Research Document - 2006/053
Assessment of the recovery potential of the eastern Canadian Arctic bowhead whale population by deterministic projections with a modified logistic growth model
By Dueck, L.P., and P. Richard
Abstract
A deterministic growth model employing a logistic growth function was used to simulate the population growth of the eastern Arctic bowhead whale population. Parameters in the model included Rmax (the natural intrinsic rate of increase of the population), K (the estimated carrying capacity of the ecosystem), Ψ (a shaping parameter that modifies the population growth rate as the population approaches theoretical carrying capacity), and C (human induced causes of mortality). A total of 612 scenarios were examined, based on the combinations of different levels for the parameters described above. The levels were selected to encompass the range of uncertainty in modeling the growth of the population as well as including harvest levels ranging from low or none, to levels that resulted in a decline in the population. The results of the model provide insight into the potential for recovery of the bowhead whale population in the eastern Arctic. Under the assumptions of the model, under moderate levels of human-induced mortality, all scenarios would lead to recovery of the population. The results provide a useful measure of comparison for stochastic modeling exercises incorporating error into growth parameters.
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