Terms of Reference

Assessment of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod

Regional Advisory Meeting – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

November 8-10 and 12 (Monday, November 15 – held in reserve) 2021
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Brian Healey

Context

The status of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Cod was last assessed in November 2020 (DFO 2021), using a new modelling approach resulting from a 3Ps Cod Framework process in November 2019. The main objectives of the assessment were to evaluate the status of the stock, and to provide scientific advice concerning conservation outcomes related to various fishery management options.

The current assessment is requested by the Fisheries Management Branch to provide the Minister with detailed advice on the status of the stock in order to inform decisions for the 2022-23 management period.

Objectives

• Consider ecosystem status where the assessed stock occurs based on an overview including relevant summaries of oceanographic conditions, biological community structure and trends, and pertinent knowledge of ecological interactions (e.g. predator, prey) and stressors (e.g. anthropogenic impacts).
• Assess and report on the current status of the 3Ps cod stock, and identify any major sources of uncertainty. In particular, assess current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the LRP, total biomass, exploitation rate, recruitment, fishing and natural mortality, and biological characteristics (including age composition, size at age, age at maturity, and distribution). To the extent possible, describe these variables in relation to historic observations. 
• Document the probable causes for the stock’s decline for any period(s) where this has been observed.
• Identify the level of removals that provide a positive trajectory of SSB over the short term (3 years) with a 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 probability.
• Conduct annual SSB projections to 2024, assuming total removals are 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 1.75 times an assumed total catch of 1,346t.  Provide i) P(SSB>LRP) and ii) P(SSB_proj > SSB_current).

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Documents

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries Management Branches)
• French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture
• Academia
• Indigenous groups
• Non-government organizations

References

• DFO. 2021. Stock Assessment of NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod  DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2021/031.