Terms of Reference

Science Advice to Support the Rebuilding Plan for Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO Division 4T-4Vn (November-April)

Regional Peer Review – Gulf Region

February 22-23, 2024

Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Rémi Sonier

Context

Under the recently modernized Fisheries Act, the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is required to develop and implement rebuilding plans for prescribed major stocks listed in regulation that decline to or below their limit reference point (LRP), taking into account the biology of the fish and the environmental conditions affecting the stock. Updated Departmental guidance (DFO 2022) was also recently provided to support the development of rebuilding plans under DFO’s policy, “A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach” (PA policy). Science advice was requested by Fisheries and Harbour Management to support development of the rebuilding plan for the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) 4T-4Vn November-April) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). This advice will be used to help meet the requirements of the legislation for prescribed major fish stocks, including the regulation defining the necessary contents of rebuilding plans required under the Act. It will also be used to meet the requirements of rebuilding plans for stocks managed under the PA policy.

Objectives

1. Rebuilding plan section: Stock Status and Stock Trends
• Describe stock status trends with respect to reference points.
• The LRP will be revised as the current LRP has been identified to be inadequate to prevent serious harm to the stock as it is currently below the Allee threshold (Swain et al. 2019) and due to model changes.
2. Rebuilding plan section: Probable Causes of the Stock’s Decline
• Provide an overview of probable factors that have led to the decline of the species and/or those that may affect rebuilding.
• Identify the relative contribution of the probable causes to the decline, or those affecting or preventing rebuilding.
• Identify whether habitat loss or degradation is likely to have contributed to the stock’s decline.
3. Rebuilding plan section: Measurable Objectives Aimed at Rebuilding the Stock
3a. Rebuilding Target and Timeline
• Provide advice on candidate rebuilding targets for the stock, taking into account biology and the environmental conditions affecting the stock, and the desired probability of the stock being above the LRP (to be provided by fisheries management, when applicable) when the stock has achieved the rebuilding target.
• Calculate, the time to rebuild to the rebuilding target in the absence of all fishing (Tmin). If this is not possible, provide an estimate of an alternative such as generation time.
3b. Additional Measurable Objectives and Timelines
• Provide advice on other measurable stock conservation objectives.
4. Rebuilding plan section: Management Measures Aimed at Achieving the Objectives
• Assess the extent of spatial-temporal overlap between sGSL cod and other commercially harvested species (including Redfish) to minimize bycatch.
• Determine the impact of increasing the legal size (above 43 cm) of cod caught on current population trends (size at ages 5-8 and 9+).
• Provide estimates of cod bycatch in a future mobile-gear redfish fishery based on 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, and 40,000 tonnes (t) Total allowable catch (TAC), and determine the impact on spawning stock biomass (SSB).
• Model the level of natural mortality and recruitment necessary to halt/reverse the decline.
5. Rebuilding plan section: Methods to Track Progress Toward Achieving Objectives
• Advise on how to measure progress (setting performance metrics) against the objectives to achieve the target, particularly those related to stock status.
6. Rebuilding plan section: Periodic Review of the Rebuilding Plan
• Advise on frequency of monitoring and assessment activities, including interim updates.
• Advise on exceptional circumstances under which it may be desirable to invoke a sooner-than-planned review of the rebuilding plan.

Expected Publications

• Research Document
• Science Advisory Report

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries and Harbour Management)
• Provincial governments
• Fishing industry experts
• Indigenous communities/organizations
• External experts

References

• DFO 2022. Guidelines for writing rebuilding plans per the Fish Stocks Provisions and A Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach. Updated on 2022-06-07.
• Swain, D.P., Ricard, D., Rolland, N., and Aubry, É. 2019. Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) stock of NAFO Div. 4T and 4Vn (November to April), March 2019. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/038. iv + 105 p.