Research Document 2017/063

Assessing the status of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2016

By Rideout, R.M., Ings, D.W., Healey, B.P., Brattey, J., Morgan, M.J., Maddock Parsons, D., and Vigneau, J.

Abstract

The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Regional Peer Review Process meeting held October 17-19, 2016.

Total landings for the 2015-16 management year (April 1-March 31) were 6,427 t or just 48% of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC). This marks the sixth consecutive season that the TAC has not been fully taken.

Survey abundance estimates from the DFO research vessel (RV) spring survey have been about average in recent years, whereas biomass estimates have generally been below average. Sentinel gillnet catch rates have been very low and stable since 1999. Sentinel linetrawl catch rates have been below average for the past six years and the 2015 catch rate was the lowest in the time series.

Estimates of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) derived from a survey-based (SURBA) cohort model increased considerably over 2009-12 but have since declined. Although the stock is currently estimated to be in the Cautious Zone (18% above Blim) as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework, the probability that the stock is in the critical zone is 0.22, which is a concern. There are further concerns that the current estimate of spawning stock biomass (SSB) could be biased as the model has overestimated SSB in recent years (i.e. the assessment has been subject to downward retrospective revisions of SSB). The current SSB is very young, composed to a large extent (46%) of 4-5 year old fish. These fish are from the strong 2011 and 2012 year classes that have not yet fully matured. Estimated total mortality for fish in the age range of 5-10 years is currently very high (three year average Z = 0.73), which is a large concern especially considering that reported landings have been only about half of the TACs over this time period.

Short-term projections of the stock were not performed due to concerns related to variability in the survey data, the strong directional retrospective pattern in model estimates, and the unavailability of recent estimates of commercial fish weights-at-age. However, it is generally noted that biomass of the stock is likely to decline sharply in the coming years if the current high mortality rate persists.

Complete document (PDF, 6,079 KB)

Accessibility Notice

This document is available in PDF format. If the document is not accessible to you, please contact the Secretariat to obtain another appropriate format, such as regular print, large print, Braille or audio version.