Research Document - 2016/011

Simulation Modelling Tools to Evaluate Alternative Fishery Closure Area Network Designs for Shallow-water Benthic Invertebrates in British Columbia

By N.M.T. Duprey, J.M.R. Curtis, J.L. Finney, and C.M. Hand

Abstract

The suitability of alternative tools or proxies for designing fisheries closure area networks depends first and foremost on the management objectives and how these are articulated in an operational sense. For instance map-based approaches (e.g. habitat suitability models, MARXAN analyses) may be appropriate in cases when management objectives are expressed simply in terms of a target area to be incorporated into the network. Alternatively, more sophisticated simulation models that account for dynamic interactions between fisheries, populations, and environmental processes (e.g. ocean circulation) may be required when management objectives are expressed in terms of changes in the patterns of distribution or abundance of species. In this paper we describe and apply a set of quantitative tools that can be used to provide advice on the number, size and spacing of fishery closure areas. The tools build on software packages and programs (ArcGIS, RAMAS, R, GRIP) that are currently available and being applied to address a broad range of marine spatial planning objectives. Together these tools form key components of a simulator that couples four sub-models of habitat suitability, metapopulation dynamics, dispersal and fisheries management. We apply these tools to demonstrate how they might be used to inform decisions on fishery closure area design in Area 12 using Parastichopus californicus as a case study species. We show how the results of a model sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate alternative network designs using a range of performance criteria. We conclude with a discussion of how the set of tools may be applied to address a broad range of spatial management questions for a broad range of species in any area provided sufficient data are available.

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