Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (Divs. 2J3KL)

Regional Advisory Meeting - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 23-26, 2021
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Darrell Mullowney

Context

The last full stock assessment for Northern cod was completed in March 2019 (Fisheries and Oceans Canada [DFO] 2019b). A stock status update science response was completed in April 2020 (DFO 2020). In January 2019, a Regional Peer Review Process was held to evaluate the Limit Reference Point (LRP) for Northern cod (DFO 2019a). The peer review meeting reached a consensus that the method for determining the LRP and the reference point itself remained valid.

Detailed advice on the status of the stock was requested by the Resource Management Branch to inform recommendations to the Minister for management decisions for the 2021 fishing season.

Objectives

• Consider ecosystem status where the assessed stock occurs based on an overview including relevant summaries of oceanographic conditions, biological community structure and trends, and pertinent knowledge of ecological interactions (e.g. predator, prey) and stressors (e.g. anthropogenic impacts).
• Assess the current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the LRP (Blim), total biomass, recruitment, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, and other relevant biological characteristics.
• Determine the output calculation of the Harvest Decision Rule (HDR) and a determination by Science that the HDR still applies. Will also need confirmation that none of the exceptional circumstances in the Rebuilding Plan (RP) have been triggered.
• Identify the major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.
• To assist in the development of the management measures for 2021, conduct three year projections of Spawning Biomass relative to the limit reference point (with 95% CIs) assuming total removals are (0.7, 0.85, 1.0, 1.15, and 1.3) times the 2020 value.
• DFO’s Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework indicates there is zero tolerance for preventable decline. Identify the level of removals that provide a high probability (>95%) of continued stock growth over the medium to long term (5-10 years). If possible, provide the levels of removals that provide a 0.95 probability of 0, 25, 50 and 75% growth from the 2019 estimate of spawner biomass.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Documents

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science and Fisheries Management
• Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Fisheries and Land Resources
• Industry
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Other invited experts

References

• DFO. 2019a. Evaluation of the Limit Reference Point for Northern Cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/058.
• DFO. 2019b. Stock assessment of Northern cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL) in 2019. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/050.
• DFO. 2020. 2020 Stock Status Update for Northern Cod. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. In press.
• Rebuilding plan for Atlantic Cod - NAFO Divisions 2J3KL