Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod in 2J3KL

Regional Peer Review - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 18-21, 2024

St. John's, NL

Chairperson: Karen Dwyer

Context

The Resource Management sector of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) has requested detailed advice on the status of the Northern cod stock to inform recommendations to the Minister for management decisions for the 2024 fishing season.

The last full stock assessment for Northern cod was completed in March 2021 (DFO 2022). In October 2023, a Framework meeting for Northern cod was held to review and implement revisions to the assessment approach for this stock. The peer review meeting resulted in an updated assessment model and Limit Reference Point (LRP) for Northern cod. In 2023, it was determined that there is no conversion factor required for Atlantic cod.

Objectives

Provide advice on:

• Stock status and trends, taking into account assumptions regarding stock structure and distribution. Include the historical and recent trajectory of both stock and fishing indicators (e.g., spawning stock biomass [SSB] relative to the LRP (40% BMSY), total biomass, recruitment, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, other relevant biological characteristics).
• Environmental and climate change considerations affecting the stock including relevant summaries of oceanographic conditions, biological community structure and trends, and pertinent knowledge of ecological interactions (e.g., predator, prey) and stressors (e.g., anthropogenic impacts).

Evaluate or provide estimates of:

• Three-year projections of SSB, in relation to the LRP (with 95% CIs) assuming total removals are (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2) times the 2023 estimated value.
• The level of removals that provide estimates of growth of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% from the current SSB with a neutral to high probability (50%, 75%, and 95%) over the short-term (3 years). If possible, identify these levels of removals for the medium- to long-term (5 years).
• Major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.
• Spawning times and locations throughout the entire stock area.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Resource Management sectors)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Fishing Industry
• Non-Government Organizations

References

• DFO. 2022. Stock assessment of Northern cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL) in 2021. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2022/041.