Terms of Reference

Seasonal Distribution, Density and Abundance of At-Risk Cetacean Species in the Southern Salish Sea and on Swiftsure Bank

Regional Peer Review - Pacific Region

February 25-27, 2025

Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Katherine Bannar-Martin

Context

The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) recommended that the Governor in Council develop an Offset Program in response to the increased underwater noise and strike risk posed to species at risk by marine shipping related to the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) (NEB, 2019). In particular, Recommendation 6 (d) asked for the identification of specific foraging, congregation and migration areas of Federally listed marine species at risk and consideration of mitigations in those areas (including Swiftsure Bank). To address this recommendation, regular year-round boat-based surveys documenting cetacean presence in the southern Salish Sea and on Swiftsure Bank were initiated in 2020. The goal of these surveys was to collect seasonal abundance, density and distribution data using a systematic line-transect survey design.

Marine shipping activities have the potential to result in adverse physical and acoustic effects on at-risk cetaceans. Spatially explicit estimates of density and habitat use could inform environmental impact assessments and support future major project decision-making. Advice provided would be of interest to other sectors and regions involved in cetacean species management and species at risk management.

Ecosystem Management Branch has requested that Science Branch provide an assessment of the density and distribution of at-risk cetacean species in the TMX marine shipping area.

The assessment and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Regional Peer Review will inform adaptive management strategies as per the recommendations of the CER and be used to inform a subsequent ship strike risk assessment.

Objectives

The following working paper will be reviewed and provide the basis for discussion and advice on the specific objectives outlined below.

McMillan, C.J., Keppel, E.A., Spaven, L.D., and Doniol-Valcroze, T. Seasonal spatial density models for at-risk cetacean species in the southern Salish Sea and Swiftsure Bank. 2025. CSAP Working Paper 1466.

The specific objectives of this review are to:

1. Model the seasonal distribution of at-risk cetacean species to estimate their density and abundance in the Canadian portions of the TMX marine shipping area; and
2. Identify the sources of uncertainty and variability in the assessment.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)
• Transport Canada
• Provincial/Territorial jurisdictions/Wildlife Management Boards
• Academia
• Indigenous communities/organizations
• Industry
• Other invited experts

References

• National Energy Board (NEB). 2019. Application for the Trans Mountain Expansion Project, National Energy Board reconsideration of aspects of its OH-001-2014 Report as directed by Order in Council P.C. 2018-1177, MH-052-2018.