2012 Economic Outlook Summary

The following table summarizes the general trends anticipated in the average landed price for Canadian snow crab, lobster, shrimp and Atlantic cod for the 2012 fishing season. Estimates were developed using statistical modelling of factors influencing the landed price received by Canadian fishers (Table 4). The "Landed Quantities," "Exchange Rates" and "Economic Growth" columns provide the prospects for each variable, all things otherwise being equal. The expected combined effect is presented in the "Total" column. The final column to the right presents the variation of wholesale prices in the US market since the beginning of 2012 (Table 3).

As shown in Table 1, preliminary forecasts generated by the model are clearly on par with the trends observed in the American market price. The following is a summary description of each species specific outlook:

• Snow crab: Increased landings from Alaska and a slight expected depreciation of the Japanese yen will exert downward pressure on the price for Canadian snow crab. However, the expected return to growth of the Japanese economy should partly counterbalance this effect.
• Lobster: The strength of the U.S. economy's recovery combined with a slightly weaker Canadian dollar (in comparison to the American dollar over last year) should have a positive effect on the price of Canadian lobster. However, the model results indicate a large degree of uncertainty associated with changes in the North American supply of lobster. The results shown in Table 1 are based on the assumption of stable North American landings.
• Shrimp: Economic growth in the United States and the expected decrease in Greenland's landings should have a positive influence on the price of Canadian shrimp. However, the anticipated rise in the cost of fuel in 2012 could have a significant impact on shrimpers’ operating costs ^{Footnote 3}.
• Cod: Although the impact is modest, the combination of economic growth in the U.S. and a slightly weaker Canadian dollar in comparison to the American dollar presents positive prospects for the price of Canadian cod.