Terms of Reference

Development of a Precautionary Approach Framework for Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Shrimp Fishing Areas 4-7, Eastern Assessment Zone, and Western Assessment Zone

Zonal Peer Review - Newfoundland and Labrador Region, Arctic Region

December 9-13, 2024

St. John's, NL

Chairpersons: Kevin J. Hedges and Mark R. Simpson

Context

It is recognized that Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) are distributed broadly over the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, including Shrimp Fishing Areas (SFAs) 4–7, Eastern Assessment Zone (EAZ) and Western Assessment Zone (WAZ), and that these areas are connected through larval dispersal. For each SFA and the assessment zone, stock advice has been based on qualitative evaluations of biomass indices in relation to historic levels and provided in the context of the Precautionary Approach (PA) framework (DFO 2023, 2024). However, the biological population is recognized to be larger than the management scale. To align the assessment with the biological population and facilitate incorporation of environmental and ecosystem variables into the assessment, a population model is needed. Development of a population assessment model for Northern Shrimp will facilitate provision of risk-based science advice, allowing fisheries managers to consider projected changes in stock abundance and the potential impacts of various management measures in the decision-making process.

For this reason, a multi-regional (Arctic and Newfoundland & Labrador regions) PA Framework meeting is required to peer-review a population model for Northern Shrimp, incorporating information from the species’ broader geographic range within current management areas of the EAZ, WAZ, and SFAs 4-7.

A population assessment model and revised limit reference points (LRPs) will inform future work to update the PA Frameworks in place for Northern Shrimp in SFAs 4-7, EAZ, and WAZ, including harvest decision rules and upper stock reference points (USRs).

Objectives

The key objectives of this meeting are to review the proposed model and define LRPs, consistent with the PA for Northern Shrimp in SFA 4-7, the EAZ, and the WAZ.

Specifically, the following objectives have been set:

• Provide a summary of the shrimp population structure (i.e., bioregions) for use in the new proposed shrimp population model;
• Review new indices used in the proposed population model;
• Review scientific and statistical assumptions of the proposed model; and,
• Update (LRP) and recommend (e.g., USR) revised reference points for bioregions, as appropriate.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document

Expected Participation

The meeting will be highly technical in nature. Consistent with the participation guidelines for Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) processes, the discussions and review will require participants that are familiar with a broad range of quantitative assessment and modeling techniques. To contribute materials and analyses and to assist in the Framework review, participation is expected from:

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries Resource Management)
• Government of Newfoundland and Labrador
• Government of Nunavut
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Fishing Industry
• Non-government organizations
• Co-management organizations

References

• DFO. 2023. Assessment of Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) and Striped Shrimp (Pandalus montagui) in the Eastern and Western Assessment Zones, February 2023. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2023/013.
• DFO. 2024. Shrimp Fishing Areas (SFA) 4-6 Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) Stock Assessment in 2023. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2024/061.