Research Document 2017/062
Management Approaches, Abundance Indices and Total Allowable Harvest levels of Belugas in Hudson Bay
By Hammill, M.O., Mosnier, A., Gosselin, J.-F., Matthews, C.J.D., Marcoux, M., and Ferguson, S.H.
Abstract
A surplus production model that incorporated information on harvests and stock composition of the harvest was fitted to aerial survey data from eastern and western Hudson Bay belugas using Bayesian methods. For eastern Hudson Bay, the model produced an abundance estimate of 3400 animals and indicated that the population is stable. For eastern Hudson Bay, the sustainable yield, which maintains a stable population, was 68 belugas. Two Precautionary Approach frameworks were developed and allowed for harvests of 17-61 animals depending on the probability of achieving recovery to healthy levels within 50 years. For western Hudson Bay, the model indicated that the population could be stable or increasing depending on model assumptions related to environmental carrying capacity. It was concluded that the best estimate of abundance for this stock was from the aerial survey flown in 2015 (N=54,500). The Potential Biological Removal method was used to estimate allowable removal levels from the western Hudson Bay stock. Depending on recovery factors applied, PBR estimates varied from 251 to 1,004 for recovery factors of 0.1 to 1. The most recent harvest data of Western Hudson Bay whales was 584 animals in 2015.
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