Research Document - 2006/006

Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock, February 2006

By Chouinard, G.A., L. Currie, G.A. Poirier, T. Hurlbut, D. Daigle, and L. Savoie

Abstract

The cod stock of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO 4T and 4Vn (November to April) has not recovered since it collapsed in the early 1990s. In 2005, the TAC for the stock was set at 4,000 t. Estimated landings from all sources amounted to 2,815 t. The 2005 fishery took place primarily between July and December and the geographic distribution of catches was similar to 2004. The landings were composed primarily of fish of 7 and 8 years of age. Catch rates for seines were comparable to 2004 but lower than those observed from 1999 to 2002. In a telephone survey, fishermen indicated that the abundance of the stock was slightly higher than in 2004. The indices of abundance in numbers and weight for cod from the September bottom-trawl survey of the southern Gulf declined and were the lowest in the time-series starting in 1971. Sentinel trawl surveys have been conducted since 2003 and the abundance of cod was the lowest in the survey conducted in 2005. Similarly, the catch rates in the sentinel longline survey declined in 2005 and were the lowest in the time-series starting in 1995. Estimates of total mortality (Z) from survey data have been above 0.4 recently. While relative fishing mortality remains low compared to the period prior to 1993, natural mortality (M) appears to remain high. A value of 0.4 for M for the period since 1986 was again used in this assessment. The trends in population estimates indicate that population biomass and abundance remain low, similar to the mid-1990s. Spawning stock biomass estimates in 2005-2006 (55,000 t) are the lowest observed in the period starting in 1950 and well below the estimated conservation reference point for the stock of 80,000 t. Abundance and biomass has declined gradually since the late 1990’s. Recruitment has been well below the historical average over the last decade but the estimates of the 2001 and particularly the 2002 year-classes suggest that these are more abundant than the preceding ones. However, the first estimate of the 2003 year-class is very poor. Assuming continued high M and given the estimates of recruitment of recent years, catch projections indicate that spawning stock biomass could increase by about 2% with no fishery in 2006. Catches of about 2,000 t would result in no change in stock status while higher catches would be expected to result in further declines. Given the status of the stock relative to the limit reference point and the lack of significant improvement foreseen for the next year, it would be advisable to limit catches to the lowest level possible in order to avoid further declines.

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