Research Document - 2013/013
Recovery Potential Modelling of Carmine Shiner (Notropis percobromus) in Canada
By J.A.M. Young and M.A. Koops
Abstract
The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) had assessed the Carmine Shiner (Notropis percobromus) as Threatened in Canada (2006). Here we present population modelling to assess allowable harm, determine population-based recovery targets, and conduct long-term projections of population recovery in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). Our analyses demonstrated that the dynamics of Carmine Shiner populations are very sensitive to perturbations that affect fecundity, and survival of young of the year. Harm to these portions of the life cycle should be minimized to avoid jeopardizing the survival and future recovery of Canadian populations. Based on an objective of demographic sustainability (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term), and assuming catastrophic decline events take place with 10% probability per generation (~8% annually), we propose abundance recovery targets of at least 8 880 000 adult Carmine Shiner (aged 1+), requiring ~3300 ha of suitable habitat. In the absence of mitigating efforts, additional harm or habitat limitations, we estimate that a growing Carmine Shiner population will take approximately 12 years to reach this recovery target if starting from a population of 20 000 adults. Recovery or preservation strategies which incorporate improvements in the most sensitive Carmine Shiner vital rates will have the greatest effect on population growth.
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