Terms of Reference

Assessment of stock status of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn) to 2017 and advice for the 2018 and 2019 fisheries

Regional Science Peer Review – Gulf Region

March 14 - 15, 2018
Moncton, New Brunswick

Chairperson: Gérald Chaput (DFO Gulf Region)

Context

The assessment of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL; NAFO Div. 4T) is conducted on a two-year cycle. The most recent peer review meeting of the assessment of Atlantic herring in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence was conducted in March 2016 to provide advice for the 2016 and 2017 fisheries (DFO 2016; McDermid et al. 2016; Swain 2016).

In support of a request for science advice from DFO Fisheries and Aquaculture Management, DFO Gulf Science Branch will review the status to 2017 of the spring and fall spawning components of the Atlantic herring stock of the of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO Division 4T and provide advice for the 2018 and 2019 fisheries.

Objective

Assessment of the status of the spring and fall spawning components of Atlantic herring of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) including:

• Information on catches to the end of 2017, including best estimates of total removals by all fisheries.
• Key indicators of stock status and trends (commercial catch rates, acoustic survey indices, size and/or age composition, etc.).
• Evaluation of the appropriateness and results of the population model(s) for spring and fall spawning components including models that provide estimates of abundance of fall spawners for three geographic areas (north, central, south) of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence.
• If required, review reference points in the context of revised population models for both spring and fall spawner components.
• For spring spawning herring, a quantitative risk analysis of annual catch options for 2018 and 2019 ranging from 0 to 3,000 t (in increments of 500 t) relative to the following objectives:
  • Probability of an increase in spawning stock biomass (SSB) from 2017 (or the previous year?)
  • Probability of SSB in 2019 and 2020 (post-fishery 2018 and 2019) being greater than the LRP and greater than the USR.
  • Probability of SSB being greater than the LRP and greater than the USR within 10 years.
• For fall spawning herring, a quantitative risk analysis of annual catch options for 2018 and 2019 relative to the following objectives:
  • Probability of SSB in 2019 and 2020 (post-fishery 2018 and 2019) being less than or equal to the LRP.
  • Probability of SSB in 2019 and 2020 (post-fishery 2018 and 2019) being equal to or above the USR.
  • Probability of an increase in spawning stock biomass (SSB) from 2017.
• Probability of exceeding the F0.1 reference level in 2018 and 2019.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document(s)
• Proceedings

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science Branch and Ecosystems and Fisheries Management)
• Invited external experts
• Provincial governments
• Fishing industry
• Aboriginal organizations

References

DFO. 2016. Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) spring and fall spawner components of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) with advice for the 2016 and 2017 fisheries. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2016/036.

McDermid, J.L., Mallet, A., and Surette, T. 2016. Fishery performance and status indicators for the assessment of the NAFO Division 4T southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) to 2014 and 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2016/060. ix + 62 p.

Swain, D.P. 2016. Population modelling results for the assessment of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stocks in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Division 4T) to 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2016/061. x + 53 p.