Terms of Reference

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2021

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

January 22, 2021
Virtual meeting

Chairperson: Brooke Davis

Context

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested Science Branch to provide information and advice for February 2021 on the pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2021. Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this information.

The 2021 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecast will generally use the methodological approaches described in the previous forecast documents listed in the references. The ability to forecast Fraser River Pink salmon returns for 2021 will be limited due to the absence of a juvenile estimate from Spring 2020, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. Updated brood year escapements, juvenile abundances, recruitment, and environmental data will be used to develop the forecasts.

Forecast results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will reference the advisory framework for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts developed through the DFO Science advisory process.

Objectives

Science information and advice will be prepared on the individual return abundance forecasts for 20 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks and one Fraser River Pink Salmon stock, where stock-recruitment data are available, and for seven miscellaneous stocks where only escapement data are available.

The specific objectives of this SR process are to:

1. Compare 2017 and 2016 brood year escapements (2017 and 2018 for Harrison Sockeye), juvenile abundances, and forecasts to time series averages for Fraser Sockeye Salmon stocks; for the single Fraser Pink Salmon stock, a comparison of the 2019 brood year fry abundance to time series average will not be possible this year.
2. Forecast 2021 Fraser Sockeye Salmon pre-season abundance (returns) presented by stock and run-timing group; forecast 2021 Fraser Pink Salmon pre-season abundance presented for this single stock.
3. Forecast uncertainty presented as probability distributions (stochastic uncertainty) and also as alternative model forms used to generate forecasts (structural uncertainty).

Expected Publication

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)
• Pacific Salmon Commission
• Canada-U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty-Fraser Panel Technical Committee
• First Nations

References

Hawkshaw, M., Xu, Y., and Davis, B. 2020. Pre-season Run Size Forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2020. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. In Press.

Hawkshaw, M., Xu, Y., and Davis, B. 2020. Pre-season Run Size Forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) Salmon in 2019. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. In Press.

DFO. 2018. Pre-Season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2018/034.

DFO. 2017. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) Salmon in 2017. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2017/016.

DFO. 2016. Pre-Season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2016/021.

DFO. 2015. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) Salmon in 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/014.

DFO. 2014. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/040.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2013/145. vi + 42 p.

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p.