Statistical Modelling of the Landing Price
The following table shows the preliminary results of the econometric analysis of factors influencing the landing price of Canadian snow crab, lobster, shrimp and Atlantic cod. The data are expressed in logarithmic form; the coefficients can thus be interpreted as the expected variation in price as a percentage following a 1% increase in the value of the explanatory variable, all things being otherwise equal.
| Coefficient | Standard Deviation | Level of Significance | |
| Price for snow crab |
|
|
|
| North American landings |
-0.64 |
0.19 |
1% |
| US$/CAD$ |
-0.25 |
0.47 |
N.S. |
| YEN¥/CAD$ |
-1.53 |
0.35 |
1% |
| Japan GDP |
1.42 |
0.78 |
10% |
| Constant |
-1.60 |
13.53 |
N.S. |
| Observations (annual) |
21 |
||
| R2 |
0.7425 |
||
| Price for lobster |
|||
| Worldwide landings |
-1.84 |
0.25 |
1% |
| US$/CAD$ |
-0.87 |
0.16 |
1% |
| United States GDP |
2.38 |
0.19 |
1% |
| Constant |
-2.88 |
2.67 |
N.S. |
| Observations (annual) |
21 |
||
| R2 |
0.9213 |
||
| Price for shrimp |
|
|
|
| Canadian and Greenlandic landings |
-0.82 |
0.19 |
1% |
| US$/CAD$ |
-0.74 |
0.16 |
1% |
| EUR€/CAD$ |
-0.07 |
0.28 |
N.S. |
| United States GDP |
1.11 |
0.44 |
5% |
| Constant |
-1.84 |
3.77 |
N.S. |
| Observations (annual) |
21 |
||
| R2 |
0.8411 |
||
| Price for cod |
|
|
|
| North American landings |
-0.19 |
0.04 |
1% |
| US$/CAD$ |
-0.62 |
0.17 |
1% |
| EUR€/CAD$ |
-0.18 |
0.36 |
N.S. |
| United States GDP |
0.59 |
0.21 |
1% |
| Constant |
-6.26 |
4.04 |
N.S. |
| Observations (annual) |
21 |
||
| R2 |
0.8645 |
N.S. = not significant
Document sources: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Bank of Canada, RBC, TD, BNS, BMO, CIBC and NBC banks, The Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), Statistics Canada, Seafood.com News, Urner Barry, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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