Science Advisory Report  2015/041

Assessment of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) cod stock in 2014

Summary

• The total allowable catch (TAC) for the 2012 to 2014 period was 1 500 t per year. Landings for those three years totalled 1 311, 1 206 and 1 229 t. Landings from the recreational fishery are not known.
• Commercial fishery performance indicators estimated from fishers’ logbooks (longline and gillnet) show an increase from 2010 to 2013 and a slight decrease in 2014. In 2014, they were at average levels (1997–2013). The results of a survey of fishers regarding their fishing yields paint a similar picture.
• Sentinel fishery catch rates (longline and gillnet) increased from 2010 to 2012 or 2013 and then decreased, down to the series average (1995–2013) in 2014.
• In 2014, abundance indices from the DFO research survey and sentinel fishery trawl survey were above average for their respective series. This increase is attributed largely to year-class abundance from 2011 and 2012. The spatial distribution of cod has expanded in Division 4S and is now similar to that observed in the early 1990s.
• Natural mortality estimated by sequential population analysis (SPA) has increased substantially between 2002 and 2014. Possible causes are predation by seals and unaccounted fishing mortality.
• The estimated exploitation rates from the tagging program and the SPA diminished significantly between 2008 and 2014.
• Recruitment at age three, as estimated by the SPA since 1990, is higher in 2007, 2008 and 2009 (2004 to 2006 cohorts) as well as in 2014 and 2015.
• The spawning stock’s abundance has been in the critical zone, well below the limit reference point, for the last 25 years. Catches in 2015 and 2016 should be kept at the lowest possible level.
• Projections for 2016 and 2017 indicate that, with an annual harvest of 1 500 t (2015-2016 and 2016-2017), the mature biomass should increase. This increase would mainly be related to the abundance of the recent 2011 and 2012 cohorts. However, their abundance will have to be confirmed over the coming years.
• SPA diagnostic tools reveal some uncertainties in the age estimates. This has been a recurring problem for several years. However, these uncertainties cast no doubt on the fact that the stock is still in the critical zone. New analytical approaches could be considered.

This Science Advisory Report is from the February 19, 2015 meeting on the Assessment of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) cod. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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