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Population Assessment and Advice on Beluga Harvest in Eastern Hudson Bay and James Bay

Regional Peer Review - Quebec Region

February 10-12, 2025

Montreal, QC

Chairperson: Véronique Lesage

Context

Beluga hunting is very important for Nunavik communities both from a cultural point of view and in terms of community food security. Nunavik hunters harvest belugas from at least four stocks that make up the Hudson Bay-Strait complex: Belcher Islands-Eastern Hudson Bay (BEL-EHB), Western Hudson Bay (WHB), Ungava Bay (UNG) and James Bay (JAM). The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has identified eight recognized designatable units (DUs) of beluga in Canada, including the Eastern Hudson Bay (Threatened) and the Ungava Bay (Endangered).

Harvesting of BEL-EHB beluga by Nunavik communities is managed under a multi-year management plan developed by the Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board (NMRWB) and the Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board (EMRWB), and approved by the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans. The current 5-year management plan (2021-2026) objective is to ensure a 50% or greater probability that the stock will remain at or above 3,400 EHB beluga after five years. The plan intends to meet this objective through a combination of non-quota limitations (regional and seasonal closures) and quota limitations in the Eastern Hudson Bay management zone.

Management of beluga in Nunavik relies on the estimation of abundance of beluga in their summering habitat, and on an understanding of stock composition of the harvest, which varies both seasonally and spatially. Since 1985, eight aerial surveys have been carried out to estimate the abundance of the BEL-EHB stock, with an interval of approximately 5 years between each survey. Last surveyed in summer 2021, the resulting abundance estimate is the lowest in the time series, and has a major influence on the population trend estimated by the population dynamics model for this stock. The 3,400 threshold in the management plan was established based on the most recent Science Advice available when the management plan was developed (DFO, 2020). At that time, the EHB beluga stock was estimated to be slightly increasing or stable with an abundance of 3,400 in 2016. However, new correction factors (availability and perception bias) for surface abundance estimates of beluga from aerial surveys have been used in the most recent Science Advice (DFO 2022), which increased all abundance estimates in the time series. The new estimate from the 2021 aerial survey was also included in the 2022 Science Advice. In addition, a genetic re-analysis highlighted a newly identified population (BEL) in the Belcher Islands area, which cannot be distinguished from EHB beluga during summer aerial surveys. As a result, the advice was provided for the combined BEL-EHB stock. The new corrections factors for visual aerial surveys applied to the time series, the 2021 survey abundance estimate and the proportion of BEL-EHB beluga in the harvest were incorporated in a population model. This model estimated that the BEL-EHB stock has been declining at a rate of 2.5 to 3% per year since 2015. The current management plan objective is therefore obsolete and no longer aligned with our updated understanding of the BEL-EHB stock dynamics. New management objectives will have to be established as part of the renewal of the management plan set to expire in January 2026.

In light of these considerations, the NMRWB requested that the next BEL-EHB aerial survey, originally scheduled in summer 2026, be urgently brought forward to validate the trend in the BEL-EHB stock abundance. A new survey of BEL-EHB and JB beluga was conducted in summer 2024. In addition, a new integrated population model has been developed, and will be reviewed in December 2024. This new model optimizes the use of available information from sampled beluga, increases the consistency of the methods used to model marine mammal stocks nationally, and integrates environmental stochasticity as a factor influencing population dynamics.

New data gathered and methods developed will provide partners with a new Science Advisory Report to support their management decisions, and will also be used as part of an ongoing Species at Risk Act regulatory process, including the listing of the Eastern Hudson Bay beluga whale population as a species at risk.

DFO's Fisheries Management Branch has asked the Science Branch to conduct an assessment of the status of the Eastern Hudson Bay beluga stock, and to provide an advisory report on the maximum level of harvest in order to maintain the stock at a stable level or increase it to different target levels.

Objectives

The specific objectives of this regional peer review process are to:

  1. Update the season and area-specific Nunavik beluga hunt composition using an accepted genetic approach.
  2. Review the 2024 aerial survey methods and results, and estimate the abundance and trend of the BEL-EHB and JB stocks to be used for the following objectives.
  3. Estimate the maximum number of BEL-EHB beluga that can be harvested to respect the current management plan of ensuring a 50% probability that the stock will reach or surpass 3,400 animals in a) the next five years, and b) the next ten years.
  4. Provide harvest levels for BEL-EHB beluga that would result in a 50 to 95% probability of the stock a) remaining stable, b) reaching a 1% growth, c) reaching the Lower Reference Level (i.e., 24% of carrying capacity) and d) reaching the Precautionary Reference Level (48% of carrying capacity) over 5, 10 and 25 years.
  5. Project the demographic trend of the BEL-EHB stock over the next 3 generations (i.e., 86 years), using a) harvest levels recorded under the current management plan (2021-2024), or b) various percentages of these values as a baseline for future harvests.
  6. Assess the impact of various management measures, such as seasonal and zonal closures, on the percentage of BEL-EHB beluga harvested by Nunavik communities and Sanikiluaq.
  7. Provide Potential Biological Removal (PBR) levels for BEL-EHB and JB.

Expected Publications

Expected Participation

References

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

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