Research Document - 2012/102
Estimated returns of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to the Miramichi River and each branch, 1998 to 2011
By G. Chaput and S. Douglas
Abstract
A hierarchical Bayesian mark and recapture model is used to estimate returns of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) adults by size group to the Miramichi River and to each branch for 1998 to 2011. The model uses auxiliary data from counts of salmon at three headwater barrier fences to estimate returns annually for the early-run (prior to August 1) and for the whole year. Model fit is assessed by examining observed to predicted recaptures at three estuary trapnet locations. Retrospective analysis is used to assess the stability of previous years’ estimates of returns as recent years observations are added to the model. Estimated returns using the hierarchical model are less uncertain and differ in some years from independent annual assessments. Future modifications to the model include incorporating angling catch and effort data and extending the model back to 1984 when mark and recapture programs were less intensive and for which angling data and barrier count information could be used to advantage to estimate the return of Atlantic salmon to the Miramichi River.
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