Terms of Reference

Application of high-resolution hydrodynamic prediction systems for forecasting of ocean conditions in Canadian ports and approaches

National Peer Review – National Capital Region

March 14-16 and 21-23, 2023
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: David Greenberg

Context

The “improving drift prediction and near-shore modelling” sub-initiative of the Ocean Protection Plan (OPP) aims to enhance Government of Canada ocean modelling activities. Under this sub-initiative the Ocean and Climate Change Science Program (OCCSP) has developed six high-resolution Port Ocean Prediction Systems (POPS) intended for forecasting currents, water levels and water properties for specified ports and approaches on Canada’s East and West coasts:

• Kitimat fjord (B.C.)
• Port of Vancouver including both Vancouver Harbour and lower Fraser River (B.C.)
• Strait of Canso Port (N.S.)
• Port of Saint John (N.B.)
• St. Lawrence River (Qc) from the lower St. Lawrence Estuary at Pointe-des-Monts to Trois-Rivières upstream, including also the Saguenay Fjord

Each POPS includes a domain-specific hydrodynamic ocean model and the related system used to run the model in forecasting mode and to connect and sequence automated data inputs and dependencies.

POPS outputs are designed to support delivery of operational services:

• Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS) dynamic e-navigation, and
• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) emergency response to environmental and maritime disasters (e.g., oil spills).

For CHS and ECCC to consider use of the POPS and their outputs, OCCSP is seeking peer-reviewed advice through the Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) on scientific validity, stability and robustness within environmental conditions encountered during the period of testing, and fitness for purpose of the POPS for the proposed client applications.

Objectives

The objective of the CSAS meeting is to review the six high-resolution POPS, their ability to represent real-world physical ocean conditions and variability, their stability and robustness under environmental conditions encountered during the period of testing, and appropriateness of the outputs for their intended uses.

To achieve these objectives the peer review meeting will:

• Review the overall configuration and design (technical aspects) of the POPS;
• Validate existing performance evaluations for both hindcast (scientific validation) and forecast (verification) modes in accordance with pre-established evaluation plan and procedures; and
• Provide advice on scientific validity and applicability of the POPS for delivery of operational services on electronic navigation and on oil spill trajectory forecasts, including documentation of context and considerations for further client implementation in operation.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document
• Proceedings

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada
• Environment and Climate Change Canada
• Academia
• International experts