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Rapid status approximations for Pacific salmon derived from integrated expert assessments under Fisheries and Oceans Canada Wild Salmon Policy

Regional Peer Review - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

November 18, 2022
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Many Canadian populations of Pacific salmon are exhibiting significant declines in abundance (Grant et al. 2019; North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission [NPAFC] 2019). This has been largely linked to accelerating climate change, which will demand unprecedented resourcing to adapt our salmon management systems to this threat (Grant et al. 2019; NPAFC 2019; Grant et al. 2021). A critical step to climate change adaptation is annual tracking of salmon biodiversity to determine how it is responding to various threats and management actions. The population structure of Pacific salmon includes adaptive diversity at a range of scales that include the species, conservation unit (CU), population and deme (DFO 2005: Figure 2). The Wild Salmon Policy (WSP) identifies diversity at the scale of CUs as fundamental units that cannot be recolonized if lost (DFO 2005; Holtby and Ciruna 2007; Wade et al. 2019).

To track salmon biodiversity, a new rapid WSP status assessment approach is required to estimate annual status for all British Columbia (BC) and Yukon CUs, with applicable data. This rapid approach will build on the WSP integrated status assessment approaches that are labour intensive, taking 10-40 experts up to three days to complete (Holt et al. 2009; Holt 2009; Holt 2010; Grant et al. 2011; Grant and Pestal 2012; DFO 2015; DFO 2016; Grant et al. 2020; Brown et al. 2020). Consequently, only ~10% of the 377 Pacific Salmon CUs have been completed to date, and most have not been updated after their original assessments. The rapid approach can fill these gaps, providing more complete coverage of statuses across these CUs, and providing statuses annually, which is particularly important in this period of accelerating climate change.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Branch has requested a rapid status assessment approach to support the development of limit reference points (LRPs) for Pacific Salmon. Stock management unit-level LRPs are recommended to meet this requirement under the Fisheries Act, where status is above the LRP when 100% of the CUs in a stock management unit (SMU) are not in the Red status zone (DFO 2022). Recently, Science Branch has developed a rapid status assessment algorithm which is based on previous peer-reviewed assessment methods to be incorporated into DFO’s new Pacific Salmon Status Scanner (Scanner). The Scanner is an interactive salmon data visualization tool in development that will provide WSP statuses for CUs with applicable data. Only the rapid status assessment algorithm and not the Scanner will be captured in this peer review.

The assessment and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Response (SR) process will be used to support legislative requirements for LRP development. A core principle of the recommended algorithm is continual learning and refinement as new information becomes available. In addition to supporting LRP assessments, rapid statuses will support climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) and scenario planning during a time when many Canadian populations of Pacific Salmon are exhibiting declines in abundance (Grant et al. 2020; Grant et al. 2021; NPAFC 2019).

Subsequent CSAS regional peer reviews may be needed to combine the WSP CU rapid statuses generated by the algorithm, with expert-input, to conclude whether or not a SMU falls below their LRP to trigger Fisheries Act rebuilding plans. Peer review processes may be required for other applications, such as climate change vulnerability assessment work, or state of the salmon reporting.

Objectives

The specific objectives of this review are to:

  1. Summarize the methods, results, and conclusions of the rapid status assessment approach. This has three key components:
    • a performance evaluation of candidate rapid status algorithms against existing CSAS reviewed WSP integrated statuses
    • an evaluation of the application of the rapid status algorithm to years and CUs that currently do not have WSP integrated statuses completed
    • provide a measure of confidence in rapid status results

  2. Document the review processes that have occurred to develop the rapid status algorithm.

  3. Provide advice on next steps and future work.

Expected Publications

Expected Participation

References

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

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