Terms of Reference

New Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) for the North Atlantic Right Whale

National Peer Review - National Capital Region

Febrary 19-23 and April 30 - May 2, 2024

Montreal, QC

Chairpersons: Sean MacConnachie and Véronique Lesage

Context

After the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assesses an aquatic species as Threatened, Endangered or Extirpated, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) undertakes a number of actions required to support implementation of the Species at Risk Act (SARA). Many of these actions require scientific information on the current status of the species, threats to its survival and recovery, and the feasibility of recovery. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) that is conducted shortly after the COSEWIC assessment. This timing allows for consideration of peer-reviewed scientific analyses into SARA processes, including recovery planning.

The North Atlantic and North Pacific right whales were originally assessed as a single species (the right whale) by COSEWIC, and re-assessed as endangered in 1980, 1985 and 1990. In 2003, COSEWIC separated the right whale into two species and the NARW was assessed as endangered. This status was re-confirmed in 2013.

The NARW was listed as endangered on Schedule 1 of SARA in 2005. An RPA was conducted in 2007 to support recovery planning. A recovery strategy was finalized and published on the Species at Risk Public Registry in 2009. The recovery strategy identified critical habitat in Roseway and Grand Manan basins. A minor amendment to the recovery strategy to include a more detailed description of existing critical habitat was made in 2014. Identified critical habitat was legally protected from destruction in 2017. An action plan for the species was finalized and published on the Species at Risk Public Registry in 2021.

As the population abundance continues to decline and there have been substantial advancements in our knowledge on NARW in Canadian waters since the 2007 RPA, DFO Science has been asked by the Species at Risk Program to undertake a new RPA based on the national RPA Guidance (DFO 2007, DFO 2014a). The advice in the RPA may be used to inform recovery documents, and to support decision making with regards to the issuance of permits or agreements, and the formulation of exemptions and related conditions, as per sections 73, 74, 75, 77, 78 and 83(4) of SARA. The advice in the RPA may also be used to prepare for the reporting requirements of SARA s.55 and support implementation of effective management measures for the species. The advice generated via this process will update and/or consolidate any existing advice regarding NARW.

This review will proceed in two parts: Part 1 is planned for February 19-23, 2024 and will address all elements as described below with the exception of Important Habitat and the RPA itself, which will be delivered in a separate peer-review meeting (Part 2) planned for April 30 to May 2, 2024.

Objective

The national RPA Guidance includes 22 elements that are to be addressed when undertaking an RPA, as listed below (DFO 2014a).

Biology, Abundance, Distribution and Life History Parameters

Element 1: Summarize the biology of NARW.

Element 2: Evaluate the recent species trajectory for abundance, distribution and number of NARW populations.

Element 3: Estimate the current or recent life-history parameters for NARW.

Habitat and Residence Requirements

Element 4: Describe the habitat properties that NARW needs for successful completion of all life-history stages. Describe the function(s), feature(s), and attribute(s) of the habitat, and quantify by how much the biological function(s) that specific habitat feature(s) provides varies with the state or amount of habitat, including carrying capacity limits, if any.

Element 5: Provide information on the spatial extent of the areas in NARW distribution that are likely to have these habitat properties.

Element 6: Quantify the presence and extent of spatial configuration constraints, if any, such as connectivity, barriers to access, etc.

Element 7: Evaluate to what extent the concept of residence applies to NARW, and if so, describe the species’ residence.

Threats and Limiting Factors to the Survival and Recovery of NARW

Element 8: Assess and prioritize the threats to the survival and recovery of NARW.

Element 9: Identify the activities most likely to threaten (i.e., damage or destroy) the habitat properties identified in elements 4-5 and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.

Element 10: Assess any natural factors that will limit the survival and recovery of NARW.

Element 11: Discuss the potential ecological impacts of the threats identified in element 8 to the target species and other co-occurring species. List the possible benefits and disadvantages to the target species and other co-occurring species that may occur if the threats are abated. Identify existing monitoring efforts for the target species and other co-occurring species associated with each of the threats, and identify any knowledge gaps.

Recovery Targets

Element 12: Propose candidate abundance and distribution target(s) for recovery.

Element 13: Project expected population trajectories over a scientifically reasonable time frame (minimum of 10 years), and trajectories over time to the potential recovery target(s), given current NARW population dynamics parameters.

Element 14: Provide advice on the degree to which supply of suitable habitat meets the demands of the species both at present and when NARW reaches the potential recovery target(s) identified in element 12.

Element 15: Assess the probability that the potential recovery target(s) can be achieved under current rates of population dynamics parameters, and how that probability would vary with different mortality (especially lower) and productivity (especially higher) parameters.

Scenarios for Mitigation of Threats and Alternatives to Activities

Element 16: Develop an inventory of feasible mitigation measures and reasonable alternatives to the activities that are threats to NARW and its habitat (as identified in elements 8 and 10).

Element 17: Develop an inventory of activities that could increase the productivity or survivorship parameters (as identified in elements 3 and 15).

Element 18: If current habitat supply may be insufficient to achieve recovery targets (see element 14), provide advice on the feasibility of restoring the habitat to higher values. Advice must be provided in the context of all available options for achieving abundance and distribution targets.

Element 19: Estimate the reduction in mortality rate expected by each of the mitigation measures or alternatives in element 16 and the increase in productivity or survivorship associated with each measure in element 17.

Element 20: Project expected population trajectory (and uncertainties) over a scientifically reasonable time frame and to the time of reaching recovery targets, given mortality rates and productivities associated with the specific measures identified for exploration in element 19. Include those that provide as high a probability of survivorship and recovery as possible for biologically realistic parameter values.

Element 21: Recommend parameter values for population productivity and starting mortality rates and, where necessary, specialized features of population models that would be required to allow exploration of additional scenarios as part of the assessment of economic, social, and cultural impacts in support of the listing process.

Allowable Harm Assessment

Element 22: Evaluate maximum human-induced mortality and habitat destruction that NARW can sustain without jeopardizing its survival or recovery.

Given that an RPA was undertaken for NARW in 2007, and there have been recent publications fully addressing some of these elements, the standard RPA template does not need to be addressed in its entirety at this time. Therefore, the objectives are to provide up-to-date information and associated uncertainties to address elements 2, 4-10, 12, 14, and 22 of the RPA guidance document (DFO 2014a). Certain deviations from the RPA Guidance will be made when addressing these elements, notably:

Elements 4 and 5: will include a description of the habitat areas important for the survival or recovery of NARWs. To the extent possible, given the available data, this should include geographic areas as well as the identification of the features and attributes of those areas and the biological functions that they support. A function is a life-cycle process of NARW (for example, nursing, feeding, migration, socialization/communications). Each life-cycle function is supported by one or more features, which are the essential biophysical components of the habitat. Features are composed of one or more attributes. Attributes are measurable characteristics of a feature and they provide the greatest level of detail about the habitat. The linkage between each feature and the function(s) they support should be identified.

Element 8: As noted in the RPA guidance, this element should be addressed using the 2014 guidance on assessing threats (DFO 2014b). The Species at Risk Program has also requested that climate change be included in the threat assessment table, contrary to the DFO (2014b) guidance.

Element 9: Identify the activities most likely to threaten (i.e., damage or destroy) the habitat properties identified in elements 4-5 (i.e., features and attributes) and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.

The remaining elements will not be peer-reviewed explicitly during this RPA exercise, although the relevant information will be summarized and presented in the RPA document. For some elements (i.e. Elements 1, 3, 11, 13, 15-17, 19-20), sufficient and up-to-date information already exists in the scientific literature, in which case a brief description of the best available sources to obtain such information will be included in the RPA. Other elements (Elements 18 and 21) are simply not required for NARW recovery planning, and will not be addressed.

Expected Publication

• Research Document

Expected Participation

• DFO (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Species at Risk sectors, Ecosystems and Fisheries Management)
• Academia or Academics Stakeholders
• Other invited experts

References

• DFO, 2007. Revised Protocol for Conducting Recovery Potential Assessments. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2007/039.
• DFO, 2014a. Guidance for the Completion of Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) for Aquatic Species at Risk.
• DFO. 2014b. Guidance on Assessing Threats, Ecological Risk and Ecological Impacts for Species at Risk. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2014/013. (Erratum: June 2016).