Research Document - 2013/087
Assessing the status of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2012
By B.P. Healey, E.F. Murphy, J. Brattey, M.J. Morgan, D. Maddock Parsons, and J. Vigneau
Abstract
The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) M Subdiv. 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) Regional Assessment Process (RAP) held during October of 2012. Stock status was updated based upon information collected up to spring 2012. Principal sources of information available for the assessments were: a time series of abundance and biomass indices from Canadian winter/spring research vessel (RV) bottom trawl surveys, inshore sentinel surveys, science logbooks from vessels < 35 ft, reported landings from commercial fisheries, oceanographic data, and tagging studies.
Total landings for the 2011-12 management year (April 1-March 31) were 6,025 t or just 52% of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), and this marks the third consecutive season that the TAC has not been fully taken. The 2012-13 fishery was still in progress at the time of the RAP with provisional landings to date totaling of 2,000 t. The removals through recreational fishing are unknown since 2007, but based on previous estimates are thought to be a small fraction (~1%) of the commercial landings.
The abundance and biomass indices from the 2012 DFO RV spring survey were both higher than those in 2011. In 2012, the abundance index was above average (average of 1997-2012 as survey area was expanded in 1997) whereas the biomass index was near average. The survey was dominated by young fish which are not yet of commercial size. Sentinel gillnet catch rates have been very low since 1999, and the 2011 gillnet index was the lowest in the time‑series. Sentinel linetrawl catch rates from the past three years have also been below average. Gillnet catch rates from logbooks of vessels < 35' have been stable since 1999. Linetrawl catch-rates decreased over 2006-10, but increased in 2011 and are presently at the time‑series average.
Over 2009-12, Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) has increased considerably. The SSB was estimated to be below the Limit Reference Point (LRP) during 2008 and 2009. The 2012 estimate is 64% above the LRP, and the probability of being below the LRP in 2012 is very low (0.01). Three-year projections were conducted assuming future mortality rates were within ± 20% of current values (2009-11 average). Results indicated that SSB will increase if total mortality is reduced, and remain relatively stable if mortality remains at current levels. The Spawning Stock Biomass is projected to decrease if total mortality is above current values. Overall, the probability of being below the LRP in 2013 is very low (0.01 to 0.05). By the end of the projection period (2015) the probability of being below the LRP ranges from 0 to 0.16.
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