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Science Response 2024/001

Stock Status Update with Application of Management Procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2023 and Forecast for 2024

Context

Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) abundance in British Columbia (BC) is assessed using a statistical catch-age (SCA) model (Martell et al. 2012). In 2017, the Pacific Herring stock assessment included updates to the SCA model, a bridging analysis to support these changes (Cleary et al. 2019), and estimation of stock productivity and current stock status relative to the new limit reference point (LRP) of 0.3SB0 (Kronlund et al. 2017), where SB0 is estimated unfished spawning biomass. In 2022, upper stock reference (USR) point options were introduced for the major stock assessment regions (SARs), and in this assessment estimation of stock status relative to productive period USRs (DFO 2023a) are included. The overall structure of the SCA model has not changed since 2017.

In 2016, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) committed to renewing the current management framework to address a range of challenges facing Pacific Herring stocks and fisheries in BC. Renewal of the management framework included engaging in a management strategy evaluation (MSE) process to evaluate the performance of candidate management procedures against a range of hypotheses about future stock and fishery dynamics. As part of the MSE process, a Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) regional peer review occurred in 2018, where performance of Pacific Herring management procedures (MPs) were assessed against conservation objectives for the Strait of Georgia (SoG) and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI) SARs (DFO 2019). Steps included operating model (OM) development (Benson et al. 2022), fitting the OM to Pacific Herring stock and fishery monitoring data (OM conditioning), and closed-loop simulations of MP performance for alternative future natural mortality scenarios. In 2019, DFO initiated the MSE process for the Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), and Central Coast (CC) SARs (DFO 2020a). Updates to MP evaluations were then conducted for SoG and WCVI SARs in 2020 (DFO 2021a) and for PRD, CC, SoG, and WCVI in 2023 (DFO 2022a, 2023a).

This assessment includes new science advice on choice of USR points for all five Pacific Herring major SARs. An analysis of USR options for PRD, CC, SoG, and WCVI was completed in 2022 (DFO 2023a) and provisional USRs based on productive periods identified for each SAR was implemented in the 2022/23 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP).

Since initiation of the Pacific Herring MSE process, MP evaluations have been included in the annual stock assessment as follows:

  1. The 2018 stock assessment includes MP recommendations for the SoG and WCVI SARs (DFO 2019).
  2. The 2019 stock assessment includes MP recommendations for the HG, PRD, and CC SARs (DFO 2020b), and implements the previous years’ MP recommendations for the SoG and WCVI SARs.
  3. The 2020 stock assessment includes an update to MP recommendations for the SoG and WCVI SARs (DFO 2021a), and implements the previous years’ MP recommendations for the HG, PRD, and CC SARs.
  4. The 2021 stock assessment includes an update to MP recommendations for the PRD and CC SARs (DFO 2021b), and implements the previous years MP recommendations for the SoG and WCVI SARs.
  5. The 2022 stock assessment includes an update to MP recommendations for the PRD, CC, SoG, and WCVI SARs (DFO 2022a).

Note that MPs for HG are not updated through this process. Instead, management measures to support long-term recovery of HG herring are being developed through the HG rebuilding plan process.Footnote 1

This 2023 stock assessment includes MP recommendations for PRD, CC, SoG, and WCVI, derived in 2022 by updating herring OM conditioning (Benson et al. 2022) using the latest historic stock and fishery data from 1951 to 2021 (DFO 2022a). There are no new MP evaluations for 2023 (all probability metrics reflect the MP evaluations presented in 2022).

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Pacific Fisheries Management Branch requested that DFO Pacific Science Branch assess the status of British Columbia (BC) Pacific Herring stocks in 2023 and recommend harvest advice for 2024 as simulation-tested MPs to inform the development of the 2023/2024 IFMP, where appropriate. Estimated stock trajectories, current status of stocks for 2023, management procedure options, and harvest advice recommendations from those MPs for 2024 reflect methods of Cleary et al. (2019) and Benson et al. (2022) and, where applicable, recommendations from the aforementioned 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 MSE analyses (Section “Application of MPs and harvest options for 2024”).

This Science Response results from the regional peer review of September 22, 2023 on the Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2023 and forecast for 2024.

Science Response 2024/001 (PDF, 17,725 KB)

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