Research Document - 2016/049

Pilot ecosystem risk assessment to assess cumulative risk to species in the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA)

By Cathryn Clarke Murray, Megan E Mach, Miriam O

Abstract

The challenge of managing areas with diverse human activities and effectively evaluating environmental, social and economic trade-offs requires Ecosystem-based Oceans Management. A pilot ecological risk assessment for the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA) was conducted to test the effectiveness of an ecological risk assessment framework developed by O et al. (2015). During the scoping phase, a subset of 17 significant ecological components (SECs) was chosen to represent major functional groups in PNCIMA based on their data availability. Marine, land-based and global activities currently occurring within the area and their associated stressors were identified using an interaction matrix with accompanying evidence tables because Pathways of Effects models were under development and therefore unavailable. A subset of stressors was evaluated (76 in total) for the identified activities. Risk was evaluated using four variables: Spatial scale, Temporal scale, Load, and Consequence. Scoring was based on literature review and an uncertainty score assigned for each variable taking into consideration data availability, quality and scientific consensus. Risk scores for each stressor-SEC combination were calculated using one of two methods:

1. Binned exposure using the methods as outlined by O et al. (2015); and
2. Uncertainty incorporation using Monte Carlo simulation to directly incorporate the uncertainty scores in the risk calculation.

Cumulative risk for each SEC was calculated by summing the risk scores for each SEC. Using the uncertainty incorporation method, the SECs with the highest cumulative risk were Dungeness Crab, Salmon, Sponges, and Seagrasses. The highest ranking stressors across all SECs were trawling-related and most of the highest ranked stressors for each SEC were trawl-related. The relative ranking of risk was similar between the two risk calculation methods but the Uncertainty Incorporation showed where uncertainty was highest between exposure and consequence, and could be used to prioritize research and focus management efforts. The Qualitative Level One ecological risk assessment was found to be an effective triage tool, providing a relative ranking of SECs and stressors. However, the current pilot project is not a complete risk assessment for PNCIMA because it is based on a subset of SECs and stressors affecting PNCIMA and the resulting scores have not been vetted by experts. Therefore the results should not be used for policy or management decisions at this stage.

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