Science Response 2025/009

4X5Y Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Status Update to 2023

Science Advice

Status

• The 2024 spawning stock biomass is at 22% of the limit reference point (LRP), indicating that the stock remains in the critical zone with a very high probability.

Trends

• Landings in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 were 599 mt and 533 mt, respectively, remaining below the bycatch total allowable catch (TAC).
• The commercial and survey catch-at-age continue to show the truncation in age structure that has occurred since the 1990s. Survey biomass and age-1 abundance indices have remained low in the past three years.
• Fishing mortality shows a decline for fully-recruited ages after 1994, which is consistent with management measures implemented over the past three decades. The 2023 estimate of fishing mortality on ages 4–7 is 0.10.
• Natural mortality has increased over time for older fish (ages 5+) and appears to have stabilized at high levels in the past five years, with the latest (2023) 5-year average of natural mortality for these ages estimated at 1.59.
• The 2024 estimate of SSB is 4,905 mt. SSB is estimated to decrease from 2024 to 2025, then remain stable or show slight increases under various fishery scenarios.

Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations

• Environmental and climate change considerations affecting the productivity of the stock are unknown. Many basic ecosystem indicators and the magnitude of their effect on the abundance and distribution of various life stages of Atlantic Cod are undetermined, hindering the quantitative incorporation of ecosystem considerations into the stock assessment.

Stock Advice

• The 4X5Y Atlantic Cod stock has declined since the 1990s and remains in the critical zone. Despite decreases in fishing mortality, the productivity of the stock remains low. Few older fish have reappeared in the population and natural mortality for fish ages 5+ has stabilized at high levels. In the harvest scenarios evaluated, there is a moderately high to very high probability of biomass decreasing in each projected year compared to 2024, even in the absence of fishing.

This Science Response Report is from the regional peer review of December 11th, 2024, on the Stock Status Update of Atlantic Cod in NAFO Divisions 4X5Y.

Science Response 2025/009 (PDF, 486 KB)

Data sets:

• MARITIMES RESEARCH VESSEL SURVEYS

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