Research Document 2018/062
Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) in NAFO Subareas 3 and 4 in 2016
By Doniol-Valcroze, T., Van Beveren, E., Légaré, B., Girard, L., and Castonguay, M.
Abstract
The present stock assessment includes the best possible estimates of unreported catches and uses a new statistical catch-at-age model. The new assessment therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the spawning biomass. According to the results of this assessment, the Atlantic mackerel stock in sub-regions 3 and 4 reached its lowest level in history in 2012. The statistical model suggests that catch levels in recent years have allowed slow growth from 2013 to 2016 and a slight improvement in the age structure, but does not indicate any significant recruitment episode since 1999. Projections that take into account unreported catches (estimated at 6,000 t) suggest that the probability of an increase in biomass is greater than 77% for total (declared + unreported) catches of less than 16,000 t. However, given that the stock is currently in the critical zone, priority should be given to rebuilding, and total catches should be limited to promote the increase of the spawning biomass to allow the population to at least reach the Limit Reference Point.
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