Terms of Reference

Assessment of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod

Regional Advisory Meeting – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

November 2-6, 2020
Virtual meeting

Chairpersons: Krista Baker and Roanne Collins

Context

The status of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Cod was last assessed in November 2019 (DFO 2020), using a new modelling approach resulting from a 3Ps Cod Framework process in October 2019. The main objectives of the assessment were to evaluate the status of the stock, determine an appropriate limit reference point (LRP), and to provide scientific advice concerning conservation outcomes related to various fishery management options.

The current assessment is requested by the Fisheries Management Branch to provide the Minister with detailed advice on the status of the stock in order to inform management decisions for the 2021-22 fishing season.

Objectives

• Provide an oceanographic and environmental overview for the stock area. If possible, this information should be integrated into the advice.
• Determine sensitivity of model results to treatment of natural mortality (M).
• Assess and report on the current status of the 3Ps cod stock. In particular, assess current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the LRP, total biomass, exploitation rate, fishing and natural mortality, and biological characteristics (including age composition, size at age, age at maturity, and distribution). To the extent possible, describe these variables in relation to historic observations.
• Analyze recent year class strength relative to previous observations, as it relates to long‑term growth and sustainability of the stock. To the extent possible, provide information on the strengths of year-classes expected to enter the exploitable population in the next 1‑3 years.
• Provide annual projections to 2023 of SSB relative to the LRP (with 95% CIs), assuming total removals are 0, 1.0 times of the 2019-20 value, and ±10%, ±20%, ±30%, ±40%, ±50%, and ±60% of the 2019-20 value. Provide associated risk analyses.
• Identify the level of removals that provide a positive trajectory of SSB over the short to medium-term (3-5 years) with a 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 probability.
• Highlight major sources of uncertainty in the assessment.
• Report on results of tagging and the distribution of this stock in other areas (e.g., 3L/3Pn).

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Document(s)

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries Management Branches)
• French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture
• Academia
• Indigenous groups
• Non-government organizations

References

DFO. 2020. Stock Assessment of NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Cod. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2020/018.