Research Document - 2012/136
Recovery Potential Modelling of Pugnose Minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae) in Canada
By J.A.M. Young and M.A. Koops
Abstract
The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has assessed the Pugnose Minnow as Threatened in Canada (COSEWIC 2012). Here we present population modelling to assess population sensitivity, determine population-based recovery targets, and conduct simulations to estimate the impact of transient (one-time) harm in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). Our analyses demonstrated that the dynamics of Pugnose Minnow populations are very sensitive to perturbations that affect the survival of immature individuals or the fertility of first time spawners. Harm to these portions of the life cycle should be minimized to avoid jeopardizing the survival and future recovery of the Canadian population. Based on an objective of demographic sustainability (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term), we propose population abundance recovery targets of ~6,448,000 adult Pugnose Minnow (ages 1+). This abundance requires, at minimum, 73.2 ha of suitable habitat. Current available habitat in Canada is estimated at over 6,000 ha. Current population abundances and trajectories are unknown but are suspected to be in severe decline. Even low levels of allowable transient harm may compromise recovery of Pugnose Minnow or hasten its extirpation.
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