Research Document - 2005/007

Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock, February 2005

By Chouinard, G.A., L. Currie, G. Poirier, D. Swain, H. Benoît, T. Hurlbut, D. Daigle, L. Savoie

Abstract

The directed cod fishery on the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO 4T-Vn (November-April)) cod stock was closed in September 1993. In 1999, a limited commercial fishery for cod was opened with a total allowable catch (TAC) of 6,000 t. The TAC remained unchanged until 2003 when the fishery was closed. Total landings in 2003 amounted to 289 t. In 2004, the fishery was re-opened with a TAC of 3,000 t and landings were 2281 t. The 2004 fishery took place primarily between July and November. Catch rates for seines have remained relatively constant from 1999 to 2004. Fishermen consider that the state of the stock has improved. There were changes in research vessels for the 2003 and 2004 survey and the 2003 survey results are suspect. The 2004 research survey indicates little change in stock status but an increase in juvenile cod is noted. Sentinel trawl surveys have been conducted in 2003 and 2004 and provide a description of the distribution of cod in August and stock status was similar in the two years. The sentinel longline indicates a small increase in 2004. Natural mortality (M) appears to remain high. A value of 0.4 for M for the period since 1986 was again used in this assessment. The trends in population estimates indicate that population biomass remains low, similar to the mid-1990s, and is near the lowest observed in the period starting in 1950. Abundance and biomass declined slightly in recent years but has increased in the last year due to recruitment which is estimated to have improved. The spawning stock biomass in 2005 is estimated at 66,000 t, below the conservation limit reference point for this stock (80,000 t). Recruitment has been well below the historical average over the last decade but the estimates of the 2001 and particularly the 2002 year-classes suggest that these are more abundant than the preceding ones. Assuming continued high M but given the improvement in recruitment of recent years, catch projections indicate that spawning stock biomass could increase by about 6% with catches of 3, 000 t. Stock projections for other catch levels in 2005 are provided. Overall, the stock remains low and sustained rebuilding will require that catches be maintained to the lowest possible level and that additional good year-classes are produced.

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