Research Document 2018/041

Assessment of 4X5Y Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) in 2016

By M. Finley, Y. Wang, and H.H. Stone

Abstract

Landings of Haddock in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Divisions (NAFO) 4X5Y in the 2014/15 and 2015/16 fishing years were 2,825 tonnes (t) and 2,926 t, respectively, relative to a quota of 5,100 t. The Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Summer Research Vessel (RV) survey biomass index in 2015 and 2016 was 69,800 t and 62,700 t, respectively; both years are above the short (5 year: 48,193 t) and long-term (since 1970: 55,470 t) averages. For both the commercial fishery and the DFO Summer RV survey, values for the mean weight-at-age and length-at-age show a decline from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s and then a levelling off or a modest increase, followed by the lowest weight-at-age for many ages occurring in 2015. The beginning of year spawning stock biomass for 2016 was estimated to be 33,770 t using a Virtual Population Analysis (VPA), which is above the established biomass limit reference point (B_lim) of 19,700 t and the long-term average of 32,258 t. The preliminary estimates for the 2013 year class at Age 1 remain extraordinarily high for this stock at 264 million recruits, and the estimate for the 2014 year class (Age 1 in 2015) is 74 million, above the long-term geometric mean for Age 1 of 20 million recruits. The estimated fishing mortality (F) for ages 6 to 10 in 2015 was 0.05 for 4X5Y Haddock, therefore below the fishing mortality reference point (F_ref) in both the Healthy Zone (F_ref=0.25) and Cautious Zone (F=0.15). In the absence of an Upper Stock Reference point, it cannot be distinguished whether the stock is in the Cautious or Healthy Zone; therefore, deterministic and stochastic projections were conducted using both F_ref=0.25 and F=0.15 scenarios. Under the various harvest scenarios examined, the spawning stock biomass is projected to increase to around 100,000 t, double the previous peak observed from the 1985 to 2015 time series. The 2013 year class at Age 4 is expected to contribute 61% of the 1+ population biomass in 2017 and 59% in 2018 (Age 5).  Notably, the 2013 year class appears to be much stronger than anything previously observed, but there is uncertainty around this estimate given the retrospective pattern in the model, the small number of observations in both the survey and fishery, and the apparent mismatch between survey abundance estimates and the VPA in recent years. The future performance of the 2013 and 2014 year classes will impact the stock dynamics.

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