Outlook for Commercial Fisheries

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing for snow crab in Russian waters has significantly affected the world snow crab price, and is believed to be a major factor in the observed declines of 15-20% (year over year) in monthly wholesale prices during the period May-September 2012. ^{Footnote 23} In Japan and the US, approximately 4.5 million kg of snow crab imported from Russia in January-September 2012 was not accounted for. ^{Footnote 24} However, low Japanese landings were an important factor in the recovery of the Canadian wholesale price in October and November 2012. For 2013, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game has set the 2013 TAC for snow crab at 66 million lbs. (30 million kg), a reduction of 25% compared to 2012. The Japanese Yen is expected to weaken against the Canadian dollar, negatively impacting on the Canadian landed price. From a market access and retention perspective, the Nova Scotia snow crab fishery, which accounted for 19% of Canadian landed quantity in 2011, has been certified sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). ^{Footnote 25}

Lobster

The year 2012 has been characterized by lobster supply gluts and exceptionally low prices. After seeing a small increase in the spring of 2012, a glut of lobster landed in Maine caused prices to fall dramatically in the month of July, which had important repercussions for the Gulf of Saint Lawrence lobster fishery. Average wholesale prices for live American lobster were under $4.00/lb in July 2012, well below the 10-year low recorded in 2010 for the month of July of $6.34/lb. The Scotia-Fundy fall lobster fishery has also seen very low landed prices, as landed quantities have remained strong in the face of a weaker demand. Lobster supply exerts an important influence on landed prices and will likely remain an important factor in determining the economic outlook for the 2013 fishing season.

Shrimp

The wholesale price of Northern shrimp has settled near $4.75/lb through 2012, following a 25% increase in 2011. ^{Footnote 26} NAFO is continuing to decrease quotas for Northern shrimp in Division 3L (i.e. 38% in 2011 and 22% planned for 2013). This division accounted for 9% of Canadian landings in 2011, and would reduce the overall Canadian TAC by 2%. This quota reduction is likely to put upward pressure on the landed price. In 2013, fuel costs are expected to fall slightly as crude oil prices decrease, which could potentially contribute to better margins for shrimp harvesters.

Cod

Cod stocks have fallen in Europe's Baltic and North Seas. As a result, the European Union agreed to an 8% reduction in the Baltic Sea TAC for 2013. ^{Footnote 27} Meanwhile, cod stocks in the Barents Sea are increasing and the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission increased their 2013 TAC for cod by 36% to a record 1 billion kg (i.e. a million tonnes). ^{Footnote 28} In 2010, this fishery represented 68% of worldwide Atlantic cod production. ^{Footnote 29} Wholesale prices have increased throughout 2012, with monthly averages increasing 20-60% year over year, setting a record high of $4.31/lb. in July 2012. ^{Footnote 30}