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Update of the 2019 Bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) Stock Assessment for British Columbia in 2024

Regional Peer Review - Pacific Region

March 28, 2024

Virtual meeting

Chairperson: Jessica Finney

Context

Bocaccio Rockfish (BOR) was assessed in 2019 (DFO 2020; Starr and Haigh 2022), with an update in 2021 (DFO 2022). The results of these stock assessments showed that the coastwide BOR stock in British Columbia (BC) experienced a nearly continuous decline from the start of the population reconstruction in 1935, interrupted only by a relatively level plateau spanning the years 1970–86 due to recruitment events in 1969, 1976, and 1978. However, the decline continued from 1987 onwards until a very large recruitment event occurred in 2016, which was estimated in 2019 to be 44 times the long-term average recruitment. The 2021 update estimated that there was a 99% probability that the female spawning biomass exceeded the limit reference point (LRP) at the beginning of 2022.

On June 21, 2019, Bill C-68 received Royal Assent resulting in amendments to the Fisheries Act, which included the Fish Stocks Provisions (FSP) and the authority to create regulations regarding the requirements for rebuilding plans for stocks prescribed in regulation that are below their LRP. In January 2021, Bocaccio was included on the first batch prescribed in the FSP and is subject to the regulatory requirements.

Because of the demonstrated capacity of the synoptic surveys to monitor Bocaccio, it was considered feasible to check the progress of the rebuild through an update of the previous stock assessments once the 2022 and 2023 information from the synoptic surveys became available. It is likely that the 2016 cohort will be identifiable from the length frequency data in the surveys, given the large size of this cohort. It is also possible that additional recruitment after 2016 might also be identifiable in these data.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested that Science Branch provide advice regarding the assessment of this stock relative to reference points that are consistent with the DFO’s Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (PA; DFO 2009), including the implications of various harvest strategies on expected stock status.

This assessment, and the advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Response (SR) process, will be used to inform fisheries management of changes in stock abundance and to determine if current harvest levels are consistent with the DFO Precautionary Approach, the current rebuilding plan for Bocaccio and any new regulatory rebuilding requirements under the FSPs.

Objectives

The specific objectives of this review are to:

  1. Assess the current status of the coastwide Bocaccio stock in BC waters relative to the reference points used in the 2019 and 2021 stock assessments;
  2. Using probabilistic decision tables, evaluate the consequences of a range of harvest policies, including a no harvest policy, on projected biomass (and exploitation rate) relative to the reference points out to 10 years;
  3. If stock status is estimated to be below the LRP, provide guidance to be used by a management rebuilding plan under the PA framework for Bocaccio, to satisfy recent legislation (Fisheries Act). Specifically, provide probabilistic decision tables that demonstrate a high probability of the stock growing out of the Critical Zone (i.e., above the LRP) within a reasonable timeframe (usually 1.5-2 generations); and
  4. Describe sources of uncertainty related to the model (e.g., model parameter estimates, assumptions regarding catch, productivity, carrying capacity, and population status).

Expected Publications

Expected Participation

References

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

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