Terms of Reference

Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2022 and forecast in 2023

Regional Peer Review – Pacific Region

September 15, 2022
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Jaclyn Cleary

Context

Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) based on five major and two minor stock assessment regions (SARs). The major SARs are Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), Central Coast (CC), Strait of Georgia (SoG), and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI); the minor SARs are Haida Gwaii Area 2W (A2W) and WCVI Area 27 (A27).

Annual assessments of Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts began in the late-1980s for all major SARs. Starting in 2006, the assessment has used an integrated statistical catch-age (SCA) model fit to commercial catch data, biological data (i.e., proportion- and weight-at-age), and a fishery-independent abundance index of herring spawn derived from egg deposition surveys (i.e., the spawn index). The SCA model estimates spawning biomass and forecasts spawning biomass for the next year (Martell et al. 2012, DFO 2018, Cleary et al. 2019). Since 2015, Fisheries Management quota decisions have been based on a SCA model that assumes the spawn index is an absolute index of herring biomass (i.e., q=1). The SCA model will use this parameterization in 2022, following comparisons presented in DFO (2017; Table A1) and a bridging analysis (Cleary et al. 2019; Appendix D). The 2022 stock status update will include data from 2022, and use the same SCA model as the assessments in 2017 (Cleary et al. 2019), 2018 (DFO 2019a), 2019 (DFO 2020a), 2020 (DFO 2021a), and 2021 (DFO 2021b). Note that dive spawn surveys proceeded as usual in all major stock areas, and the collection and analysis of biological data was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has committed to renewing the current management framework to address a range of challenges facing Pacific Herring stocks and fisheries in British Columbia. Renewal of the management framework for Pacific Herring includes using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process to evaluate the performance of candidate Management Procedures (MPs) against hypotheses about past and future stock and fishery dynamics. The purpose of the MSE process is to identify MPs that provide acceptable outcomes related to conservation and fishery management objectives. The first MSE cycles for the SoG and WCVI management areas were completed in 2018 (Benson et al. 2022, DFO 2019b) and the MSE process was first extended to the HG, PRD, and CC management areas in the spring of 2019 (DFO 2020b).

DFO Fisheries Management has requested that DFO Science provide Pacific Herring stock status updates for 2022 and harvest advice for 2023 derived from updated simulation-tested MPs for each major SAR. The MSE process will continue to report MP performance relative to the limit reference point (LRP, 0.3 SB0; Kronlund et al. 2018) and will include new upper stock reference (USR) point options (currently under review)^{Footnote 1}. The assessment and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Response (SR) process, using methods detailed in Cleary et al. (2019), and available peer-reviewed data, will be used to support the development of the 2022/2023 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan.

Objectives

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, a CSAS SR will be developed to:

1. Update stock and fishery status for 2022 for all SARs.
2. Estimate biomass, depletion, and recruitment for each major SAR.
3. Assess stock status relative to established reference points for each major SAR.
4. Summarize the spatial distribution of the spawn index for each major SAR (e.g., by Statistical Area).
5. Provide harvest advice for 2022/2023 for each major SAR.

Update stock status with available spawn index, catch and biological data for each minor SAR and Area 10. Note that Area 10 (in Central Coast but outside SAR boundary) is not an official SAR.

Expected Publication

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO Science and Fisheries Management

References

• Benson, A.J., Cleary, J.S., Cox, S.P., Johnson, S., and Grinnell, M.H. 2022. Performance of management procedures for British Columbia Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in the presence of model uncertainty: closing the gap between precautionary fisheries theory and practice. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2022/048.
• Cleary, J.S., Hawkshaw, S., Grinnell, M.H., and Grandin, C. 2019. Status of B.C. Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in 2017 and Forecasts for 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/028. v + 285 p.
• Cox, S.P., Benson, A.J., Cleary, J.S, and Taylor, N.G. 2019. Candidate Limit Reference Points as a Basis for Choosing Among Alternative Harvest Control Rules for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/050. viii + 47 p.
• DFO 2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.
• DFO 2017. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/030.
• DFO 2018. Stock Assessment for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia in 2017 and forecast for 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2018/002.
• DFO. 2019a. Status of Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in 2018 and forecast for 2019. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2019/001.
• DFO. 2019b. Evaluation of Management Procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in the Strait of Georgia and the West Coast of Vancouver Island Management Areas of British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/001.
• DFO. 2020a. Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2019 and forecast for 2020. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2020/004.
• DFO. 2020b. Evaluation of Management Procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in Haida Gwaii, Prince Rupert District, and the Central Coast Management Areas of British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2020/003.
• DFO. 2021a. Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2020 and forecast for 2021. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2021/001.
• DFO. 2021b. Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2021 and forecast for 2022. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2021/039.
• Kronlund, A.R., Forrest, R.E., Cleary, J.S., and Grinnell, M.H. 2018. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia, Canada. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/009. ix + 125 p.
• Martell, S.J.D., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.