Science Advisory Report 2025/006

Stock Assessment of Northwest Atlantic Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in 2024

Summary

• The Northwest Atlantic (NWA) harp seal population is hunted throughout its range. Seals are harvested for subsistence purposes in Labrador, Arctic Canada, and Greenland, and a commercial harvest occurs in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and off Newfoundland and Labrador.
• Stock status and harvest advice are provided using an Integrated Population Model which incorporates the periodic estimates of pup production along with updated data on age composition, age-specific reproductive rates, total removals, and environmental conditions.
• Pup production was assessed through photographic aerial surveys conducted between March 5-25, 2022. Total pup production was estimated as 614,100 (SE=69,500, CV=11%) (rounded to the nearest hundred).
• The 2022 pup production estimate is the lowest since 1994.
• Based on the population model, harp seal abundance increased rapidly from the 1970s through the 1990s, peaking at an estimated abundance of 7.5 million seals (95% Credible Interval, CrI: 6.75-8.42) in 1998. The population declined from 1998-2024 with the exception of a period of relative stability between 2009-2019.
• The estimated 2024 total abundance is 4.4 million seals (95% CrI: 3.65-5.35). This represents a decline in abundance from 2019 (5.6 million, 95% CrI: 4.78-6.63) at a rate of 4.7% (95% CrI: 2.14-7.45%) per year.
• Harp seals are managed under the Atlantic Seal Management Strategy (ASMS). Based upon the current population model, the environmental carrying capacity (K) was estimated to be 6.9 million seals (95% CrI: 5.27-8.48), resulting in a Precautionary Reference Point (PRP, N₇₀) of 4.8 million seals and a Limit Reference Point (LRP, N₃₀) of 2.1 million seals.
• The estimated 2024 total abundance has an 80% probability of being below the PRP and is therefore considered to be in the Cautious Zone.
• Under the revised ASMS, the sustainable harvest levels that ensure an 80% probability of the population increasing above the PRP (N₇₀) in 1.5 generations (30 y) were estimated for the next five years (2025-2029). The annual Atlantic Canadian sustainable harvest levels which meet this criteria are 253,000, 222,000, and 113,000 seals assuming harvest age compositions of 95%, 90%, and 50% young of the year (YOY), respectively.
• Based on the estimated 2024 abundance, the annual Potential Biological Removal (PBR) for the NWA population is 121,800 seals. This value includes removals from all sources including reported harvest, struck and lost (killed but not recovered or reported), and bycatch in Canada and Greenland.
• There is considerable uncertainty in the age structure and level of struck and lost of the subsistence harvest in Greenland. Model results indicate that the Greenland harvest has an important impact on NWA harp seal population dynamics.
• Our harvest projections assume that ice conditions and environmental variables will remain similar to recently observed conditions. Given predicted changes in the environment, we expect a decline in vital rates which could lead to further population decline and lower sustainable harvest levels.

This Science Advisory Report is from the December 3-6, 2024, national peer review meeting on the Northwest Atlantic Harp Seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) Population Assessment and Harvest Advice for 2025-2029. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

Science Advisory Report 2025/006 (PDF, 1710 KB)

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