebouthillier, P.C., M.P.

Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard

1.0 Introduction and context

1.1 Population and distribution

Atlantic cod is a demersal gadoid distributed in the northwest Atlantic Ocean from Greenland to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, the species is predominantly found off Newfoundland, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and on the Scotian Shelf (Lough 2004).

Figure 1:North Atlantic Fishing Organization (NAFO) divisions and subdivisions.
Description

Figure 1

Description

Map showing the the North Atlantic Fishing Organization (NAFO) divisions and subdivisions along the Canadian Atlantic coast from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia. Divisions 4T and 4Vn are used to define the boundaries of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic Cod stock.

Cod in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) – North Atlantic Fishing Organization (NAFO) Divisions 4T-Vn (Figure 1) is considered a stock for management purposes by DFO. However, the population size or Designable Unit (DU) as defined by the Committee on the Status of Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), consists of 3 stocks identified as the Laurentian South DU:

Cod in this DU is distributed from the sGSL, through the Cabot Strait down to the Eastern Scotian Shelf (COSEWIC 2010).

The sGSL stock of Atlantic cod overwinters in dense aggregations in relatively warm water along the southern slope of the Laurentian Channel in the sGSL and the neighboring Cabot Strait area. In April and early May, the stock migrates into the sGSL to spawn and feed, although this can be delayed if breakup of winter ice is late (Swain et al . 1998). The return to overwintering grounds normally occurs in November. Due to the concentration of a high proportion of the population in these limited areas in particular seasons, the population is particularly susceptible to threats at these times and places.

1.2 Biology

The sGSL 4T-Vn Atlantic cod is normally relatively long-lived and may reach ages of 20 years or more when mortality is low. In comparisons with cod stocks in Sydney Bight (4Vn), eastern Scotian Shelf (4VsW) and Georges Bank, 4T-Vn cod had relatively high size-specific fecundity, high gonadosomatic index and large eggs. This may represent a selection response to slower growth and later maturation for this particular stock, resulting in higher pre-reproductive mortality and fewer lifetime reproductive events (McIntyre and Hutchings, 2003). Weight-at-age of 4T-Vn cod has been low since the mid-1980s. This low weight-at-age contributes to the production deficit currently experienced by this stock (Swain et al . 2012).

Cod in the sGSL begin to reach commercial size (43 cm) at about age 5 and are fully available to the commercial fishery by age 8. Historically, 4T-Vn cod began to mature at 5-6 years of age and most were mature by age 9. However, age and length at 50% maturity declined in the 1950s and 1960s, and since the early 1970s most fish in the population have been mature by age 6.

The natural mortality of 4T-Vn cod started to increase in the 1980s and has been high in the 1990s and 2000s. The high natural mortality of adult cod since the 1990s may be a cause of the continued early maturation in this population, now replacing fishing mortality as the agent of selection favoring early maturity (Swain et al . 2012). Predation by grey seals has since been concluded to be the main cause of the elevated natural mortality of this cod stock over the past 20 years (Swain et al . 2019).

Generation time is estimated to be 12 years (Swain et al . 2012).

1.3 Habitat requirements

In general, distributions of young stages of Atlantic cod tend to be restricted to the vicinity of spawning centers. Juveniles settle to the ocean floor in complex coastal habitats for one to 4 years. With increasing age, they tend to be more widely distributed and occur in deeper, colder and more saline water (Tremblay and Sinclair 1985).

The median temperatures occupied by southern Gulf cod generally vary from about 1° to 3.5°C in summer (depending on age and time period) and 5° to 6°C in winter. Given the broad distribution of waters suitable for cod in the southern Gulf and the Cabot Strait, habitat is not considered to be limiting for this population. Southern Gulf cod do not have any known dwelling-place similar to a den or nest during any part of their life (COSEWIC 2010; Swain et al. 2012). However, strong risk avoidance effects have been demonstrated for Atlantic cod in the sGSL, whose distribution has shifted out of habitats where the risk of predation by grey seals has become high into lower risk but less profitable habitats (Swain et al. 2015).

1.4 Ecosystem interactions

Atlantic cod feed on:

The ecosystem in the sGSL has changed dramatically in recent decades. Abundances of many large-bodied demersal fishes (e.g., Atlantic cod, white hake, American plaice, and skates) have declined to very low levels, and continue to decrease. These fishes currently have elevated natural mortality at adult sizes. In contrast, small non-exploited fishes such as alligator fish, capelin and sculpins, which may be important sources of prey for cod, have increased in abundance (Benoît and Swain 2008). More recently, pelagic forage fish species such as herring (DFO 2022a) and mackerel (DFO 2021a) have also declined. Grey seals (year-round residents) and harp seals (present in winter and early spring) are also at high levels of abundance (DFO 2020, DFO 2022b) and have contributed to important increase of natural mortality of cod and several other bottom-dwelling species (Neuenhoff et al . 2019 and Rossi et al. 2021). Currently, predation by grey seals is concluded to be the main cause of the elevated natural mortality of the sGSL (NAFO Division 4T-Vn) cod stock (Swain et al. 2019).

1.5 Fishery

The sGSL groundfish fishery consists of 9 major stocks (Table 1), distributed and managed within the North Atlantic Fishing Organization (NAFO) Division 4RST and subdivision 4Vn (Figure 1). Although the present rebuilding plan focuses on Atlantic cod, the management of this stock is closely linked to all other groundfish stocks in NAFO Divisions 4T-Vn.

Since the early 1990s, unique management measures have been put in place to address the serious decline of many groundfish populations, and in the worst cases their collapse, resulting in the introduction of moratoria and significant quota reductions. Unfortunately, the outlooks for many of these stocks remain precarious, with 5 out of 9 stocks currently in the critical zone. Of these, 4 are prescribed in the Fishery (General) Regulations (section 69) and therefore subject to section 6.2 of the Fisheries Act and regulatory requirements (Table 1).

Four of these stocks have also been assessed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as potential candidates for listing under the Species at Risk Act (SARA) (Table 1; both Redfish species are being considered as one stock for the purpose of management).

Most groundfish stocks managed within NAFO Division 4T and Subdivision 4Vn overlap in both space and time, which increases the likelihood of species under moratorium or other non-targeted groundfish species being caught incidentally in other directed groundfish fisheries. As management measures are being developed for specific fisheries, it becomes important to consider all potential interactions and sources of fishing mortality. Several commercial groundfish fisheries are carried out in the sGSL and bycatch of Atlantic cod can still occur in these fisheries (Table 1). Cod is also harvested as part of a recreational fishery, and by First Nations for community harvesting, and for Food, Social and Ceremonial (FSC) purposes.

Table 1. Most common groundfish stocks harvested in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Atlantic Cod 1, Gadus morhua

Atlantic Halibut, Hippoglossus hippoglossus

American plaice 1, Hippoglossoides platessoides

Greenland halibut (turbot or black halibut), Reinhardtius hippoglossoides

White hake1, Urophycis tenuis

Winter flounder1, Pseudopleuronectes americanus

Witch flounder, Glypocephalus cynoglossus

Redfish, Sebastes fasciatus and Sebastes mentalla

Yellowtail flounder, Pleuronectes ferrugineus

1 Stock prescribed in the Fishery (General) Regulations (section 69) and thus is subject to section 6.2 of the Fisheries Act and regulatory requirements.
2 Year since the stock has been assessed in the critical zone of the PA framework.
3 Status as presented in the latest COSEWIC assessment and status report. At the time of publication of this rebuilding plan, no decision regarding listing under SARA has been made.

The Gulf Groundfish Advisory Committee (GGAC), which brings together harvesters, processors, Indigenous groups, DFO and provincial government representatives from the 4 Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, provides advice and recommendations to the department for the management of commercially exploited Gulf groundfish stocks in NAFO Divisions 4RSTVn and 3Pn. The advisory committee meets every 2 years and serves as a forum for sharing results of recent stock assessments, for industry stakeholders and right holders to address issues affecting groundfish fisheries, and, most importantly, for DFO to solicit input from committee members on key management decisions.

In 2017, a Groundfish - Gulf of St. Lawrence NAFO Subdivisions 3Pn, 4Vn and Divisions 4RST Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP)Footnote 3 was developed by DFO in consultation with the GGAC. The IFMP provides detailed operational management information pertaining to mixed groundfish fisheries in the sGSL, including the Atlantic cod bycatch fishery. An update to the Gulf Groundfish IFMP is underway and will account for stocks that are subject to a rebuilding plan, as all management measures outlined in the plan will supersede or will be in addition to those in the IFMP.

1.6 Overview of the fishery, socio-economic and cultural importance

From a historical perspective, the Atlantic cod fishery was once of major importance to the commercial fishing industry of the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec. This fishery was at the core of the cultural roots of many rural coastal communities. However, in the early 1990s it became clear that groundfish populations were in distress and as a result, many cod stocks ceased to be fished from 1992-93 onwards. Nevertheless, Atlantic cod remains an emblematic species for those whose livelihood relies on fisheries. Atlantic cod is, to this day, considered the species upon which Atlantic fisheries were built.

Southern Gulf cod have been fished since the sixteenth century or earlier. Annual landings varied between 20,000 and 40,000 t in the early to mid-20th century. Landings began to increase in the mid-1940s, peaking at 104,000 t in 1956. Except for a brief period in the mid-1970s, landings remained high, near or above 60,000 t, in most years until the early 1990s when the stock collapsed and the fishery was closed. Following a moratorium on directed fishing from September 1993 to May 1998, the fishery was reopened with a total allowable catch (TAC) of 3,000 t in 1998 and 6,000 t in 1999-2002. The directed fishery was again closed in 2003, but reopened in 2004 with a TAC of 3,000-4,000 t, declining to 2,000 t in 2007 and 2008. The directed fishery was closed once again in 2009 and has remained under moratorium since then. An overall bycatch TAC of 300 t has been set to account for:

From 2011 to 2020, Atlantic cod was reported as bycatch (Table 2) when harvesters were directing for:

In 2020, 327 commercial groundfish licence holders reported a total of 54 t of Atlantic cod bycatch landings in NAFO Divisions 4T-Vn with an associated value of $129,671 in 2020 (Table 2). Most groundfish harvesters in the sGSL also have access (i.e., fishing licences) to other species of greater commercial value, such as snow crab, shrimp, and lobster, while a limited number of harvesters have specialized in groundfish fishing only.

Table 2. Atlantic cod bycatch landings in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Divisions 4T-Vn) from 2011 to 2020.

1 Preliminary data. Catches from the recreational and FSC fisheries, and catches from the scientific RV survey and sentinel fishery are not included since removal estimates are not available. Source: DFO; Gulf, Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador Regions.

The landed value of the 4T-Vn Atlantic cod harvest between 2011 and 2020 is distributed among the provinces of:

There is currently an authorized groundfish recreational fishery with access to Atlantic cod in the waters adjacent to the Maritime Provinces in the sGSL Footnote 4. This fishery is open for 5 weeks or less annually. Anglers are able to retain, in any day, a bag limit of 15 groundfish of all species, including a total of not more than 5 cod and/or white hake in the aggregate. There is also spring-summer recreational groundfish fishery in the Saguenay Fjord, St. Lawrence Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence with access to Atlantic codFootnote 5.

A winter recreational groundfish fishery, commonly known as ice fishing, is conducted in the province of Quebec and is open for approximately 3 months from January to March in the Saguenay FjordFootnote 6. The fishery is subject to a daily bag limit of 5 groundfish. Although redfish is the main species caught, other species caught in this fishery include Atlantic cod. No removal estimates are available for Atlantic cod in any of these recreational fisheries, but the amount is likely to be minimal (from qualitative field observations obtained from Conservation and Protection fishery officers).

Under the Aboriginal Community Fishing Licence RegulationsFootnote 7 and Aboriginal Fisheries Strategy (AFS) agreements Footnote 8, Indigenous communities can catch Atlantic cod if they hold groundfish licences. Atlantic cod can also be fished as part of the Indigenous FSC fishery. FSC fisheries are managed, where licensed, under the Aboriginal Community Fishing Licence Regulations and AFS agreements. The species caught under FSC licence conditions are not allowed to be sold and there are no estimates available for removals of Atlantic cod in this fishery. However, the quantity is likely minimal (from qualitative field observations obtained from Conservation and Protection fishery officers).

1.7 Involvement of stakeholder and Indigenous groups in the development of the plan

A first meeting was held on September 24, 2020 with industry stakeholders and Indigenous partners to discuss the rebuilding plan development process and to solicit participation in a Gulf Groundfish Rebuilding Plans Working Group that would assist the department in developing the plans. Due to Covid restrictions limiting face-to-face meetings, DFO developed a questionnaire outlining rebuilding objectives and proposed management measures as an alternative means to solicit input from stakeholders and rights holders. The questionnaire was sent to members of the Gulf Groundfish Rebuilding Plan Working Group on December 15, 2020. An information session with Indigenous partners was also held on January 26, 2021.

The purpose of the questionnaire was to initiate discussions and gather views on rebuilding options for four groundfish stocks, including Atlantic cod. Stakeholders and rights holders were invited to comment on the proposed objectives and rebuilding measures, and to recommend alternative or additional rebuilding measures to the management measures presented. Although consolidated comments were sought through the Gulf Groundfish Rebuilding Plan Working Group, any member from the fishing industry, First Nations or Indigenous organizations could submit individual comments in writing.

In 2003, the Privy Council Office, on behalf of the Government of Canada, published a framework applicable to all federal government departments that set out guiding principles for the application of precaution to decision-making about risks of serious or irreversible harm where there is a lack of full scientific certainty.

A fisheries decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach was developed (DFO 2009), and applies where decisions on harvest strategies or harvest rates for a stock must be taken to determine TAC or other measures to control harvests. The framework applies to key harvested stocks managed by DFO: those stocks that are the specific and intended targets of a fishery, whether in a commercial, recreational or subsistence fishery. In applying the framework, all removals of these stocks from all types of fishing must be taken into account.

The following are the primary components of the generalized framework:

Reference points as defined by the Precautionary Approach Framework (DFO 2009) were partially estimated for the Atlantic cod stock in 2003 (Chouinard et al. 2003) and revised in 2024 (DFO 2024a, Turcotte et al. 2024) (Table 3). Since the comprehensive stock assessment is normally conducted every 4 years, interim biomass indicators based on the results of the September science research survey are also developed to report on the stock status without going through a full assessment.

Table 3. Summary of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework reference points and COSEWIC/SARA status for NAFO 4T-Vn Atlantic cod.

PA reference point

COSEWIC status: Threatened (COSEWIC 2010)
SARA status: No schedule, no status

The last full assessment of the Atlantic cod stock of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL), NAFO Div. 4T-Vn, was completed in February 2024 (DFO 2024b). The spawning stock biomass (SSB) at the start of 2023 was estimated at 12,000 t, 5% of the average level in the 1980s and 3% of the estimated average SSB in the 1950s (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) in 1,000s of tons (kt) for the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic cod (NAFO 4T-Vn). Black line is the median SSB estimate and grey shading is the 95% confidence interval (DFO 2024b). The colored horizontal lines represent the different reference points for the stock (Turcotte et al. 2024).
Description

Figure 2

Description

Graphic showing estimates of spawning stock biomass in 1,000s of tons (kt) for the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic cod (NAFO 4T-Vn) from 1950 to 2018. Reference points for the stock are also illustrated with different horizontal colored lines: red line = Limit Reference Point (LRP) of 210,000 t; green full line = Upper Stock Reference (USR) of 336,000 t; green dash line = Target Reference Point (TRP) of 420,000 t.

Estimated SSB peaked at around 320 kt in the mid-1950s, declining to 120 kt by the mid-1970s. The biomass recovered rapidly in the late 1970s, reaching a peak of 370 kt in 1981. It then collapsed between 1987 and around 1993, when directed fishing was closed. The biomass increased slightly to 120 kt during the moratorium from 1994 to 1997. Directed fishing then reopened at a low level and the decline in the stock resumed, falling to 36 kt in 2009, when a moratorium was again imposed. The decline in the stock slowed for a time after the moratorium was imposed, but the decline resumed despite the absence of commercial fishing. Estimated SSB levels in early 2019 and 2020 each set a new record for the lowest biomass observed.

Year SSB (kt) Confidence interval - low value Conficance interval - high value
1950 288.5 232.4 379.2
1951 292.6 236.7 385.4
1952 306.0 248.9 398.6
1953 314.5 259.6 396.1
1954 313.8 262.3 380.9
1955 297.1 251.9 352.6
1956 295.0 256.6 342.8
1957 272.6 236.8 314.7
1958 249.2 218.6 289.5
1959 202.9 175.5 236.2
1960 162.4 137.6 188.8
1961 188.3 160.8 215.7
1962 230.4 198.0 263.3
1963 243.6 212.9 275.8
1964 198.1 171.7 224.8
1965 171.0 147.5 194.3
1966 135.9 115.8 155.5
1967 125.0 107.7 141.9
1968 162.8 145.4 181.7
1969 176.5 160.2 194.1
1970 189.5 175.2 206.9
1971 170.0 157.5 186.9
1972 158.8 147.6 174.7
1973 129.2 119.5 143.7
1974 122.8 113.0 139.8
1975 115.6 104.8 135.9
1976 115.5 102.7 139.7
1977 141.9 122.2 177.2
1978 220.9 190.7 278.9
1979 285.6 245.2 367.6
1980 311.3 267.5 412.2
1981 342.1 291.4 452.1
1982 341.0 287.3 449.6
1983 336.5 278.9 439.1
1984 313.9 255.7 407.8
1985 315.4 261.7 413.4
1986 307.3 258.8 408.8
1987 264.3 224.6 348.3
1988 230.3 198.5 302.6
1989 201.7 174.7 260.5
1990 169.5 146.1 217.2
1991 139.8 117.1 180.3
1992 112.5 91.2 152.6
1993 91.7 71.1 133.2
1994 92.9 73.3 133.9
1995 98.7 80.1 140.9
1996 105.6 86.2 150.3
1997 113.6 92.7 158.6
1998 114.5 94.0 159.6
1999 110.1 90.4 152.2
2000 109.5 88.4 148.3
2001 110.3 87.7 145.6
2002 98.3 77.6 128.4
2003 85.8 68.0 113.9
2004 81.3 64.7 107.6
2005 70.7 57.0 92.1
2006 64.6 52.9 84.4
2007 56.5 46.1 73.8
2008 44.7 36.4 58.0
2009 33.1 26.8 43.4
2010 30.3 24.5 40.3
2011 28.5 23.0 37.9
2012 26.3 21.4 34.3
2013 24.6 20.1 31.9
2014 24.5 20.3 31.6
2015 26.3 22.0 33.7
2016 25.6 21.3 32.6
2017 20.9 17.1 25.8
2018 14.1 11.2 17.7
2019 10.7 8.4 13.8
2020 10.4 7.7 13.5
2021 11.5 8.2 15.5
2022 12.9 8.9 18.0
2023 11.9 7.8 16.5

Atlantic cod in the sGSL has remained in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach framework since 1990. The limit reference point (LRP) for this stock, the level below which the stock is considered to have suffered serious harm to its productivity, was estimated in 2024 to be 210,000t of SSB (Turcotte et al. 2024).

As full cod stock assessments are carried out on a 4-year cycle, DFO indicated that an interim update would be provided mid-way through the cycle, to allow sufficient time to complete a full assessment and plan the peer review if the indicator signaled that a re-assessment is warranted (Swain et al. 2019).

Since the cod-directed fishery closure in 2009, the fishery exploitation rate has averaged 0.2% for ages 5-8 and 0.7% for ages 9 plus. These low levels have a negligible impact on the population trajectory (Swain et al. 2019).

Figure 3: Estimates of the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality (F) and natural mortality (M) in yr-1, of southern gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic cod (NAFO 4T-Vn) for ages 5 to 8, and ages 9+, from 1950 to 2023. Shaded areas are 95% confidence intervals (DFO 2024b).
Description

Figure 3

Description

Graph showing fluctuations in fishing mortality and natural mortality for the 5-8 and 9+ age groups, from 1950 to 2023. Instantaneous natural mortality rate of adult cod (5 years and older) has increased over the past 40 years from more stardard levels of 0.2/year to high values, greater than 0.8/year.

Year F(1/yr) Confidence interval - low value Conficance interval - high value M ages 5-8 yrs (1/yr Confidence interval - low value Conficance interval - high value M ages 9+ yrs (1/yr) Confidence interval - low value Conficance interval - high value
1950 0.094 0.073 0.115 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1951 0.067 0.053 0.080 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1952 0.086 0.071 0.100 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1953 0.125 0.106 0.146 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1954 0.177 0.152 0.203 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1955 0.146 0.125 0.165 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1956 0.208 0.179 0.236 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1957 0.203 0.179 0.229 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1958 0.307 0.274 0.347 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1959 0.357 0.310 0.413 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1960 0.213 0.188 0.246 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1961 0.204 0.180 0.235 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1962 0.151 0.135 0.175 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1963 0.285 0.253 0.329 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1964 0.288 0.256 0.332 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1965 0.416 0.368 0.480 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1966 0.360 0.316 0.416 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1967 0.286 0.254 0.323 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1968 0.313 0.283 0.352 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1969 0.270 0.246 0.296 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1970 0.403 0.368 0.438 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1971 0.340 0.308 0.368 0.178 0.145 0.208 0.346 0.288 0.400
1972 0.502 0.451 0.545 0.182 0.147 0.236 0.337 0.276 0.418
1973 0.476 0.423 0.518 0.188 0.156 0.235 0.330 0.274 0.402
1974 0.514 0.446 0.565 0.201 0.163 0.253 0.325 0.266 0.418
1975 0.444 0.379 0.493 0.219 0.176 0.294 0.322 0.259 0.433
1976 0.413 0.335 0.467 0.238 0.195 0.326 0.320 0.257 0.416
1977 0.218 0.178 0.258 0.251 0.206 0.346 0.331 0.257 0.421
1978 0.215 0.171 0.250 0.264 0.202 0.348 0.352 0.272 0.439
1979 0.226 0.172 0.265 0.272 0.202 0.345 0.384 0.286 0.473
1980 0.194 0.146 0.226 0.273 0.216 0.351 0.411 0.329 0.498
1981 0.227 0.172 0.269 0.283 0.224 0.363 0.429 0.365 0.531
1982 0.190 0.145 0.228 0.293 0.241 0.375 0.443 0.366 0.558
1983 0.221 0.169 0.269 0.292 0.243 0.380 0.472 0.404 0.581
1984 0.175 0.134 0.215 0.293 0.242 0.367 0.529 0.409 0.644
1985 0.189 0.143 0.231 0.288 0.227 0.362 0.555 0.439 0.693
1986 0.220 0.165 0.261 0.291 0.241 0.362 0.549 0.458 0.699
1987 0.222 0.169 0.265 0.303 0.246 0.396 0.571 0.475 0.702
1988 0.263 0.202 0.302 0.325 0.258 0.423 0.576 0.494 0.722
1989 0.338 0.263 0.397 0.334 0.265 0.436 0.616 0.508 0.766
1990 0.402 0.313 0.468 0.351 0.294 0.471 0.622 0.509 0.779
1991 0.423 0.326 0.510 0.374 0.292 0.471 0.655 0.524 0.790
1992 0.419 0.298 0.528 0.406 0.326 0.507 0.676 0.549 0.815
1993 0.053 0.037 0.068 0.437 0.357 0.521 0.659 0.539 0.789
1994 0.009 0.006 0.011 0.441 0.373 0.513 0.625 0.544 0.740
1995 0.007 0.005 0.008 0.438 0.373 0.498 0.627 0.529 0.728
1996 0.006 0.004 0.008 0.440 0.363 0.509 0.605 0.526 0.703
1997 0.008 0.006 0.010 0.441 0.379 0.518 0.593 0.527 0.719
1998 0.014 0.010 0.017 0.457 0.388 0.544 0.610 0.529 0.719
1999 0.027 0.020 0.034 0.463 0.385 0.536 0.609 0.532 0.726
2000 0.030 0.022 0.038 0.469 0.403 0.560 0.647 0.567 0.756
2001 0.034 0.025 0.043 0.492 0.436 0.568 0.683 0.584 0.774
2002 0.032 0.024 0.041 0.527 0.472 0.592 0.705 0.632 0.792
2003 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.538 0.486 0.605 0.699 0.622 0.800
2004 0.017 0.013 0.021 0.555 0.492 0.619 0.737 0.643 0.816
2005 0.023 0.017 0.028 0.574 0.517 0.632 0.796 0.698 0.948
2006 0.026 0.020 0.032 0.623 0.552 0.690 0.842 0.748 0.951
2007 0.019 0.015 0.024 0.683 0.591 0.765 0.872 0.766 1.001
2008 0.026 0.020 0.033 0.712 0.646 0.810 0.888 0.736 1.005
2009 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.710 0.626 0.784 0.907 0.825 0.998
2010 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.690 0.626 0.773 0.948 0.858 1.054
2011 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.734 0.658 0.794 0.852 0.758 0.939
2012 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.797 0.738 0.864 0.777 0.668 0.866
2013 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.774 0.702 0.867 0.750 0.642 0.878
2014 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.752 0.685 0.824 0.736 0.650 0.811
2015 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.756 0.675 0.852 0.837 0.740 0.922
2016 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.813 0.720 0.909 0.899 0.816 1.003
2017 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.931 0.817 1.044 0.845 0.763 0.945
2018 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.947 0.846 1.058 0.888 0.784 1.004
2019 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.875 0.778 0.976 1.112 0.985 1.246
2020 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.813 0.709 0.903 1.252 1.107 1.407
2021 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.865 0.736 0.988 1.248 1.071 1.400
2022 0.004 0.003 0.006 0.999 0.781 1.229 1.219 1.012 1.443
2023 0.003 0.002 0.004 1.017 0.725 1.327 1.222 1.002 1.531

Instantaneous natural mortality (M) of about 0.2 (equivalent to a mortality of 18% annually) is considered normal for adult cod. For NAFO 4T-Vn adult cod (ages 5+), M began to increase in the 1970s, reaching levels above 0.8 in recent years (Figure 3). Extremely high natural mortality of cod 5 years and older is the reason for the lack of recovery of this stock and its continued decline. The fishing mortality (F) exerted by the limited removals is negligible and marginal compared to natural mortality (DFO 2024b).

Recruit abundance has also declined since the mid-1980s due to declining SSB (Figure 4). Despite a few good recruitment events of young fish (less than 4 years old) since the last assessment (Swain et al. 2019), the declining trend has continued (DFO 2024b).

2.1 COSEWIC assessment/SARA considerations

Figure 4: Estimated number of recruits in millions of fish less than 4 years old, from 1950 to 2023. Shaded area is the 95% confidence interval (DFO 2024b).
Description

Figure 2

Description

Graph showing the variation in recruitment of Atlantic cod less than 4 years old from 1950 to 2023. Estimated recruitment levels peaked in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and then declined steadily to low levels.

Year Recruits in millions of fish Confidence interval - low value Conficance interval - high value
1950 299.1 195.5 403.7
1951 306.5 219.6 415.1
1952 293.8 220.2 432.5
1953 201.1 150.1 280.8
1954 211.4 156.7 292.9
1955 250.8 180.3 338.9
1956 315.1 242.4 418.0
1957 320.0 245.1 467.2
1958 334.0 245.7 482.8
1959 296.7 219.4 390.4
1960 85.1 61.8 111.1
1961 122.3 91.2 177.8
1962 124.5 89.4 164.1
1963 141.1 103.7 185.0
1964 149.5 116.5 191.0
1965 154.3 125.1 204.2
1966 213.6 163.3 291.6
1967 195.1 161.7 246.3
1968 176.6 132.3 220.7
1969 149.2 125.0 187.4
1970 152.4 123.4 195.7
1971 123.1 100.0 169.5
1972 154.3 119.2 213.0
1973 154.9 119.5 222.9
1974 170.6 127.9 246.6
1975 366.1 256.5 487.5
1976 444.5 309.2 643.3
1977 514.5 386.0 751.8
1978 388.3 290.9 598.8
1979 373.8 267.9 590.6
1980 290.7 189.1 505.1
1981 426.4 312.4 699.0
1982 467.7 313.8 748.0
1983 306.7 211.1 543.4
1984 313.9 213.7 544.7
1985 270.8 200.0 497.1
1986 255.1 173.1 488.2
1987 239.0 167.6 439.5
1988 242.1 162.3 412.0
1989 244.5 172.4 442.7
1990 219.0 140.5 364.8
1991 172.3 119.8 267.5
1992 160.3 106.2 248.3
1993 140.8 101.3 247.3
1994 156.9 107.7 273.5
1995 123.6 87.6 221.0
1996 164.7 122.6 288.6
1997 159.1 119.7 249.8
1998 140.3 101.8 220.8
1999 123.7 85.3 181.4
2000 88.8 63.6 134.5
2001 101.5 70.2 152.0
2002 99.0 73.5 161.5
2003 128.1 91.2 208.7
2004 70.8 49.4 117.5
2005 63.8 46.2 115.4
2006 40.0 29.5 67.4
2007 58.5 42.7 95.0
2008 52.5 39.4 82.7
2009 39.6 29.5 62.2
2010 56.2 41.8 91.9
2011 51.3 38.3 78.8
2012 51.7 38.2 83.8
2013 50.6 36.7 80.4
2014 34.5 24.7 54.0
2015 23.8 16.6 38.3
2016 18.4 13.3 29.3
2017 25.2 17.4 36.6
2018 29.4 18.8 44.1
2019 38.9 25.8 60.0
2020 36.9 23.5 57.3
2021 9.8 6.2 16.0
2022 15.9 9.6 26.6
2023 11.6 6.9 25.6

In its 2003 assessment of Atlantic cod, the COSEWIC designated the Maritimes Designable Unit (DU) Special Concern. The sGSL cod stock was part of this DU. In April 2010 COSEWIC reassessed Atlantic cod and split the previous Maritimes DU into 2 populations (COSEWIC 2010):

The Atlantic cod in the sGSL was part of the Laurentian South DU, and was designated as Endangered by COSEWIC.

According to the 2010 COSEWIC assessment, there was a 90% decline in population abundance over the previous 3 generations, and the main cause of the rapid decline in abundance during the early 1990s was overfishing. Commercial fisheries were curtailed in 1993 and population abundance stabilized for a number of years. However, increased natural mortality and continued small catches have caused further declines in abundance. This DU includes the management units for Atlantic cod in the NAFO divisions:

Atlantic cod (Laurentian South DU) is currently under consideration for listing under the Species at Risk Act (SARA); however, at the time of publication of this rebuilding plan, no decision regarding listing had been made.

2.2 Indigenous knowledge

DFO aims to incorporate Indigenous traditional knowledge and traditional ecological knowledge considerations in science processes as participants to peer reviews meetings, and into fisheries management planning as members of GGAC. As required, indigenous knowledge is also gathered through consultations with First Nations and other Indigenous organizations.

3.0 Probable causes for the stock’s decline

Overfishing is believed to be the primary cause of initial decline of Atlantic cod in the early 1990s for most cod stocks along the Atlantic shores (Hutchings and Myers 1994; Hutchings 1996; Myers et al. 1997; Shelton and Lilly 2000; Hutchings and Ferguson 2000a,b; Bundy 2001; Fu et al. 2001). For the sGSL cod stock, it appears that the decline which occurred primarily in the period 1986-1992, can be attributed to an increase in both fishing and natural mortalities (Smedbol et al. 2002). With the closure of the fishery, the recent threat limiting survival and rebuilding is now a high natural mortality. Studies have demonstrated that the increasing population of grey seals has led to increased predation on commercially valuable species, creating conflicts with fisheries and calls for some form of predator controls (Neuenhoff et al. 2019 and Rossi et al. 2021). The Atlantic cod stock in the sGSL is experiencing a predation-driven “Allee effect”, in which the per capita rate of population growth decreases as population size decreases. This is opposite to the usual behavior of populations at low abundance.

Additionally, since 2000, this stock has been experiencing a production deficit, averaging negative 7,000t per year, indicative of a “strong Allee effect” (Swain et al. 2019). The Allee threshold was estimated to be 112,000 t, which was crossed in 1993.

At the current level of natural mortality, rebuilding of this stock is highly improbable, even in the absence of fishing. Predation by grey seals is concluded to be the main cause of the elevated natural mortality of this cod stock over the past 20 years, and thus of the Allee effect (Benoît and Swain 2011, Swain et al. 2019). At the current abundance of grey seals in this ecosystem, recovery of this cod stock does not appear to be possible, and its local commercial extinction (SSB < 1,000 t) is highly probable by mid-century. Projections conducted by Neuenhoff et al. (2019) at the 2014 level of grey seal abundance also show continued decline of cod below 100 t by 2064. Models showed that SSB continued to decline although at slower rates, even when grey seal abundance was reduced by 25% or 50% (Neuenhoff et al. 2019). A more recent analysis supports these conclusions with long-term (50 years) stock projections indicating that the stock has a very high probability (97%) of commercial extinction (SSB < 1,000 t), even in the absence of fishing, due to the high level of natural mortality (DFO 2024b).

The loss or degradation of the sGSL Atlantic cod stock’s fish habitat is unlikely to have contributed to the stock’s decline given the current understanding of the best available evidence (Swain et al. 2012). The median temperatures occupied by southern Gulf cod generally vary from about 1o to 3.5oC in summer (depending on age and time period) and 5o to 6oC in winter. Given the broad distribution of waters suitable for cod in the sGSL and the Cabot Strait, habitat is not considered to be limiting for this population. Atlantic cod in the sGSL do not have any known dwelling-place similar to a den or nest during any part of their life.

In the last 20 years, cods have progressively moved out of traditional inshore foraging areas into deeper offshore waters during their feeding season in the sGSL. This appears to result from the high and increasing risk of predation by grey seals in inshore waters in the summer. This change in distribution is expected to incur physiological costs (e.g., reduced foraging success) and has been coincident with declines in the condition of cod (Swain et al. 2019). This shift in distribution to more unfavorable habitat also resulted in sGSL cod distribution now overlapping with other active and emerging fisheries occurring in the Laurentian Channel (Turcotte et al. 2024). Therefore, the primary factors affecting the distribution and habitat selection of older cods are probably:

From a spawning perspective, it is not known if cods have specific habitat requirements (COSEWIC 2010).

The habitat most likely to be important and potentially limiting for juvenile Atlantic cod may well be the vertical, “3-dimensional” structures provided by plants, rocks, physical relief and corals. In addition to providing protection from predators, such physical heterogeneity would certainly provide habitat for small fish and invertebrates, organisms upon which juvenile cod could feed (COSEWIC 2010). If physical structure is important to the survival of juvenile cod, notably in the form of plants, bottom physical relief, and corals, there may be less habitat available today than decades ago in some parts of the range of this species due to the use of bottom-trawling gear. Although physically heterogeneous areas frequented by juvenile cod may not have been heavily trawled, no studies have been undertaken to evaluate the effects of trawling on the quantity and quality of juvenile cod habitat (COSEWIC 2010).

4.0 Measurable objectives aimed at rebuilding the stock

4.1 Rebuilding target and timeline

As outlined in the Precautionary Approach framework (PA), the primary objective of this rebuilding plan is to promote stock growth out of the critical zone (e.g., grow the stock beyond the LRP), by ensuring removals from all fishing sources are kept to the lowest possible level until the stock has cleared this zone. Within the critical zone, this objective remains the same whether the stock is declining, stable or increasing. Based on the PA framework, the overarching objective of the rebuilding plan for NAFO 4T-Vn Atlantic cod is therefore to grow the stock out of the critical zone. The rebuilding target for the plan will be to grow the stock so that it is above the LRP with a high likelihood (≥75%). If the rebuilding target can be reached, the long-term management objective under the IFMP will be to maintain the stock’s growth towards the healthy zone and then maintain the stock’s SSB in that zone. This long-term objective would be to the benefit of all Canadians, including:

Unfortunately, even with no fishing, rebuilding of the NAFO 4T-Vn Atlantic cod population appears to be unlikely at current level of natural mortality. These prevailing conditions are such that a rebuilding timeline to the rebuilding target cannot be calculated. Therefore, the timeline was set to the 12 year generation time of the sGSL cod (DFO 2024a). During each review, the factors limiting this stock potential for growth will be reassessed to determine if they are still influencing the stock and whether a rebuilding timeline can be calculated. In the meantime, and in compliance to the PA framework, this rebuilding plan still aims at minimizing, to the extent possible, further declines of the stock. This is to preserve the stock such that, should the prevailing conditions limiting its recovery change, the stock retains the potential to rebuild.

Over the past decade, evidence has accumulated in support of the hypothesis that the elevated natural mortality of sGSL cod is due to predation by grey seals. Population modeling that directly incorporated predation by grey seals via a functional response indicated that since the year 2000 this predation can account for all of the adult natural mortality above the normal level of natural mortality generally seen for cod (Neuenhoff et al. 2019). At the current level of grey seal abundance, further declines are expected, and the SSB is projected to decline further. Under the current ecosystem productivity, the population is expected to be commercially extinct (i.e., SSB < 1,000 t) by mid-century, even with no catch (Swain et al. 2019).

In the last 20 years, cod have progressively moved out of traditional inshore foraging areas into deeper offshore waters during their feeding season in the sGSL. This appears to result from the high and increasing risk of predation by grey seals in inshore waters in the summer. This change in distribution is expected to incur physiological costs (e.g., reduced foraging success) and has been coincident with declines in the condition of cod.

If considering an ecosystem approach to fisheries management, we may be faced with a trade-off option: increase grey seal removals to allow Atlantic cod and other endangered demersal fishes to recover, or face a high risk of extinction of these populations and allow grey seals abundance to remain high or increase further (Swain et al. 2019). If the choice is to reduce seal abundance, projections indicate that the seal reduction required would now be very large (Neuenhoff et al. 2019). With cod biomass still declining and the increasing seal abundance, a recent study (Rossi et al. 2021) is suggesting that reducing the number of seals to a level that would allow cod to recover could drive the seal population under its limit reference point. These results are suggesting that reducing seal abundance to rebuild cod may no longer be an option. These scenarios of prey-predator relationship and predator reductions would be a challenge to evaluate, considering the multitude and complexity of ecosystem components and species interactions. For example, climate change and ecosystem disruptions due to human activities may also add unpredictability, and may impact negatively or positively the time and success of any management measures.

4.2 Additional measurable objectives and timelines

Under the PA framework, management actions must promote stock growth and removal from all fishing sources must be kept to the lowest possible level while the stock is in the critical zone, and there should be no tolerance for preventable decline.

Table 4 provides an overview of the secondary rebuilding objectives for the NAFO 4T-Vn Atlantic cod stock, aimed at enabling DFO to monitor all sources of mortality, the impacts of implemented management measures, whether there is improvement in the stock status and the overall state of the ecosystem.

Table 4. Additional measurable objectives and timelines aimed at rebuilding Atlantic cod, NAFO 4T-Vn stock.

Secondary objectives

  1. Keep removals from all sources to the lowest possible level by introducing new and/or stricter management measures in all fisheries that intercept Atlantic cod
  2. Monitor sources of fishing mortality and enforce compliance of current management measures.
  3. Advance current scientific knowledge in the fields of monitoring stock status, recruitment, environmental conditions, and those ecosystem factors that are likely to impact the stock’s recruitment, growth, habitat and health.

5.0 Management measures aimed at achieving the objectives

Various management measures will be required to achieve the objectives identified in Table 4. These measures and expected outcomes are presented in Table 5. They are informed by the numerous DFO Sustainable Fisheries Framework (SFF) policies such as the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009), bycatch (DFO 2013) and catch monitoring (DFO 2019b) policies. Since the Atlantic cod (NAFO Division 4T-Vn) is unlikely to rebuild under prevailing conditions (See 3.0 Probable causes for the stock’s decline), the objectives are aimed at preserving the stock such that should the prevailing conditions limiting the stock’s recovery change, the stock retains the potential to rebuild.

Atlantic cod is 1 of 3 groundfish stocks under moratorium with overlapping distributions and listed under schedule XI of the Fishery (General) Regulations. Therefore, the rebuilding plan management measures for Atlantic cod need to take into account the ones in the rebuilding plans for white hake and American plaice, which are also caught as bycatch in other commercial groundfish fisheries, which are Atlantic halibut, Greenland halibut, witch flounder, redfish and yellowtail flounder.

Cumulative effects associated with the implementation of multiple rebuilding plans may present challenges for other active groundfish fisheries, most notably to an emerging commercial redfish fishery in Unit 1, given its overlapping distribution with Atlantic cod and other stocks in the Critical Zone of the Precautionary Approach. Such potential impacts are expected to be monitored through current and newly implemented monitoring measures (see objective 2).

Table 5. Summary of management measures aimed at achieving the rebuilding plan objectives for Atlantic cod in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO 4T-Vn. The year 2024 is considered to be year 1 of this rebuilding plan.

Objective Management measure(s) Expected outcome Biology or environmental conditions taken into account
1 – Keep removals from all sources to the lowest possible level by introducing new and/or stricter management measures in all fisheries that intercept Atlantic cod. Maintain the closure of the directed commercial fishery.

Reduce the annual allocation (TAC) from 152.2 t to 100 t for the 2024 fishing season, with subsequent annual reductions of 5 t until the next periodic review of the rebuilding plan. (i.e., reducing TAC to 85 t in 2027). These TACs are necessary to cover the bycatch of Atlantic cod in other commercial groundfish fisheries and are deemed to be the lowest levels of bycatch that would minimize impact on other commercial fisheries.

Although the comprehensive review of the rebuilding plan is scheduled for 2027 (every 4 years), if after 2 years, the objective set in the plan in term of bycatch level exceeding the TAC, additional adjustment measures may be evaluated and implemented before the next planned review.

New management measures and/or adjustments to existing management measures already in place in other commercial groundfish fisheries may be introduced to further reduce interactions with NAFO Divisions 4T-Vn Atlantic cod. The establishment of a target depth range in specific fisheries or fishing areas, or the introduction of permanent or seasonal spatial-temporal closures are examples of measures that could be implemented.

Note: Average bycatch landing from 2011 to 2020 was 78 t.		 Minimize fishing mortality to the lowest possible levels to preserve the stock such that if prevailing conditions change, it may be able to rebuild.

These TACs would allow other directed groundfish fishing activities to occur (i.e.: Atlantic halibut, Greenland halibut, witch flounder, redfish and other groundfish species) while reducing fishing mortality to the lowest possible level.		 Based on the requirements stated in the PA framework for stock in the critical zone.
As part of the bycatch protocol in place in other commercial groundfish fisheries; reducing the bycatch limit for Atlantic cod in 2027 to ensure consistency across all directed groundfish fisheries. Details on existing bycatch limits in other groundfish fisheries and the revised limits are presented in Annexes 1 and 2.

When the bycatch limit is reached, the fishing area could be closed for a period of time or for the entire season.		 Reducing fishing mortality on mature individuals is intended to avoid the risk of localized productivity depletion and to promote stock growth. This measure takes into account the overall low productivity of the stock and the change of its distribution within the sGSL in response to predation.
Discards of Atlantic cod is not allowed and must be reported as bycatch.
2 – Monitor sources of fishing mortality and enforce compliance of current management measures. In 2024, implement or maintain 100 percent dockside monitoring in all commercial fisheries known to intercept Atlantic cod. Dependable and timely data to locate and quantify bycatches from all fisheries which intercept Atlantic cod.
In 2025, implement the use of VMS (Vessel Monitoring System) in all NAFO Division 4T groundfish fisheries, to monitor fishing effort and bycatch distribution.
In 2025, initiate a pilot project to test the use of electronic monitoring tools (e.g., video monitoring) in a number of commercial groundfish fisheries.
The recreational and FSC fisheries represent non-significant catches (no quantitative data, only qualitative), therefore no additional measures are being implemented at this time.
3 – Advance current scientific knowledge in the fields of monitoring stock status, recruitment, environmental conditions, and those ecosystem factors that are likely to impact the stock’s recruitment, growth, habitat and health. Continue the September annual RV survey, which is the primary data source to estimate stock’s distribution and abundance.

Supplement RV survey data with DFO Science lead research projects and fishery dependent sources, such as harvesters’ logbooks, at-sea observer reports, VMS.

Continue research on ecosystem, species interactions, and natural mortality.

Note: The Upper Stock Reference point (USR) was developed by Science as a candidate value compliant with the PA. Its value needs to be further discussed and validated by fishery managers informed by consultations with fishery stakeholders and other interests.		 Timely stock assessments, interim updates and research results are peer reviewed and published. Identify key spawning grounds, and potential overlap between Atlantic cod and other commercially exploited species to minimize interactions.

6.0 Socio-economic considerations

While a summary analysis of the stock’s economic contribution is presented under section 1.6 of this document, this section provides a socio-economic analysis on the proposed management measures to the extent possible.

The implementation of any new measures to further curtail and monitor the bycatch of Atlantic cod will have an impact on harvesters currently engaging in the remaining directed commercial groundfish fisheries of the sGSL. However, since the reduction in annual bycatch allocation maintains the TAC at a level higher than the annual landings recorded in the past 10 years (see Table 2), impacts are expected to be negligible.

There is considerable uncertainty related to the development of a new commercial fishery for Unit 1 redfish in the sGSL and the impact it could have on the 4T-Vn Atlantic cod stock. There is an overlap in the spatial distribution of redfish and Atlantic cod stocks in the sGSL which will likely result in an increase in Atlantic cod bycatch when the commercial redfish fishery is reopened. However, uncertainties remain regarding the scope, scale, spatial and temporal distribution and marketing opportunities associated with this fishery, as well as the additional mitigation measures the fishery might impose to reduce its impact on 4T-Vn Atlantic cod and other groundfish.

7.0 Method to track progress towards achieving the objectives

Performance metrics provide DFO with a means to assess the progress of the rebuilding plan towards the plan’s objectives. For each objective, Table 6 below outlines how and when progress will be measured.

Table 6.Summary of the performance metrics and frequency of measurement associated with each objective in this rebuilding plan.

  1. Objective: Keep removals from all sources to the lowest possible level by introducing new and/or stricter management measures in all fisheries that intercept Atlantic cod.
  2. Objective: Monitor sources of fishing mortality and enforce compliance of current management measures.
  3. Objective: Advance current scientific knowledge in the fields of monitoring stock status, recruitment, environmental conditions, and those ecosystem factors that are likely to impact the stock’s recruitment, growth, habitat and health.

8.0 Periodic review of the rebuilding plan

The department will engage stakeholders on any matter related to the implementation/review of the rebuilding plan through the established Gulf Groundfish Advisory Committee (GGAC) process. Outcomes from the application of this rebuilding plan will be monitored periodically, and a comprehensive review will be undertaken every 4 years, which corresponds to each science stock assessment.

The review of the plan will be based on the data gathered using the metrics identified in the see method to track progress towards achieving the objectives sectionof this plan. It will assess the progress of the implementation of management measures and evidence of their effectiveness, as well as the status of the stock and recent trends. In addition, the review will include opportunities for consultation with Indigenous partners and stakeholders on their views of the stock’s progress towards rebuilding.

A report will be generated following the review process, which will outline progress toward each management objective according to their timelines, along with evidence and may be used to justify making adjustments to the rebuilding plan if necessary to achieve the objectives.

Stock rebuilding is not always a slow and steady, or even predictable process. Stocks may fluctuate and/or persist at low levels for years until conditions promote surplus production, resulting in rapid growth of the population. Thus, lack of progress towards rebuilding may not be an indication that the rebuilding plan’s objectives or management measures are insufficient or ineffective.

9.0 References

Benoît, H.P., and Swain, D.P. 2008. Impacts of environmental change and direct and indirect harvesting effects on the dynamics of a marine fish community. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 65: 2088-2104.

Benoît, H.P., and Swain, D.P. 2011. Changes in size-dependent mortality in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence marine fish community. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/039. iv + 22 p.

Bundy, A. 2001. Fishing on ecosystems: the interplay of fishing and predation in Newfoundland-Labrador. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 52: 1153-1167.

Chouinard, G.A., Swain, D.P., Currie, L., Poirier, G.A., Rondeau, A., Benoit, H., Hurlbut, T., and Daigle, D. 2003. Assessment of Cod in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, February 2003/Évaluation du stock de morue du sud du golfe du Saint-Laurent, février 2003. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2003/015: 119 p.

COSEWIC. 2010. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Atlantic Cod Gadus morhua in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. xiii + 105 pp.

DFO. 2009. A Fisheries Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (April, 2009).

DFO. 2011. Recovery Potential Assessment for the Laurentian South Designatable Unit of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2011/028.

DFO. 2013. Policy on Managing Bycatch(April, 2013).

DFO. 2019a. Assessment of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn (Nov. – April)) to 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/021.

DFO. 2019b. Fishery Monitoring Policy (November, 2019).

DFO. 2020. 2019 Status of Northwest Atlantic Harp Seals, Pagophilus groenlandicus. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2020/020.

DFO. 2021a. Assessment of the northern contingent of Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber Scombrus) in 2020. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2021/029.

DFO. 2021b. Update of indices of abundance to 2020 for Atlantic Cod (NAFO Div. 4T and 4Vn (November to April)) and American Plaice (NAFO Div. 4T) assessed and managed by DFO Gulf Region. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2021/011.

DFO. 2022a. Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Division 4TVn) spring and fall spawner components of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus) with advice for the 2022 and 2023 fisheries. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2022/021.

DFO. 2022b. Stock assessment of Northwest Atlantic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in Canada in 2021. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2022/018.

DFO. 2024a. Science Advice to Support the Rebuilding Plan for Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO Division 4T-4Vn (November-April). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2024/033.

DFO. 2024b. Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO Division 4T-4VN (November-April), Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Assessment to 2023. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2024/026.

Fu, C., Mohn, R., and L.P. Fanning. 2001. Why the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock off eastern Nova Scotia has not recovered. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58: 1613-1623.

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Hutchings, J.A., and Myers, R.A. 1994. What can be learned from the collapse of a renewable resource? Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, of Newfoundland and Labrador. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2126-2146.

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Annex 1

At-sea observer and dockside monitoring minimum requirements, and bycatch limits by fleet, fishing gear and target species in 2022-23

Halibut: Fixed gear – NAFO Divisions 4RST

Winter flounder: Fixed gear – NAFO Divisions 4RST

Yellowtail flounder: Mobile gear – NAFO Division 4T

Witch flounder: Mobile gear – NAFO Divisions 4RST

Redfish (index fishery): Mobile gear – Unit 1 (4RST, 3Pn, 4Vn)

* Stocks prescribed in the Fishery (General) Regulations (section 69) and thus are subject to section 6.2 of the Fisheries Act and regulatory requirements.
1 Species not specified as bycatch in the conservation harvesting plan, but may be reported as “Other groundfish species” if caught.
DMP: Dockside monitoring program.
ITQ: Individual transferable quota.
VMS: Vessel monitoring system.

Annex 2

Atlantic cod NAFO Divisions 4T-Vn key management measures until the next review of the rebuilding plan in 2027.

Objective 1

Keep removals from all sources to the lowest possible level by introducing new and/or stricter management measures in all fisheries that intercept Atlantic cod.

Objective 2

Monitor sources of fishing mortality and enforce compliance of current groundfish management measures.

1 The bycatch maximum daily limit when directing for 4RST Atlantic halibut (most inshore fixed-gear fleet) is set at 45kg or 30% (whichever is the greatest).

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