Research Document - 2016/077
Model estimates of Cumberland Sound beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population size and total allowable removals
By Marianne Marcoux and M.O. Hammill
Abstract
The subsistence harvest of Pangnirtung, Nunavut, is directed towards a single stock of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) in Cumberland Sound, which forms a separate stock among belugas in the Canadian Eastern Arctic. A population model incorporating updated information on harvest statistics (1920–2015) was fitted to four aerial survey estimates using Bayesian methods, resulting in a current estimated population of 1,000 (rounded to the nearest 100) animals. The management objective is to achieve a population of 5,000 animals by 2091. This could be expressed as an interim target of 1,235 animals within a decade (2026). At current reported harvest levels of 41 animals, the probability of the population declining over a 10-year period is 1. The probability that the population would increase to the interim target was 0.3, 0.25 and 0.1 for reported harvests of 0, 6, and 25 animals respectively.
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