Terms of Reference

National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC): November 2021 Biannual Meeting

National Advisory Meeting – National Capital Region

November 15-19, 2021
Virtual Meeting

Chairpersons: Garry Stenson, Véronique Lesage

Context

The National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC) holds at least one annual meeting to conduct scientific peer-review of marine mammal research and provide scientific advice. Meetings provide the opportunity for collaborative review of scientific results by DFO and external marine mammal experts. Following NMMPRC peer-review and approval, scientific results are used to provide sound scientific advice for the management and conservation of marine mammals in Canada.

Topics

Specific Terms of Reference for each topic are as follows:

Results of 2021 Northwest Atlantic grey seal pup production survey, variation in timing of reproduction, and sustainable harvest advice

Context

The Northwest Atlantic grey seal population has been assessed historically by DFO every 3-5 years using an aerial survey of pup production on breeding colonies throughout their Canadian breeding range.  The previous survey was conducted in January 2016, after which the population was estimated at 424,300 animals (95% CI=263,600 - 578,300, rounded to the nearest 100).  In January 2021, a new aerial pup production survey was conducted in the breeding areas of grey seals (Sable Island, Gulf of St. Lawrence, coastal Nova Scotia) in order to provide new estimates of population parameters and update harvest advice.

Grey seals are managed under the Objective Based Fisheries Management (OBFM) approach for Atlantic seals, which was implemented in 2003. The current management objective is to maintain an 80% probability (L20) that the population will remain above 70% (N70) of the largest population seen. Typically, the annual grey seal commercial harvest begins once approximately 50% of pups on each colony have been estimated to be weaned; this allows harvesters the opportunity to access appropriate aged-animals, as well as allowing for nursing females with pups to remain undisturbed by hunting activities. Average weaning date varies with year and colony location.

Objectives

Resource Management requests Science to provide an update on the status of this population.  Elements of the assessment should include:

• Information on the status and trend of the overall population, and the three herds generally known by sub-areas as Sable Island, coastal Nova Scotia and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  
• The maximum sustainable harvest for the next five years (2022-2027) that ensures with an 80% confidence that the population remains above N70 for each of the following scenarios for age-composition of the harvest:
• 10% age 1+/ 90% young of year (YOY)
• 5% age 1+/ 95% YOY
• 50% age 1+/ 50% YOY
• An assessment of how the proportion of newborns present, and how the proportion of animals weaned change over time at Brion Island, Hay Island, the southern Gulf islands, and southwest Nova Scotia islands.
• An assessment of the inter-annual variation in the timing of births for each sub-area

Expected Publications

• Three Research Documents
• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings

Expected Participation

• DFO (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Species at Risk, Fisheries and Harbour Management sectors)
• Academia or Academics
• Stakeholders
• Other invited experts