Research Document 2019/043

Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments: A review of Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s science advisory process

By Pepin, P., King, J. Holt, C., Gurney-Smith, H., Shackell, N., Hedges, K., and Bundy, A.

Abstract

We report on the use of climate, oceanographic and/or ecological considerations in Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s stock assessment science advisory process. Our evaluation is based on the most recent population assessment for 178 stocks in which Canadian government scientists play a leading role. Assessments were conducted principally through the peer-review process managed by the Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat but other sources include regional peer-reviewed technical evaluations as well as transboundary stocks. We evaluated whether climate, oceanographic and/or ecological information was considered in terms of hypotheses or broad-scale considerations, through quantitative or qualitative analyses, and whether the information served to inform the recommendations concerning current or future stock status. Hypotheses or broad-scale considerations appeared in 46% of assessments; quantitative inclusions occurred in 21% of assessments while qualitative interpretations appeared in 31% of assessments; and 27% of assessments included climate, oceanographic and/or ecological considerations in the advice. Assessments of salmonids, invertebrates and pelagic taxa were more likely to make use of climate, oceanographic and/or ecological data than groundfish and elasmobranchs. The influence of oceanographic factors and/or ecological interactions were considered more often than the effects of climate variables, although the latter were of particular importance in the Pacific and Arctic regions. An assessment of case studies from other jurisdictions reveals that the application of environmental knowledge in stock assessments is often based on strong initiatives dealing with fundamental research into ecosystem dynamics. Although DFO’s stock assessment process appears to make greater use of environmental knowledge than most other jurisdictions, most assessments` do not consider environment factors. Our findings highlight a gap in our ability to respond to climate change based on science advice provided in stock assessments. We provide several recommendations to address DFO’s challenges in achieving a nationally coherent, ecosystem-based responsible approach to managing for changes in climate, oceanographic and/or ecological conditions in Canada’s three Oceans.

Research Document 2019/043 (PDF, 2,161 KB)

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