Research Document - 2013/101
Haddock on the Southern Scotian Shelf and Bay of Fundy in 2011 (NAFO Division 4X5Y)
By M.A. Showell, D. Themelis, R.K. Mohn, and P. Comeau
Abstract
Landings of 4X5Y haddock in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Division 4X5Y in the fishing year ending 31 March 2010 were 5,831 t, relative to a quota of 7,000 t and 5,370 t in the fishing year ending 31 March 2011, relative to a quota of 6,000 t. The quota in the 2011 fishing year remains at 6,000 t. The summer research vessel survey biomass index in 2011 was below the short (5 year: 50,470 t), medium (15 year: 51,434 t) and long-term (since 1970: 56,686 t) averages, and has been relatively stable over the past eight years. The weight at age of 4X5Y haddock remains low as there have been declines in both length at age and condition for most ages since the early 1990s. Recent recruitment has been variable with poor year classes in 2007 and 2008 and large year classes in 2009 and 2010. Based on a sequential population analysis model, the spawning stock biomass (SSB: ages 4+) has remained relatively stable over the past two decades. A strong retrospective pattern (tendency to overestimate biomass) in the model indicates that recent increases in SSB are likely overestimates. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) was estimated as 14,700 t and SSB at MSY spawning stock biomass Maximum sustainable yield (SSBMSY) was estimated at 52,000 t. A limit reference point (LRP) of 40% SSBMSY (20,800 t) and upper reference point (UPR) of 80% SSBMSY (41,600 t) are suggested as illustrative biological reference points. The SSB of 4X5Y haddock is considered likely to be within the cautious zone (above the LRP) and unlikely to be in the critical zone, despite uncertainties with the model. The model was considered insufficient to provide meaningful projections for the next two years. A framework review for 4X5Y haddock is recommended, given the continuing strong retrospective pattern in the model and its poor fit to the survey indices.
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