Terms of Reference

Update of the projections for Atlantic Mackerel (Subareas 3 and 4)

Science Response Process – Quebec Region

March 2, 2018
Mont-Joli, Quebec

Chairperson: Martin Castonguay

Context

The assessment of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) of subareas 3 and 4 takes place every two years. During the last stock assessment (DFO 2017), scientific advice was provided, in part, under the form of standard projections of spawning stock biomass (SSB) over a 3-year period. Both the probability of population growth and recovery out of the Critical Zone were provided under various levels of total catches (declared and undeclared), and this information was used to support the advice given to the Minister. Since the last stock assessment, DFO adds an estimate of unreported landings of 6,000 t to reported landings to calculate a total catch. The total allowable catch (TAC) for 2017 was set at 10,000 t, which corresponds to a total catch of 16,000 t.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada published a Sustainable Fisheries Framework in 2009, of which a fundamental policy outlines the methodology for applying the precautionary approach (PA). A key component of the PA policy requires that “when a stock has reached the Critical Zone, a rebuilding plan must be in place with the aim of having a high probability of the stock growing out of the Critical Zone within a reasonable timeframe”.

Objective

The meeting objective is to predict the probability of the spawning stock biomass (SSB) (a) growing out of the Critical Zone and (b) growing and (c) doubling with respect to its 2016 biomass within 3 time references, i.e. 2022 (5 years), 2027 (10 years) and 2032 (15 years) under a range of catch regimes.
The limit reference point, which delineates the critical zone, was estimated to be 103 000 t (SSB). The spawning stock biomass in 2016 was estimated to be around 40,000 t or 39% of the LRP, and was hence situated deep into the Critical Zone.

Expected Publications

• DFO Science Response

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science Branch)

References

DFO. 2017. Assessment of the Atlantic mackerel stock for the Northwest Atlantic (subareas 3 and 4) in 2016. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/034