Research Document - 2010/121
Information on abundance and harvest of eastern Hudson Bay beluga (Delphinapterus leucas)
By T. Doniol-Valcroze, M.O. Hammill, and V. Lesage
Abstract
Subsistence harvest of beluga whales by Nunavik communities is directed towards a mixture of two populations: the Western Hudson Bay stock (WHB) and the depleted Eastern Hudson Bay stock (EHB). The 2010 harvest consisted of 45 beluga killed near Sanikiluaq (Belcher Islands), 16 in the eastern Hudson Bay area, 15 in Ungava Bay, 146 in Hudson Strait in the spring and 58 in the fall. Since 2009, it is assumed based on genetic data that all animals killed in EHB, 10% of those killed in the spring and summer in Hudson Strait, and 20% of those killed in Ungava Bay and during the fall in Hudson Strait are EHB beluga. It is also assumed that 12% of beluga killed by Sanikiluaq hunters belong to the EHB stock. Using these proportions, the 2010 harvest is equivalent to 51 EHB beluga.
A population model incorporating updated information on harvest statistics and stock composition was fitted to aerial survey estimates using Bayesian methods, and resulted in a 1985 population estimate of 4,118 animals with a 95% Credible Interval (CI) of 2,219–8765. The lowest abundance point was estimated at 2,977 (95% CI 1,970–4,674) for the year 2001. The model estimated a population in 2010 of 3,034 individuals (95% CI 1,390–6,181). At current harvest levels, the population has probably remained stable over the last few years. The model estimated struck-and-loss at 56% (95% CI 22–144%) and growth rate at 2.7% per year (95% CI -3.1–8.5%).
Removing 50 EHB animals in future harvests has a 50% probability of causing a decline in the population, while lower harvests would likely allow some recovery. Limiting the harvest of EHB animals to 10 individuals reduced the probability of decline to 25%. Conversely, a harvest of 100 EHB whales has a 75% probability of leading to population decline. No harvest scenario could produce a 5% probability of decline, since the probability of decline in absence of harvest was 18%. However, the number of animals that can be harvested without causing a decline in the EHB beluga population will depend on how catches are distributed between Eastern Hudson Bay, Ungava Bay and Hudson Strait, as well as the proportion of spring/summer vs. fall catches in Hudson Strait.
Analyses of the beluga harvest in Hudson Strait, combining age to probabilistic information on stock of origin determined from mitochondrial DNA, showed that the age structure of EHB beluga was strongly skewed towards younger individuals and contained less older individuals compared to the non-EHB whales. These results might indicate a disproportional catch of younger EHB animals, significant harvesting pressure on the EHB stock or both.
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