Research Document - 2016/018
Assessing the status of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2013 and 2014
By R. M. Rideout, D. W. Ings, B. P. Healey, J. Brattey, M. J. Morgan, D. Maddock Parsons, and J. Vigneau
Abstract
The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Regional Peer Review Process meeting held October 14‑16, 2014. Stock status was updated based upon information collected up to spring 2014. Principal sources of information available for the assessment were: a time series of abundance and biomass indices from Canadian winter/spring research vessel (RV) bottom trawl surveys, inshore sentinel surveys, science logbooks from vessels < 35 ft., logbooks from vessels > 35 ft., reported landings from commercial fisheries, oceanographic data, and tagging studies.
Total landings for the 2013‑14 management year (April 1 March 31) were 5,428 t or just 47% of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), and this marks the fifth consecutive season that the TAC has not been fully taken. The 2014‑15 fishery was still in progress at the time of the meeting. The removals through recreational fishing are unknown since 2007, but based on previous estimates are thought to be a small fraction (~ 1%) of the commercial landings.
The abundance and biomass indices from the DFO RV spring survey increased substantially in 2013 but declined in 2014. In 2014, the abundance index was about average (average of 1997 2014 as survey area was expanded in 1997) whereas the biomass index was below average. The survey was dominated by young fish which are not yet of commercial size. Sentinel gillnet catch rates have been very low and stable since 1999. Sentinel linetrawl catch rates have been below average for the past five years and the 2013 catch rate was the lowest in the time series. Gillnet catch rates from logbooks of vessels < 35 ft. have been stable since 1999. Linetrawl catch-rates decreased over 2006 10, but subsequently increased and are presently at the time series average.
Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) increased considerably over 2009‑12 and has since been relatively stable. The 2014 estimate is approximately 1.6 times higher than the LRP, and the stock is currently in the ‘cautious zone’ according to DFO’s Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The probability of being below the LRP in 2014 is very low (~ 0.01). Projection of the stock to 2015 was conducted assuming mortality rates will be within ± 20% of current values (2011‑13 average). All projection scenarios indicate that the 2015 SSB will remain stable or increase from the 2014 estimate. In each of the scenarios, the probability of being below the LRP in 2015 is very low (< 0.01).
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