Research Document - 2012/093

Analysis of catch options for aboriginal and recreational fisheries for Atlantic salmon from the Margaree River (Nova Scotia) for 2012

By C. Breau and G. Chaput

Abstract

A risk analysis of catch options for aboriginal and recreational fisheries for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from the Margaree River (Nova Scotia) for 2012 is presented. This analysis is provided in response to a request from the First Nations communities of Nova Scotia for additional food, social and ceremonial access to salmon. The forecasts of returns of small salmon (<63 cm fork length) and large salmon (>= 63 cm fork length) in 2012 are based on a hierarchical model that incorporates the uncertainties and the variations in annual returns for the years 1987 to 2011. A correction for autocorrelation of the time series is incorporated in the forecasts. Recreational fisheries effort is predicted from the previous four years and catches and catch rates for 2012 are estimated using catchability coefficients by salmon size group from the recreational fishery derived during the 1988 to 1996 assessment years. The management objectives are to meet or exceed with a high probability the previously defined conservation requirement for large salmon (1,036 fish) and a corresponding small salmon requirement of 582 fish for a 1:1 female to male ratio. An alternate objective for small salmon is defined based on an equivalent exploitation rate in the fisheries for small salmon and large salmon. The expected surplus to conservation of large salmon in 2012 that would result in a 95% probability of meeting or exceeding conservation is 917 fish. For small salmon, there is a 92% chance that the returns would exceed the 582 fish objective. The expected surplus of large salmon represents a median exploitation rate of 27.5%. For this exploitation rate and at a 50% chance of meeting or exceeding it, there would be a catch option of 271 small salmon in 2012.

Complete document (PDF, 469 KB)

Accessibility Notice

This document is available in PDF format. If the document is not accessible to you, please contact the Secretariat to obtain another appropriate format, such as regular print, large print, Braille or audio version.