Research Document - 2012/154

A draft framework to quantify and cumulate risks of impacts from large development projects for marine mammal populations: A case study using shipping associated with the Mary River Iron Mine project

By J.W. Lawson and V. Lesage

Abstract

The abundance and distribution of marine mammal populations is influenced by a variety of factors, including ice structure and presence, resource availability, reproductive status, predator distribution, or more generally, mortality risks. While mortality incorporates natural and anthropogenic sources, for most managed populations the latter source has focussed on population losses due to hunting effort. Recently, anthropogenically-related, non-harvest removals are being considered for managed marine mammal populations, such as the role of climate change as a population-level factor that might reduce carrying capacity and/or increase mortality. More "proximal" negative consequences to marine mammal populations could arise from industrial activities and associated noise, vessel strikes, or introduction of new predators or other invasive species. There is currently no national approach as to how impacts of marine development projects should be evaluated by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science, which may lead to a perception of inconsistency and unfairness in the reviews. Given the recent increase in the number of large marine development projects requiring DFO reviews of potential impacts, there is a pressing need to develop a national approach to impact assessment, threshold setting, and monitoring standards, and to develop guidelines for the industry outlining the information needed for adequate impact assessment, and proposed methodologies for evaluating and mitigating impacts. Here, we outline a general framework to quantify and cumulate risks of impacts on marine mammal populations associated with marine development project, and which has been used to assess marine mammal risks from exposure to vessel noise or ship strikes associated with the Mary River Iron Mine project. We believe this framework could be extended to encompass other types of anthropogenic activities, and would benefit from further expert review to refine threshold values of impact and to determine if it is sufficiently precautionary.

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