Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod in 2J3KL

Regional Peer Review - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 24-27, 2025

St. John's, NL

Chairperson: Darrell Mullowney

Context

The Resource Management sector of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) has requested detailed advice on the status of the Northern cod stock to inform recommendations to the Minister for management decisions for the 2025 fishing season. This stock is prescribed under section 6 of the Fisheries Act.

This assessment will provide the latest stock status information and harvest advice. The last full stock assessment for Northern cod was completed in March 2024 (DFO 2024a), using the updated assessment model and Limit Reference Point (LRP) defined at the October 2023 Framework process (DFO 2024b).

Objectives

Provide advice on:

• Stock status and trends, taking into account assumptions regarding stock structure and distribution. Include the historical and recent trajectory of both stock and fishing indicators (e.g., spawning stock biomass [SSB] relative to the LRP [40% BMSY], total biomass, recruitment, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, other relevant biological characteristics).
• Ecosystem and climate change considerations affecting the stock including relevant summaries of oceanographic conditions, biological community structure and trends, and pertinent knowledge of ecological interactions (e.g., predator, prey) and stressors (e.g., anthropogenic impacts).
• One, two, and three-year projections of SSB, in relation to the LRP (with 95% CIs) assuming total removals are (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2) times the 2024 authorized removals.
• The level of removals that enable growth from the current SSB with a high probability (>75%) over the short-term (3 years) and, if possible, medium- to long-term (5 years).
• Major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Resource Management sectors)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture
• Indigenous Groups
• Academia
• Fishing Industry
• Non-Government Organizations

References

• DFO. 2024a. NAFO Divisions 2J3KL Northern Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Assessment to 2024. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2024/049.
• DFO. 2024b. Northern (2J3KL) Atlantic Cod Assessment Framework. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2024/046.