Terms of Reference

Eastern Canada-West Greenland Bowhead Whale Population Abundance and Limit Reference Points

Regional Peer Review - Arctic Region

January 27, 2025

Virtual

Chairperson: Marianne Marcoux

Context

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Sustainable Fisheries Framework (SFF) requires the development of Limit Reference Points (LRP) for key regional fisheries. DFO Science Advice is requested concerning the LRP for the Eastern Canada-West Greenland (EC-WG) Bowhead population. The current SFF workplan, developed jointly by regional Fisheries Management and Science sectors, indicated that the LRP development will be completed by the end fiscal year 2024-2025. Aerial surveys are unable to cover the vast geographic range of EC-WG Bowhead whales in Canada, and DFO Science Advice on DFO’s Precautionary Approach reference points for this population have not yet been approved.

The most recent management advice for the EC-WG stock originates from aerial surveys conducted in 2013 indicated that the population had increased since the end of commercial whaling (DFO 2015, Biddlecombe et al. 2023). The 2013 aerial survey produced a partial population abundance estimate of 6,446 (CV = 26%) and results suggested that the population can support a Potential Biological Removal (PBR) of 52 whales annually (Koski and Ferguson 2012, DFO 2015). More recent literature includes updated abundance estimates developed from genetic mark-recapture data (Frasier et al. 2020), and a proposed precautionary management approach for EC-WG bowheads (Ferguson et al. 2021).

Objectives

1. Review the following peer-reviewed publications on Eastern Canada West Greenland bowhead whale population:
1. Biddlecombe, B.A., Ferguson, S.H., Heide-Jørgensen, M.P., Gillis, D.M., and Watt, C.A. 2023. Estimating abundance of Eastern Canada-West Greenland bowhead whales using genetic mark-recapture analyses. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 45: e02524.
2. Biddlecombe, B.A., Heide-Jørgensen, M., Ferguson, S.H., Gillis, D., and Watt, C. (In review). Combining multiple data sources to model population dynamics of Eastern Canada-West Greenland Bowhead Whales. Submitted to J. Environ. Manage.^{Footnote 1}
3. Ferguson, S.H., Higdon, J.W., Hall, P.A., Hansen, R., and Doniol-Valcroze, T. 2021. Developing a Precautionary Management Approach for the Eastern Canada-West Greenland Population of Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus). Front. Mar. Sci. 8: 709989.
4. Frasier, T.R., Petersen, S.D., Postma, L., Johnson, L., Heide-Jørgensen, M.P., and Ferguson, S.H. 2020. Abundance estimation from genetic mark-recapture data when not all sites are sampled: An example with the bowhead whale. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 22: e00903.
2. Provide recommendations and conclusions related to the development of Limit Reference Points and a sustainable management approach.

Expected Publications

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Resource Management sectors)
• Academia
• Other invited experts

References

• Biddlecombe, B.A., Ferguson, S.H., Heide-Jørgensen, M.P., Gillis, D.M. and Watt, C.A. 2023. Estimating abundance of Eastern Canada-West Greenland bowhead whales using genetic mark-recapture analyses. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 45: p.e02524.
• DFO. 2015. Updated abundance estimate and harvest advice for the Eastern Canada-West Greenland bowhead whale population. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2015/052.
• Frasier, T.R., Petersen, S.D., Postma, L., Johnson, L., Heide-Jørgensen, M.P. and Ferguson, S.H. 2020. Abundance estimation from genetic mark-recapture data when not all sites are sampled: an example with the bowhead whale. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 22: e00903.
• Ferguson, S.H., Higdon, J.W., Hall, P.A., Hansen, R.G., and Doniol-Valcroze, T. 2021. Developing a Precautionary Management Approach for the Eastern Canada-West Greenland Population of Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus). Front. Mar. Sci. 8: 709989.
• Koski, W.R. and Ferguson, S.H. 2012. Review of Methods for Eastern Canada-Western Greenland Bowhead Whale (Balaena mysticetus) Population Abundance Estimation. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/017. iv + 23 p.