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Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2021 and forecast in 2022

Regional Science Response Process (SRP) – Pacific Region

September 15, 2021
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Jaclyn Cleary

Context

Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) based on five major and two minor stock assessment regions (SARs). The major SARs are Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), Central Coast (CC), Strait of Georgia (SoG), and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI); the minor SARs are Haida Gwaii Area 2W (A2W) and WCVI Area 27 (A27).

Annual assessments of Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts began in the late-1980s for all major SARs. Starting in 2006, the assessment has used an integrated statistical catch-age (SCA) model fit to commercial catch data, biological data (i.e., proportion- and weight-at-age), and a fishery-independent abundance index of herring spawn derived from egg deposition surveys (i.e., the spawn index). The SCA model estimates spawning biomass and forecasts spawning biomass for the next year (Martell et al., 2012, DFO 2018a, Cleary et al. 2019a). Since 2015, Fisheries Management quota decisions have been based on a SCA model that assumes the spawn index is an absolute index of herring biomass (i.e., q=1). The SCA model will use this parameterization in 2021, following comparisons presented in DFO (2016; Table A1) and a bridging analysis (Cleary et al. 2019; Appendix D). The 2021 stock status update will include data from 2021, and use the same SCA model as the assessments in 2017 (Cleary et al. 2019), 2018 (DFO 2019b), 2019 (DFO 2020), and 2020 (DFO 2021). Note that spawn surveys proceeded as usual in 2021 except for a surface survey in HG due to COVID-19, which would normally have a dive survey.

Management advice for Pacific Herring in SoG and WCVI for the 2018/19 fisheries was derived from a peer reviewed analysis which simulation-tested management procedures (MPs; DFO 2019a, DFO 2019b) as part of the Pacific Herring Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process. Subsequently, the first MSE cycle for the remaining major SARs was completed using methods outlined in DFO (2019a), and resulted in simulation-tested MPs for HG, PRD, and CC.

DFO Fisheries Management has requested that DFO Science provide Pacific Herring stock status updates for 2021 and harvest advice for 2022 derived from simulation-tested MPs for each major SAR. The assessment and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Response (SR) process, using methods detailed in DFO (2019a), and available peer-reviewed data, will be used to support the development of the 2020/2021 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan.

Objectives

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, a CSAS SR will be developed to:

  1. Update stock and fishery status for 2021 for all SARs.
  2. Estimate biomass, depletion, and recruitment for each major SAR.
  3. Assess stock status relative to established reference points for each major SAR.
  4. Summarize the spatial distribution of the spawn index for each major SAR (e.g., by Statistical Area).
  5. Provide harvest advice for 2021/2022 for each major SAR.
  6. Update stock status with available spawn index and biological data for each minor SAR and Area 10. Note that Area 10 (in Central Coast but outside SAR boundary) is not an official SAR.

Expected Publication

Expected Participation

References

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

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