Research Document - 2007/053
Assessment of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in October 2006
By Brattey, J., N.G. Cadigan, B.P. Healey, E.F. Murphy and J.-C. Mahé
Abstract
This document summarizes scientific information used to determine the status of the cod stock in NAFO Subdiv. 3Ps off the south coast of Newfoundland. Principal sources of information available for this assessment were: reported landings from commercial fisheries (1959 - March 2006), oceanographic data, a time series (1973 - 2005) of abundance and biomass indices from Canadian winter/spring research vessel (RV) bottom trawl surveys, an industry offshore bottom trawl survey (1997 - 2005), inshore sentinel surveys (1995 - 2005), science logbooks from vessels < 35ft (1997 - 2005), industry logbooks for larger (> 35 ft) vessels (1998 - 2005), and tagging studies (1997 onwards). The fishery was still in progress at the time of the assessment and complete information on catch rates and age compositions from the 13,000 t TAC from 1 April 2006 to 31 March 2007 was not available. In addition, the spring 2006 RV survey was not completed due to operational difficulties with the vessel; consequently, there has been no update of the abundance, biomass, or catch rate indices, or of biological information (growth, maturation rate, and condition) from this survey. In this assessment, a model of the dynamics of the stock using sequential population analysis was not accepted and the assessment is based primarily on analyses of survey indices and trends in catch. All four indices of population size are presently below average; the two offshore (trawl) indices have been declining, whereas the two inshore (fixed gear) indices have been fairly stable. Catches of cod in the 2005 GEAC survey, particularly for the 1997 and 1998 year classes, were much lower than those in preceding years. Sentinel line trawl catches of the 1997 and 1998 year classes were not markedly different from those of other recent cohorts at the same age. New information on recruitment from the GEAC survey and sentinel linetrawl is consistent with the previous (2005) assessment and indicates that year classes produced during 2000 - 03 are mostly (3 of 4) below average. Two strong year classes (1997 - 98) have been well represented in the catch during 2003 - 05; however, these are followed by weaker recruitment (2000 - 03 year classes) and at current catch levels it is anticipated that the stock abundance will decline over the next few years.
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